Werdum beating Fedor a bigger upset than TJ over Barao. Hard to pick the greatest upsets because at the time they sometimes seem huge but later they are not. Like Penn beating Hughes was a massive upset at the time, but Penn was a favorite in later bouts.
I don't think last night was an upset. Just a lot UFC hype behind the champion who happens to live in the owners & matchmakers home country
I'm not sure why Dillashaw was so dogged on the fight. No, I wouldn't/didn't put money on him, but I had him as a +250 at worst. Saw people putting him as low at +850 which is insane. He has two losses, one on a questionable stoppage and another a split. The guy was a legit threat as compared to what they pegged him as. I think I got a +450 line on Werdum. Worst money I ever made. Broke my heart but what happened was what i was betting on. Reckless into the guard early + older Fedor = loss possibility.
I still think Serra vs GSP was a bigger upset. GSP is truly a better fighter than Serra. He was better before they fought, he was better after they fought, and Serra just pulled off a miracle upset. It was a fluke win. The only edge Serra arguably had against GSP was in BJJ, but even there, I think GSP always had a stronger ground game. Werdum and Fedor are much more even. Fedor has great timing with his looping punches so he poses a bigger one hit KO threat. But Werdum has been polishing his striking for a long time and has pretty good Muay Thai now. He's no slouch on the feet, but edge to Fedor standing. But on the ground? Huge edge to Werdum. And Fedor has always carelessly dove into BJJ guys' guards. It was one thing against Big Nog, but Werdum is a whole other beast and Fedor couldn't handle it. Everyone knew Werdum was a danger to Fedor on the ground before they fought. This fight was even more extreme. Dillashaw outclassed Barao. Nobody saw it coming, but TJ is simply a better fighter than Barao. Much better, really. So GSP/Serra, the better fighter lost. Fedor vs. Werdum, both fighters were pretty equal and people just overrated Fedor/underestimated Werdum. TJ vs Barao, the better man won, we were just wrong about who the better man actually was. Us being crappy at knowing who's a better fighter doesn't make a fight an upset. Barao vs. Dillashaw was only an upset insofar as the odds failed to reflect reality. On the other hand, Serra vs. GSP had Serra RIGHTFULLY an underdog, and he still won. To me, THAT is a true upset. Barao loses to Dillashaw 90+ times out of 100 IMO, so saying Dillashaw pulled an upset seems wrong to me. More accurate thing to say is Dillashaw unexpectedly proved to be the better fighter.
I think last night was a bigger upset, but a less important fight in MMA history. Fedor had been approaching the twilight of his historic career; he looked less sharp than usual while fighting in Strikeforce, and I think my prediction was Fedor's advantage is he could control where the fight took place... but if he took the fight to the ground he would lose. I felt Barao being in the heart of his prime and on a great streak, while defending champion, was the clear favorite against an unheralded TUF Finalist. But hey, what is is.
Barao didn't win twenty-two consecutive fights over six years by hype. He was the real deal. He just got beat by a guy who didn't give a shit what Barao had accomplished in the past.
