Democrats are heading toward some big losses in this fall's midterm Senate races

Lord Coke

Lord Coke

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Is this accurate? It seems like well reasoned article but it goes against everything my gut tells me will happen in 2018 but to be fair I don't really spend much time thinking about the 2018 election I just assumed it was just going to be a huge anti trump backlash.



https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/08/dem...losses-in-midterm-senate-elections-polls.html

Democrats are heading toward some big losses in midterm Senate races, polls say 6 Hours Ago | 00:49
If midterm elections were held today, five Senate Democrats would lose to Republicans, giving the GOP an even bigger edge in the chamber, according to new surveys from Axios/SurveyMonkey.

According to the results, Democratic Sens. Jon Tester of Montana, Joe Manchin of West Virginia, and Joe Donnelly of Indiana are trailing generic Republican candidates. Sen. Claire McCaskill of Missouri trails the state's Republican attorney general, Josh Hawley, in her re-election bid. Sen. Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota will face Rep. Kevin Cramer, although Axios polled Heitkamp's chances against a generic Republican candidate.



Democratic turnout surges in Texas 9:30 AM ET Wed, 7 March 2018 | 00:54
As it stands now, Democrats have a better chance of improving their position, and possibly taking the majority, in the House this fall than they do in the Senate. An average of polls from Real Clear Politics shows that Democrats have a nearly 9-point lead over Republicans on a generic ballot.


The Senate is a different story, though. Republicans hold only a 51-49 edge in the chamber, but 26 of the 30-plus seats up for grabs belong to Democrats or senators who caucus on the Democratic side.



Indictments could be 'short-term relief' for Trump administration 5:53 PM ET Fri, 16 Feb 2018 | 05:36
In six of the 10 states polled in the Axios survey, President Donald Trump's approval rating is more than 50 percent, compared with his 43 percent national approval rating. A Real Clear Politics average of various polls' approval ratings for Trump stands at just under 40 percent.

Tester, Manchin and McCaskill are in the most danger, according to Axios. Their approval ratings are either below or only slightly above 50 percent. Of the five Democrats losing in the polls, only McCaskill and Heitkamp so far face a set candidate. Republican candidates running against Tester, Manchin and Donnelly have yet to be determined.

The survey found that Tester would score 42 percent of his state's votes, with 55 percent saying they would vote Republican. Manchin is at 43 percent, with 52 percent voting Republican. Donnelly has 45 percent of votes, with 51 percent voting Republican.

McCaskill is down 44 percent to Hawley's 52 percent.

The polling was closer for Heitkamp. The survey said she would garner 47 percent, versus 49 percent for a generic Republican challenger. Yet the Axios report did not mention Cramer, who announced his candidacy Feb. 16. The polls were conducted from Feb. 12 until March 5.

Read the full Axios report here.
 
Yeah, 2018 was always set up to be a poor year for Democrats in the Senate. MOST of the seats in this cycle are in Redder states. including a bunch of democrats who managed to win in RED states during the Obama sweep in 2012 over Romney.

No Presidential voting during in Senate races tend to favor GOP in purple races (to close to call).
 
Good if true.

Unfortunately, whatever seats they lose will be filled by equally inept and corrupt republicans.

This country needs a purge of these politicians in the worst possible way.
 
alanb said:
Is this accurate? It seems like well reasoned article but it goes against everything my gut tells me will happen in 2018 but to be fair I don't really spend much time thinking about the 2018 election I just assumed it was just going to be a huge anti trump backlash.



https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/08/dem...losses-in-midterm-senate-elections-polls.html

Democrats are heading toward some big losses in midterm Senate races, polls say 6 Hours Ago | 00:49
If midterm elections were held today, five Senate Democrats would lose to Republicans, giving the GOP an even bigger edge in the chamber, according to new surveys from Axios/SurveyMonkey.

According to the results, Democratic Sens. Jon Tester of Montana, Joe Manchin of West Virginia, and Joe Donnelly of Indiana are trailing generic Republican candidates. Sen. Claire McCaskill of Missouri trails the state's Republican attorney general, Josh Hawley, in her re-election bid. Sen. Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota will face Rep. Kevin Cramer, although Axios polled Heitkamp's chances against a generic Republican candidate.



Democratic turnout surges in Texas 9:30 AM ET Wed, 7 March 2018 | 00:54
As it stands now, Democrats have a better chance of improving their position, and possibly taking the majority, in the House this fall than they do in the Senate. An average of polls from Real Clear Politics shows that Democrats have a nearly 9-point lead over Republicans on a generic ballot.


The Senate is a different story, though. Republicans hold only a 51-49 edge in the chamber, but 26 of the 30-plus seats up for grabs belong to Democrats or senators who caucus on the Democratic side.



Indictments could be 'short-term relief' for Trump administration 5:53 PM ET Fri, 16 Feb 2018 | 05:36
In six of the 10 states polled in the Axios survey, President Donald Trump's approval rating is more than 50 percent, compared with his 43 percent national approval rating. A Real Clear Politics average of various polls' approval ratings for Trump stands at just under 40 percent.

Tester, Manchin and McCaskill are in the most danger, according to Axios. Their approval ratings are either below or only slightly above 50 percent. Of the five Democrats losing in the polls, only McCaskill and Heitkamp so far face a set candidate. Republican candidates running against Tester, Manchin and Donnelly have yet to be determined.

The survey found that Tester would score 42 percent of his state's votes, with 55 percent saying they would vote Republican. Manchin is at 43 percent, with 52 percent voting Republican. Donnelly has 45 percent of votes, with 51 percent voting Republican.

McCaskill is down 44 percent to Hawley's 52 percent.

The polling was closer for Heitkamp. The survey said she would garner 47 percent, versus 49 percent for a generic Republican challenger. Yet the Axios report did not mention Cramer, who announced his candidacy Feb. 16. The polls were conducted from Feb. 12 until March 5.

Read the full Axios report here.
Click to expand...
The backlash is expressed in the generic ticket. The issue for Senate Dems is that almost all the seats up for election are Dem seats, so they won't make headway unless they win all but one or two of the races.
 
Yeah, this sounds about right. Democrats are way more popular right now, but the seats that are up for grabs in the Senate are 26/34 Democrats. I'd say it's a closed deal that Republicans keep the Senate and about 75% that they keep the House as well.

LogicalInsanity said:
Good if true.

Unfortunately, whatever seats they lose will be filled by equally inept and corrupt republicans.

This country needs a purge of these politicians in the worst possible way.
Click to expand...

Do you have any actual policy positions?

Setting aside your appraisal of "good," and even setting aside the fact that there actually is fresh primary renewal in the Democratic Party, how could you possibly arrive on the conclusion that the existing Democrats are anywhere near as inept or corrupt as Republicans? This post just reeks of ignorant political nihilism.
 
"Generic Republican" makes these polls useless. Each person has their own idea of that that means in their minds when polled and most picture a mainline Republican with a slight lean to the polled person's personal politics. So basically it's the polled person's ideal Republican candidate running against the named incumbent Democrat.

We're eight months out from the election - most if not all filing deadlines have closed meaning we know who the GOP candidates will be, or have 2-3 names in each primary that could have been tested.

Why didn't this pollster use real GOP candidates and not "Generic GOP" - probably because they wanted this narrative as a story. Now I'm not saying the map doesn't favor the GOP - Montana, WV, Missouri, Indiana, ND are all red states and for that matter OH, MI, PA, FL all went Trump in 2016 as well. Tester, Manchin and Heitkamp have strong brands in their State, McCaskill is facing Hawley - but the Grietens cloud will greatly benefit her, Donnelly is in real trouble, but there is a heated three way primary in Indiana that could be expensive and lead to hard feelings.

If "Generic Republican" isn't winning in Red States that would be a surprise.
 
Math is a bitch. It would be a miracle if they lost no seats, despite being favorites. House is a different story.
 
ShoelessRye said:
"Generic Republican" makes these polls useless. Each person has their own idea of that that means in their minds when polled and most picture a mainline Republican with a slight lean to the polled person's personal politics. So basically it's the polled person's ideal Republican candidate running against the named incumbent Democrat.

We're eight months out from the election - most if not all filing deadlines have closed meaning we know who the GOP candidates will be, or have 2-3 names in each primary that could have been tested.

Why didn't this pollster use real GOP candidates and not "Generic GOP" - probably because they wanted this narrative as a story. Now I'm not saying the map doesn't favor the GOP - Montana, WV, Missouri, Indiana, ND are all red states and for that matter OH, MI, PA, FL all went Trump in 2016 as well. Tester, Manchin and Heitkamp have strong brands in their State, McCaskill is facing Hawley - but the Grietens cloud will greatly benefit her, Donnelly is in real trouble, but there is a heated three way primary in Indiana that could be expensive and lead to hard feelings.

If "Generic Republican" isn't winning in Red States that would be a surprise.
Click to expand...
Heitkamp is a Democrat but votes republican 90% of the time.
 
The Republicans hold onto the House, and they pick up a minimum of 3-4 Senate seats.
 
I almost think the money has orchestrated it. I used to vote Democrat.
 
Farmer Br0wn said:
The Republicans hold onto the House, and they pick up a minimum of 3-4 Senate seats.
Click to expand...
I think this is likely, unfortunately. But only because it is a terrible election map for the Dems.

Mueller is the wild card though. If damning indictments come out just before the midterms, it could suppress GOP voter turnout enough to make a difference.

People's attention spans are so short though, the indictments would literally have to be like the week before the election.

We are entering the lowest phase of democracy: the block of undecided (aka. uninformed) voters is large enough to sway almost any election. Unfortunately, these people usually vote based on the last thing they happen to hear.

It's depressing to think that our country's direction is being determined based on coin tosses of the news cycle rather than any coherent policy.

Oh, well.
 
Hopefully its a bunch of republicans with a spine as opposed to spineless Trumpbots.
 
Most of those races are between the named Democrat and a nameless, generic Republican candidate. Those numbers will surely change (and be better for the Democrat incumbents) once they're matched with an actual GOP candidate.
 
Democrats only need the House to hold Trump accountable.

Trump has until November to fuck things up even more.
 
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