Nah, he likely wins, I'm won't doubt DDP anymore. He's like the underdog who just makes it and wins. He has a style that is like refusing to tap even if his arm is broken. And his wrestling is underrated. I dunno. But he was formerly a grappler and was selected as one of the main representatives of the South African Grecco roman team in the Olympics, tho he didn't go to I think. But he went to a Gracie training gym once, full of black belts, and he submitted 5 jiu jitsu experts in a row in a tournament, grappling one besides the other...
His defense in wrestling is also very good. Whittaker took him down, but he got up in a way that hurt Whittaker by taking him in a stance that is a very specific wrestling base experience. I think Khamzat will take him down and get a solid first round, possibly 10-8, like vs Usman.
The second round likely plays out like vs Usman , maybe Khamzat still gets a takedown, but his energy starts to fade. And DDP is bigger than anyone Khamzat faced. His cardio is steady too, while Chimaev is more in a strong burst... And as soon as Khamzat starts gassing, I think DDP will start picking him apart and get a late round TKO... Or a decision ... But from round 3, and with the energy he'd spend trying to finish DDP, I assume Dricus would start hunting him in the final rounds and (sadly to me, as I'd like Chimaev to win), get a TKO with his bursts and flurries, which would be too much for a tired Khamzat. He needs Tom survive the first round. And I think that's very likely to happen. He's motivate too, and has that motivation to kill or be killed, like Khamzat... But his size and his pressure and cardio machine + power in his strikes would be too much for Chimaev. Who know tho, odds are on Chimaev's side...