You sound like me, except I am in my 50s
I agree Tony Ferguson is the real deal. One of the few fighters who get stronger and stronger as time goes on.
However, I disagree with your analysis of Tony as being like Nate. I see the similarities, but there are differences.
Nate Diaz is a much tougher fighter than Tony Ferguson, chin-wise. He does not usually get dropped easily. Both tend to gain momentum as the fight wears on, both are excellent grapplers, but I think Tony Ferguson has 10 times the fight IQ of Nate Diaz, and is always looking to finish, wheres Diaz just bludgeons people repeatedly. Sometimes Diaz finishes, but he is not specifically looking for a decisive finish, at all times, like Tony is.
On the other hand, Tony Ferguson is China-chinned compared to Nate Diaz, IMO. I think he and Conor would make an awesome fight, guaranteed
not to go the distance.
It's a 50-50 fight, and if Tony gets dropped by Conor early I don't think he's going to recover. Conor is himself highly-intelligent, as well as a much more dangerous striker than Petis, Lee, and some of the other front-runners who have "dropped Tony" but failed to finish. Conor is extremely strong early, and hits like a mule, and he could starch Tony Ferguson, especially if he catches him early and somewhat cold.
I think it is every bit as realistic to believe Tony would get KTFO by Conor ... as it is to believe he could survive early, and finished Conor later. Although Nate Diaz put pressure on Conor later, it is not as amplified as the pressure that Tony Ferguson puts out. A tired Conor would get absolutely steamrolled by a late-round Tony Ferguson, he would not be allowed to get off the hook as Diaz allowed him to. Ferguson's pressure is much more relentless and serious than Diaz', IMO.
It would be an exciting fight from moment to finish, that's for sure.
