Definition of overrated: #5 Boetsch is an underdog to #25 Philippou

[Zatara]

Time to put money on Boetsch?

 

[mrmyz]

in for boetch victory and legions of but hurt people rofl

 

[QTdd**]

If anyone is overrated it's Costa.

Remind me what he's done to warrant the hype? Beating up on Riki Fikuda and Court McGee? Yeah, I'll take the guy who finished Okami. This will be a repeat of Boetsch/Grove.

I wish people like you put their money where their mouth was.
Terrible analysis. Please bet, so I can have your money.

 

[Petoria]

Wouldn't that make the rankings retarded?

If Anderson Silva and I go into a new organisation and I beat up my mom, whereas Anderson beats up his grandman, should I be ranked higher than Anderson?

Your response will be ''but Andeson would murder you''. Exactly. His stock is higher and he's expected to win, because he's the favourite.

Plus, Boetsch had two fluke wins.

If Anderson had never fought before and you beat a higher ranked fighter than him, then yes, you would be ranked higher.

 

[QTdd**]

Betting odds mean everything, it is the opinions of people who matter(people who are willing to place their money where their mouth is).

This is why rankings don't mean jack also.

Exactly.

 

[QTdd**]

If Anderson had never fought before and you beat a higher ranked fighter than him, then yes, you would be ranked higher.

No, rankings should be based on who the better fighter is.
Rory McDonald hasn't beaten a top 10 WW yet, but everyone ranks him top 10, if not top 5.

Why? Because he's looked great against everyone and we expect him to beat everyone but the top dogs.

Odds > Rankings
Anyway can guess. People who believe in their guesses enough to put money on it know more than people who just have a big mouth.

 

[QTdd**]

I Picked Boestch to beat Okami, Lombard and I think hell steamroll Costa

So you got lucky twice?
The best fighter doesn't always win.

I don't like bashing Boetsch because I admire his will to win, but he's so overrated, it's not even funny.

 

[QTdd**]

The Lombard that showed up against Palhares would probably take Timbo, but the one that showed up for Timbo did almost nothing.

FightMetric backs it up as well.

Fightmetric is irrelevant. Don't listen to Goldberg.
Lombard landed a body kick that visibly hurt Boetsch. That trumps a couple of legs kicks that had no effect.

 

[Muskie]

The betting odds are out, and Boetsch is the underdog by a slight margin:
Costa Philippou -135
Tim Boetsch -105

If this does not show how overrated Boetsch is, I don't know what does. Boetsch currently sit at #5 MW, whereas Costa is #25. This is why I trust betting odds way more than rankings.

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2012/11/27/3697976/bloody-elbow-november-2012-meta-rankings-middleweight

EDIT:

I mean overrated relative to his ranking in most sites (#5)

Boetsch is underrated, he pretty much was expected to lose most every single one of his UFC fights yet has some big wins. He was the dog against Okami and probably Lombard too, yet he got the W against the bigger names. Now he fights an up and comer and some odds maker has him as the underdog again, this isn't shocking.

You do realize odds makers set the lines to encourage people to bet. The line moves as money comes in on one side or the other with the goal being for the house to make money regardless of who wins the fight.

Generally the house is a lot smarter than the average poster on the Internet so if the house likes Philippou just a bit, they either think Philippou will likely win or they need money to come in on one side in order to cover their potential losses.

If you're a shit hot gambler isn't it your job (skill) is to find underdogs who will cover? If so, then it is disadvantageous to make it widely known that you think you have a dog who will cover and pay off big. Finally I wouldn't be so quick to bet against Boetsch especially if you rewatch the Okami fight or even his very first fight in the UFC when he was brought into lose against Irvin.

 

[PAPERCLIP30]

He's overrated because he's the underdog?

Because he's number 5....against number 25.....get it?

 

[Cutty]

The betting odds are out, and Boetsch is the underdog by a slight margin:
Costa Philippou -135
Tim Boetsch -105

If this does not show how overrated Boetsch is, I don't know what does. Boetsch currently sit at #5 MW, whereas Costa is #25. This is why I trust betting odds way more than rankings.

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2012/11/27/3697976/bloody-elbow-november-2012-meta-rankings-middleweight

EDIT:

I mean overrated relative to his ranking in most sites (#5)

Boetsch is no joke.He has the most top ten wins in the MW division bar Silva ( tied with Weidman).Lombard and Okami are much better than Philippou, so I don't know what people are thinking. Even if it doesn't turn out to be the most exciting fight, he has shown he can grind out a victory if necesarry (Lombard).

I say he 's underrated and he will probably get KOTN.

Edit: Forgot to mention franklin, but I don't see him climbing the ladder as long as silva is the champ..

 

[cwatz]

Timmy got his "official" rankings because of the guys he beat, not because hes actually that good.

Look at Rorys rankings recently, or Jones before he got the Shogun fight as examples of where we know people are far better than they are actually rated.

The same goes for people who are higher than they should be.

 

[SODACKER]

He was an underdog in his last two fights and he won them so that seems like he's the definition of underrated

 

[MMAniak416]

I think Boetsch's current streak is an absolute farce and anyone thinking he'll get a title shot is kidding themselves.


Don't get me wrong, I give him credit for that amazing comeback against Okami and surviving the killer Lombard with an injury. But, he's just not contention material.

 

[SODACKER]

Betting odds mean everything, it is the opinions of people who matter(people who are willing to place their money where their mouth is).

This is why rankings don't mean jack also.

Betting odds have as much to do with public opinion and where they think the action will be as much as who they actually think will win.

That's why they don't meant jack.

 

[Gunny]

Betting odds have as much to do with public opinion and where they think the action will be as much as who they actually think will win.

That's why they don't meant jack.

I believe you're confused

 

[SODACKER]

I believe you're confused

Nope

 

[Gunny]

Nope

You really are confused. The point you made - while true in itself on a per-better basis - fails to contextualize the aggregate behavior of the entire field of betters.

If you had said "odds don't mean jack early on and then become more reliable as the fight approaches" then you might have a sliver of point.

 

[rlm81]

Betting odds have as much to do with public opinion and where they think the action will be as much as who they actually think will win.

That's why they don't meant jack.

They are not perfect but there is mounting evidence that they are better than any other alternative ("specialists", pundits, polls, etc) in terms of predicting outcomes

 

[SODACKER]

You really are confused. The point you made - while true in itself on a per-better basis - fails to contextualize the aggregate behavior of the entire field of betters.

No its not. They try and predict the aggregate behavior of betters and determine where the action will be so the lines aren't drastically moving between the opening line and event.

Much more goes into it than who is better than the other. If a line was only based on who was going to win then why would the line ever move.