Elections Do you see any possible scenario where Trump wins in 2020?

[Andy Capp]

Like I've already seen expressed in here by lefties, the left is simply not unified in defeating Trump at any cost.

I agree. Otherwise there would have been a back-room deal to voluntarily narrow the candidate field a long time ago. Sadly, it's just more proof that if there is one thing Americans learn right from the cradle, it's that selfishness is the key to success.

 

[Stoic1]

Yes, it's possible. The 2 important questions, imo, are:

1) Democrat turnout.
2) To what extent do white, college educated, indoctrinated women vote differently from last time.

Fixed for accuracy.

3) The economy WILL BE PIVOTAL. If it stay up he is locked. If the DOW slides under 23k he is in danger. Under 20k and he will have serious problems.

4) The Democratic candidate. The favorites right now cannot beat him.

 

[Fight To Win]

I see it being overwhelmingly possible. There is no one the left has offered up that can beat him. These people and their supporters? Have been driven absolutely, gibbering insane by Trump and everything they're proposing is unAmerican and we don't want it. Election day will reflect that. Again.

 

[Andy Capp]

yes because the only time a incombent lost in our lifetimes was because of a third party canidate getting a lot of his votes i.e. Bush Senior and Perot. Incumbents just tend to win

Does that apply to Jimmy Carter (genuine question, my memory is lacking on the details)? If not, speak for your own lifetime, homie.

 

[IGotAHugePeckah]

Like I've already seen expressed in here by lefties, the left is simply not unified in defeating Trump at any cost. If Biden gets the nom, a lot of progressives are going to defiantly stay at home. If Bernie or Warren get the nom, they are offering a lot of shaky proposals, that will have the more centrist Lefties a little hesitant to vote for them.

Trump on the other hand has a very solid and dedicated base that ain't going anywhere. That have to beat that, plus the outliers. While not guaranteed, Trump has pretty damn good chance at getting reelected.

Interesting. You think a lot of the progressives are in the "never Biden" camp to the point where they won't go out to the polls?

 

[Social Distance Warrior]

I see no way trump doesnt win

expand on this please

 

[Social Distance Warrior]

Fixed for accuracy.

3) The economy WILL BE PIVOTAL. If it stay up he is locked. If the DOW slides under 23k he is in danger. Under 20k and he will have serious problems.

4) The Democratic candidate. The favorites right now cannot beat him.

Who do you think can beat him?

if your were the Dem strategist, who would you pick to face Trump?

 

[Damien Karras]

Fixed for accuracy.

3) The economy WILL BE PIVOTAL. If it stay up he is locked. If the DOW slides under 23k he is in danger. Under 20k and he will have serious problems.

4) The Democratic candidate. The favorites right now cannot beat him.

I came in this thread to summarize this point about the economy being the deciding factor, not which Democratic candidate wins the nomination.

 

[HereticBD]

Interesting. You think a lot of the progressives are in the "never Biden" camp to the point where they won't go out to the polls?

Undoubtedly. They want a revolution, and some would love nothing more than to see the DNC get what's coming to them(even if at the hands of Trump) if they go down the establishment route again.

 

[Headkicktoleg]

Far left voter will be pissed their fav didn't win the dem nomination. They will then vote for Trump hoping 4 more years will steer the country farther left once he's gone.

 

[Kitafuji]

Yes, there are many possible scenarios and a very good chance. Trump's core support lies with a very reliable group, old white people, and he and his party are completely and utterly unrestricted by honesty, intellectual consistency, or policy coherency, so he'll once again get a much, much wider berth in what is acceptable for him.

His electoral vote share could be anywhere from 207 to 312 by my count

This is a big reason why Trump will win a 2nd term. The msm and their ilk will try and tell you this "oh it's only old white people who vote for Trump".
I am a middle aged Asian dude and I am voting for Trump.
The left want to give everything away for free and want the 1%ers (exempting themselves of coarse) to pay for it.
They have a giant christmas list of freebies but have no concept of how to pay for it.

 

[Big Nasty Edison]

Interesting. You think a lot of the progressives are in the "never Biden" camp to the point where they won't go out to the polls?

I know several young millenial leftists in this camp. Not sure how good of examples they are to the larger group, but when their candidate loses the primary they will stay home or vote 3rd party despite hating Trump and the GOP.

 

[evansusmc2]

Of course it’s hard for you to believe, that’s how propaganda works...


What you don’t see is me in the hood the other day, having a black dude tell me he loves trump (I didn’t bring up the subject). If you think the black vote is gonna come out and rally around just any democrat, you’re in for a surprise.


It’s at least 51/49 in favor of trump.

Well to be fair Trump only got 2% of the black female vote and about 17% of the black male vote. Those are some pretty crappy numbers. But obviously many blacks voted against him solely on him being a white male. So I really do think those numbers will be better next time around for Trump.

 

[all caps]

expand on this please

All I can say is, in my opinion, there are no coincidences, no accidents and nothing happens by chance.

 

[PainIsLIfe]

I'm Canadian so I'm speaking as an outsider here, but it's really hard to envision Trump winning a second term. And yeah, I know, they said he couldn't win a first term. But I think there are some big factors Trump had on his side the first time that won't be present this time.

1) I think the Democrats, in the face of constant reporting and polling that said Trump had absolutely no chance, really took their foot off the gas and a lot of voters just stayed home, as they felt a Hillary victory was inevitable. In contrast, Trump supporters felt a real "underdog" urgency and showed up at the polls in larger percentages. I can only imagine that Democrat voters will be out in record numbers this time around.

2) A lot of people (including myself) just wanted to see what a Trump presidency would look like. What would happen if a complete political outsider was elected? Politicians are always breaking their promises... maybe he'll be different. He's rich as fuck and doesn't need to take dirty money from anyone... maybe he'll actually look out for the little guy. Well, the bloom is clearly off the rose at this point - he won't have that "novelty" factor going in.

3) Where once he was a fresh candidate full of exciting promises and intrigue, now he's proven to be complete disaster and racked up countless gaffs and faux pas over the last 3 years. No, he's not going to "drain the swamp" - if he was, he'd have done it by now.

I know Trump still has a strong base of ride-or-die supporters, and a large chunk of the country who may not be fond of him but are lifelong Republican voters... but it's just hard to imagine he wins another term after the complete shit show his administration has been.

But is it possible?

Reparations, Free Healthcare for Illegals, Banning All Private Insurance Plans, Higher Taxes, Gun Bans.

Yes, I can see him winning the EC again.

 

[Social Distance Warrior]

All I can say is, in my opinion, there are no coincidences, no accidents and nothing happens by chance.

I don't remember what movie that is from.

 

[cottagecheesefan]

I think it will come down to how the economy is doing. If the stock market, among other things, continues to stay where it is and/or go up, I think he easily wins. If it goes down, he easily loses.

 

[Fawlty]

I suppose the best argument for a big Dem win is your "bloom off the rose" point, because there were some curious Trump voters. But is the bloom really off the rose for them? I don't know if that's true. The default position is that elections are getting closer and the candidates matter less, and incumbents in strong economies are very difficult to beat.

Look at it this way. When a potted plant can win 45% of the vote, not only is it very hard to determine what factors really matter, but there can't be many factors that matter a lot. So, it can't be true that all of the potential factors are super important. We do know that incumbency/familiarity is very important, a strong economy is very important, and in the pre-Trump era major scandal was very important, though it may not be very important now.

The top factor for me that tells me this will probably be a very tight race is that Trump has a historically flat approval rating and his supporters are unmovable. Does the wilting rose mean lower turnout for Republicans, even though it doesn't mean lower approval ratings? Maybe, but you couldn't be confident in that.

 

[Seano]

When you look at Trump and how seemingly unpopular he is, you'd think he'd lose handily. That said, I think the left has the same issue they had in 2016. I don't think anyone likes what is being offered up on that side either. There's no excitement ,at least.

 

[Dirt Road Soldier]

The further left the democrats push themselves, the less likely they are to win in the midwest and the rust belt. Combine that with Biden being the likely nominee and his charisma being that of a moldy wet rag, and they are setting themselves up for failure.

Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me to see them concentrate more on trying to flip the Senate to prevent Trump from getting any more of his free SCOTUS picks, because there is no way Ginsburg lasts through another term.