Elections Do you see any possible scenario where Trump wins in 2020?

Discussion in 'The War Room' started by IGotAHugePeckah, Sep 10, 2019.

  1. Seano

    Seano Hands of bone

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    Well, so is about half this country.
     
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  2. MPD-Psycho

    MPD-Psycho Silver Belt

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    I thought he’s almost guaranteed to win?
     
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  3. Paradigm

    Paradigm Gold Belt

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    Most Americans are idiots and don't understand their own taxes. HR Block holds a good amount of US taxpayer data due to how many returns they process a year.

    Tax refund size does not equal tax liability for the year...

    "H&R Block (NYSE:HRB) data through March 31, 2019 shows the size of its clients’ tax refunds is up 1.4 percent under the first year of tax reform and new withholding tables, while overall tax liability is down 24.9 percent."

    https://www.hrblock.com/tax-center/newsroom/irs/tax-law-and-policy/tcja-impact/

    So even though the average tax refund size was only up 1.4%, the more important figure of tax liability was reduced by almost 1/4th. This doesn't help people???

    {<huh}
    <{vega}>
     
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  4. HereticBD

    HereticBD Titanium Belt

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    He said from his fantasy land, where slavery reparations and free healthcare for illegal immigrants aren't being seriously proposed by Dems...
     
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  5. Amerikuracana

    Amerikuracana Titanium Belt

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    That's what anybody with a brain looking in from the outside would see.
     
  6. Oliver Clothesoff

    Oliver Clothesoff Brown Belt Platinum Member

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    I don't see how Democrats can win with their current crop of candidates and the policies they claim to support. The economy is doing well, Trump is the incumbent, and let's face it, the Dems haven't accomplished much at all since they took back the House other than to further divide the Country.

    I think most moderates are sick of the "resistance" and all the assholes that come with it and I think people are seeing just how badly Democrat run cities are deteriorating. Trump will very likely not only win the White House again, he will likely get back the House as well, and even add a few seats to the Senate.
     
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2019
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  7. Too Rolling Stoned

    Too Rolling Stoned White Belt

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    Democrats are actively working against him, thats not an excuse but a fact.

    Republicans didn’t do this when Obama was president. What was your excuse for his entire 8 years doing nothing?
     
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  8. 7437

    7437 Yellow Card Yellow Card

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  9. Amerikuracana

    Amerikuracana Titanium Belt

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    Kind of sucks.. We will likely get more establishment R crap deal because of the Looney toon direction the left has steered. It's kind of a lose lose.
     
  10. Jack V Savage

    Jack V Savage Secretary of Keepin' It Real/Nicest Guy on Sherdog

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    This just illustrates the point. You think that including unauthorized immigrants in a single payer plan is culture-war bullshit or identity politics rather than just common sense for anyone who supports single-payer because you're not able to conceive of policy issues in terms of problem-->solution. You're willing to introduce inefficiencies and irrationality into the system and threaten everyone's health in order to ensure that the evil unauthorized immigrants don't benefit, and you think the only reason anyone would disagree is that they're on the opposite side of your divide.
     
  11. Oliver Clothesoff

    Oliver Clothesoff Brown Belt Platinum Member

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    I hear what you're saying and it's enough to make one want to just give up. Having said that, I'm a little more optimistic that they learned something from losing the House in 2018... and how badly they squandered their advantage in 2016. One can hope... but there's still a lot of swamp rats still in power. I am hoping their need to keep their jobs overrides their need to line pockets. ;)
     
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  12. HereticBD

    HereticBD Titanium Belt

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    LOL, that's a whole lot of empty words, that doesn't refute anything I said.

    Now do reparations, Jackie. Here's a preview:

    "This just illustrates my point, again. This is just you not understanding the economic difficulties of impoverished blah, blah, blah, and the blah, blah, blah..."


    The point is that Democrats are pushing identity politics, Jackie. Reaching out to specific minorities with pie in the sky promises targeting them, is identity politics, Jackie.
     
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  13. Senzo Tanaka

    Senzo Tanaka Silver Belt

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    It depends on how crazy the Democrats get. I hate using the term "far left" because I don't consider a lot of that rhetoric "left" at all.

    The average American doesn't want to hear about free healthcare for immigrants, open borders, free everything and banning more guns. Obviously those are nuanced conversations but the country itself isn't nuanced. They like slogans and easy to understand rhetoric. This doesn't mean that the Democrats need to move right or become moderate. They simply need to speak in simple terms on what they are going to for the the average American citizen - not immigrants and not they want to take away from your average citizen.

    To me, Tulsi had the best chance of beating Trump because of her temperament and reasonable and still progressive policies. The Dems would rather get behind an establishment candidate like Biden and if it's Biden or someone like him, Trump wins in a landslide. A lot of people on the right were afraid of voting for Trump. Now that they realize he's just your average conservative albeit more unhinged, they now feel comfortable voting for him. All the people that didn't vote for him last time will be out in droves this time to support him.

    A Bernie/Warren ticket has a chance but I think it would be razor thin and would depend on whose base is more motivated.

    My advice to Dems - STOP SAYING FREE. You already have a bad reputation of being the welfare party. In simple terms, tell the American people that you simply want things like college and healthcare to be part of our tax system like infrastructure. Bernie believes you can pay for college tuition by taxing Wall Street trades a measly 0.5%. I think other than the rich, virtually everyone can get behind that proposal yet he keeps making the mistake of saying "free college" which makes a normal person roll their eyes.
     
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  14. Too Rolling Stoned

    Too Rolling Stoned White Belt

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  15. Jack V Savage

    Jack V Savage Secretary of Keepin' It Real/Nicest Guy on Sherdog

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    Reparations isn't an actual proposal.

    And it's not "pie in the sky" to say that single-payer would also cover unauthorized immigrants. It would be more pie-in-the-sky big promises to resentful whites to say that it could be done practically without covering unauthorized immigrants.

    Anyway, your comments are in line with what I said. Republicans can't even conceive of how little liberals care about identity politics and liberals can't conceive of how central it is to Republican thought.
     
  16. HereticBD

    HereticBD Titanium Belt

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    As predicted, "Blah, blah, blah..."

    LOL @ Reparations not being a serious proposal. Does that mean you disagree with it? Because I got news for ya, Jackie. It's gonna be a big part of the Democratic platform, as they've already kissed that particular ass. Think it's going away? LOL.

    That said, maybe you're just naive, and haven't accepted what your precious Democrats have become? I doubt it, and think you're just desperately defending them on this issue, but we'll see how far your derangement goes.
     
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  17. Mr. Shickadance

    Mr. Shickadance Landlord Belt Platinum Member

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    I believe trump will lose because no matter who the democratic candidate is they will rally behind them, anyone but trump seems like it will win over any squabbling within the party. Even though trump won with the electoral college he didn’t win by all that much.

    On the other hand I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he won this country seems to be getting more idiotic with each passing election.
     
  18. superpunch

    superpunch Silver Belt

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    Let's take a look at that. .5% to buy a stock, .5% to sell a stock. 1% per stock trade. Retirement accounts rebalance their portfolios twice per year. 2% tax on your retirement account per year, so far. Now, who do you buy stocks from? Previously, human market makers -- now high frequency trading algorithms (hft) are market makers. A market maker isn't going to sell to you at a loss. So add another 1% per trade: now, you're looking at 4% of your retirement account. But wait -- this tax would put hft out of business and market makers will be human again. HFT are low margin, high volume businesses like McDonalds; humans are high margin, low volume like a nice restaurant. So, instead of paying a penny for the HFT's service, now you're paying dollars; add another 1%. Now you're looking at 5% of your retirement account gone per year. What's the average long term return? 6.5%. What's inflation? 2%? Now your retirement account is at -.5% returns per year! Now who's gonna retire? Not you!

    But wait, that's not all.

    Trading is electronic. It can be moved overseas just like our manufacturing industries were. Only, since it's electronic, it can be moved overseas in days instead of decades. Will companies simply accept that kind of loss of money? Well, let's find out:

    "The Swedish financial transaction tax was a 0.5% financial transaction tax (FTT) applied to equity securities, fixed income securities and financial derivatives between 1984 and 1991... During the first week of the tax, the volume of bond trading fell by 85%, even though the tax rate on five-year bonds was only 0.003%. The volume of futures trading fell by 98% and the options trading market disappeared.[1] 60% of the trading volume of the eleven most actively traded Swedish share classes moved to the UK after the announcement in 1986 that the tax rate would double. 30% of all Swedish equity trading moved offshore. By 1990, more than 50% of all Swedish trading had moved to London..."

    But wait, that's not all!

    If trading volumes fall, will the tax collect the amount projected calculated as tax * current trading volume? No, it will collect much less than projected!

    But wait, that's not all!

    What will happen to capital gains tax revenue when trading moves offshore? It will fall. In fact, it will fall even more than the transaction tax raises. So, it will cause lower tax revenue than we already collect.

    This is what scares me about the left. I'm an idiot but I know a little about some fields like finance. And when I look at their financial proposals, they're absolutely disastrous. To a common person ignorant about financial markets, this tax idea to eliminate student debt sounds AMAZING. So, it leaves me wondering just how bad their ideas on things that, like everyone else, I don't know anything about are: green energy, etc. If you look past the sound bite surface, designed to con the ignorant masses, of free shit for everyone that magically rich (the others for the left like foreigners are and black people were others for the right) people will pay for -- then just what are these policies, really?

    I don't like Trump, I don't agree with lots of his policies -- but his policies, like wanting to build a wall, are simply bad and wasteful; they're not disastrous. Right wingers simply propose policies that hurt our country; left wingers are proposing policies that would destroy our country. I might end up voting for Trump simply because the current left is scary.
     
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2019
  19. hillelslovak87

    hillelslovak87 Gold Belt

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    Right? That's why the public, when polled, wants far more stringent background checks, for example, and in overwhelming fashion.
     
  20. Amerikuracana

    Amerikuracana Titanium Belt

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    What page did you quote that from? I really don't think I said that. First time I've EVER felt that on sherdog. So.either that was a long time ago; I'm cracking; or the wrong name was somehow added to that quote.
     

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