Elections Do you see any possible scenario where Trump wins in 2020?

[IGotAHugePeckah]

I'm Canadian so I'm speaking as an outsider here, but it's really hard to envision Trump winning a second term. And yeah, I know, they said he couldn't win a first term. But I think there are some big factors Trump had on his side the first time that won't be present this time.

1) I think the Democrats, in the face of constant reporting and polling that said Trump had absolutely no chance, really took their foot off the gas and a lot of voters just stayed home, as they felt a Hillary victory was inevitable. In contrast, Trump supporters felt a real "underdog" urgency and showed up at the polls in larger percentages. I can only imagine that Democrat voters will be out in record numbers this time around.

2) A lot of people (including myself) just wanted to see what a Trump presidency would look like. What would happen if a complete political outsider was elected? Politicians are always breaking their promises... maybe he'll be different. He's rich as fuck and doesn't need to take dirty money from anyone... maybe he'll actually look out for the little guy. Well, the bloom is clearly off the rose at this point - he won't have that "novelty" factor going in.

3) Where once he was a fresh candidate full of exciting promises and intrigue, now he's proven to be complete disaster and racked up countless gaffs and faux pas over the last 3 years. No, he's not going to "drain the swamp" - if he was, he'd have done it by now.

I know Trump still has a strong base of ride-or-die supporters, and a large chunk of the country who may not be fond of him but are lifelong Republican voters... but it's just hard to imagine he wins another term after the complete shit show his administration has been.

But is it possible?

 

[Protectandserve]

If the dems continue to just push outrageously left in the debates they absolutely could lose.

 

[Bloody Pulp]

If any of the top Democrat candidates get the nomination he can win. Cause they are terrible.

 

[Social Distance Warrior]

If any of the top Democrat candidates get the nomination he can win. Cause they are terrible.

reported for racism

 

[Trotsky]

Yes, there are many possible scenarios and a very good chance. Trump's core support lies with a very reliable group, old white people, and he and his party are completely and utterly unrestricted by honesty, intellectual consistency, or policy coherency, so he'll once again get a much, much wider berth in what is acceptable for him.

His electoral vote share could be anywhere from 207 to 312 by my count

 

[Jack V Savage]

Anyone who has the nomination of a major party has a pretty decent chance to win, and an incumbent is normally the favorite. Probably not in Trump's case, but he still definitely has more than a 40% chance.

 

[Big Nasty Edison]

I think Trump wins easily in 2020.

 

[bobgeese]

I'm Canadian so I'm speaking as an outsider here, but it's really hard to envision Trump winning a second term. And yeah, I know, they said he couldn't win a first term. But I think there are some big factors Trump had on his side the first time that won't be present this time.

1) I think the Democrats, in the face of constant reporting and polling that said Trump had absolutely no chance, really took their foot off the gas and a lot of voters just stayed home, as they felt a Hillary victory was inevitable. In contrast, Trump supporters felt a real "underdog" urgency and showed up at the polls in larger percentages. I can only imagine that Democrat voters will be out in record numbers this time around.

2) A lot of people (including myself) just wanted to see what a Trump presidency would look like. What would happen if a complete political outsider was elected? Politicians are always breaking their promises... maybe he'll be different. He's rich as fuck and doesn't need to take dirty money from anyone... maybe he'll actually look out for the little guy. Well, the bloom is clearly off the rose at this point - he won't have that "novelty" factor going in.

3) Where once he was a fresh candidate full of exciting promises and intrigue, now he's proven to be complete disaster and racked up countless gaffs and faux pas over the last 3 years. No, he's not going to "drain the swamp" - if he was, he'd have done it by now.

I know Trump still has a strong base of ride-or-die supporters, and a large chunk of the country who may not be fond of him but are lifelong Republican voters... but it's just hard to imagine he wins another term after the complete shit show his administration has been.

But is it possible?

Of course it’s hard for you to believe, that’s how propaganda works...


What you don’t see is me in the hood the other day, having a black dude tell me he loves trump (I didn’t bring up the subject). If you think the black vote is gonna come out and rally around just any democrat, you’re in for a surprise.


It’s at least 51/49 in favor of trump.

 

[rocketskates]

I’m an independent and I say he wins again for sure. The pool of democratic candidates is an absolute clown show

 

[panamaican]

Yes, it's possible. The 2 important questions, imo, are:

1) Democrat turnout.
2) To what extent do white, college educated, women vote differently from last time.

 

[tinker_190]

Yes, I give Trump a roughly 72% chance of re-election. While I think the appeal of a non-establishment, non-politician type has worn thin as you noted, the incumbent generally has a pretty good advantage no matter what. Furthermore, that advantage increases given a strong economy.

As others have noted, the Democrats are also pushing trying to "out-Left" each other. Mitt Romney had this problem in reverse in 2012 when he was in the primary and everyone trashed his Massachusetts Health Plan Romneycare. Whoever the Democrats put forward is going to get there by putting out the most extreme red meat for the base, then have to backtrack on it in the general election.

 

[Jack V Savage]

BTW, you can get him at +110 on Bovada now. Interestingly, the GOP winning is -115.

 

[all caps]

I see no way trump doesnt win

 

[Higus]

As others have noted, the Democrats are also pushing trying to "out-Left" each other. Mitt Romney had this problem in reverse in 2012 when he was in the primary and everyone trashed his Massachusetts Health Plan Romneycare. Whoever the Democrats put forward is going to get there by putting out the most extreme red meat for the base, then have to backtrack on it in the general election.

This is just Primary strategy. Typically candidates will try to out do their opposition during the primaries and then come back to the center for the general election.
Trump sort of blew that playbook out of the water for the GOP, but it will probably still be effective for Democrats who actually care about governance.

 

[Lord Coke]

Yes, because the only time a incumbent lost in our lifetimes was because of a third party candidate getting a lot of his votes i.e. Bush Senior and Perot. Incumbents just tend to win

 

[IGotAHugePeckah]

If the dems continue to just push outrageously left in the debates they absolutely could lose.

True, but it seems like Biden is going to be the candidate, and he seems fairly center left, at least compared to some of the nuttier candidates.

Of course it’s hard for you to believe, that’s how propaganda works...

Is that your copy-and-paste, stock answer for everything Trump related? That's quite intellectually lazy.

My post is composed of my own thoughts and observations. From the outset, I pointed out that I was an outsider, so those thoughts and observations could very well be off the mark. But I'm not a CNN or MSNBC viewer - believe or not, you don't have to watch "fake news CNN" to think Trump's administration is a complete shit show.

 

[HereticBD]

Like I've already seen expressed in here by lefties, the left is simply not unified in defeating Trump at any cost. If Biden gets the nom, a lot of progressives are going to defiantly stay at home. If Bernie or Warren get the nom, they are offering a lot of shaky proposals, that will have the more centrist Lefties a little hesitant to vote for them.

Trump on the other hand has a very solid and dedicated base that ain't going anywhere. That have to beat that, plus the outliers. While not guaranteed, Trump has pretty damn good chance at getting reelected.

 

[Social Distance Warrior]

According to 5dimes

Trump to win election is +110.

anyone else to win is -130

Warren to win is +425

Sanders is +775

Kamala is +2200

Biden is +460

 

[Andy Capp]

I think Trump wins easily in 2020.

I hope you're wrong, but i honestly wouldn't be very surprised if he did. It would further erode my opinion of the voters (if possible) but it wouldn't be terribly surprising after what has been going on for the past 4 years.

 

[Richie Madano]

Yes. As long as he runs, he wins. I’ve watched the democratic primary debates and the closest thing to a winner on those stages was Sleepy Joe Biden. The democrats are toast.