Definition of overrated: #5 Boetsch is an underdog to #25 Philippou

[Calvin42]

Yeah, I stopped paying attention to rankings a few years ago, with how quickly they can change, it's pretty meaningless.

Oh yeah, I like Costa via TKO.

 

[kflo]

Tim deserves his #5 ranking. You should be ranked based on your results in your fights, not how some bookie or some nobody on a forum thinks you will fare in a matchup.

depends on how you see rankings and what they represent.

 

[thruthbtold**]

That is fine. Even with the house doing everything it can to maximize it's earnings betting markets have been shown to outperform "specialists" (pundits, rankings, etc.) or surveys in predicting the outcome that is being bet.

It is good to learn about the insider info though. Thanks!

Can you post us a link to an article on the subject? (I'm not trying to discredit you, I'm just curious.)

 

[D10]

I Picked Boestch to beat Okami, Lombard and I think hell steamroll Costa

 

[lapollarecords]

Costa is #25? who are the other 24 guys? he is in a 4 fight win streak in the UFC!

 

[rlm81]

Can you post us a link to an article on the subject? (I'm not trying to discredit you, I'm just curious.)

This NYT article has references and links (more focused on political events)

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/09/prediction-markets-and-elections/

and this is a research paper summarizing the evidence on the issue

http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/re...ets wolfers/13 prediction markets wolfers.pdf

This is the abstract of that research paper

Prediction markets|markets used to forecast future events|have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their utilization by economic forecasters. We show that prediction markets have a number of attractive features: they quickly incorporate new information, are largely effcient, and impervious to manipulation. Moreover, markets generally exhibit lower statistical errors than professional forecasters and polls.

 

[Gunny]

Can you post us a link to an article on the subject? (I'm not trying to discredit you, I'm just curious.)

http://www.pollingreport.com/lvw_bet.htm

The assumption, or at least the hypothesis, must be that the accuracy of the betting markets is created out of the information and intuition of many people rather than the conclusions of a few. Those myriad people feed in the best information and intuition they can because their own financial rewards depend directly upon them. And it really is a case of “follow the money” because those who know the most are likely to bet the most.

 

[Mau]

apples and oranges

 

[SuperNerd]

The betting line includes styles match up which rankings do not.

Tim is also pretty under rated.

 

[PRIDEoftheUFC**]

There are a bunch of guys who I think can beat Boetsch, but his spot as #5 is justified due to his wins. He beat Okami and although I thought the Lombard fight was a bad decision, he has the win. I have him ranked as #4 on my personal rankings, but there are guys like Vitor, Rockhold and Okami who I have ranked lower than him who I think would beat him.

It's similar to how Munoz was ranked #5 or something at one point. There were a lot of guys ranked lower than him who I thought could beat him, but he had the win streak going for him.

 

[movingparts]

Won't last long anyways.

 

[Toxxus]

The Lombard that showed up against Palhares would probably take Timbo, but the one that showed up for Timbo did almost nothing.

FightMetric backs it up as well.

 

[MCS]

Overrated relative to his rankings.

And their placing in the actual division as contenders, how close they are to a title shot.

I was hoping Boetsch would be the favorite...Philippou will win.

Boetsch has been overperforming, big time. Maybe the most aside from Brock in the last 5 years in any division if you look what he brings to the table.

 

[Blackbelch**]

Boetsch is good but he needs a solid convincing win to set him higher in the ranks. And I know he TKOed Okami but I still think Okami's loss was a fluke that probably shouldn't have happened.

 

[wwedanawhite]

how could there possibly be 24 guys higher ranked then costa....., crazy rankings

 

[Total Immortal]

I thought Boetsch was fighting Weidman, what did I miss?

 

[thruthbtold**]

This NYT article has references and links (more focused on political events)

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/09/prediction-markets-and-elections/

and this is a research paper summarizing the evidence on the issue

http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/re...ets wolfers/13 prediction markets wolfers.pdf

This is the abstract of that research paper

Thank you and Gunny.

 

[QTdd**]

Fucking finally someone who understands rankings and stock.
Props to TS.

Yes, Boetsch is very overrated.

 

[QTdd**]

That doesn't make any sense.

Rankings are determined by accomplishments, not by 'who would beat who'. Boetsch has better wins than Philippou which is why he's ranked higher, even if Philippou might be the better fighter.

Wouldn't that make the rankings retarded?

If Anderson Silva and I go into a new organisation and I beat up my mom, whereas Anderson beats up his grandman, should I be ranked higher than Anderson?

Your response will be ''but Andeson would murder you''. Exactly. His stock is higher and he's expected to win, because he's the favourite.

Plus, Boetsch had two fluke wins.

 

[Gunny]

The betting line includes styles match up which rankings do not.

Tim is also pretty under rated.

This is a very good point