Economy DC to start tracking breakthrough cases

[HockeyBjj]

Good info to have. Wish all states did this. Very promising info as well as DC has a vaccination rate of 53.8%, in the past month they've had 680 total new covid cases, and only 25-31 (hard to tell where the date cutoff exactly is) of them from vaccinated individuals. Despite being about a 50/50 share of the population. That's a 5% chance of catching covid compared to unvaxxed. Right in line with the 90-95% effective numbers tossed out.

There have also been 4 fully vaccinated covid fatalities in march and april (keep in mind, older nursing home type patients are over re-presented in the vaccinated group) and none so far since. Trying to keep sample sizes the same, there have been 127 total covid deaths in DC since beginning of March when vaccines started coming out.

again, that's inside that 90-95% effective range comparing vaxxed deaths to covid deaths.
https://coronavirus.dc.gov/data

 

[AWilder]

i can feel my microchip battling the covid.

 

[nostradumbass]

So your chances of getting shot in DC are now higher than your chances of dying from covid?

 

[Hadron90]

Do both groups have the same testing coverage? If not, the results are going to be thrown off. My understanding is that the guidance for both when to test, and how to test is different for the vaxxed vs. non-vaxxed. Any analysis has to caveated with that.

 

[HockeyBjj]

So your chances of getting shot in DC are now higher than your chances of dying from covid?

For a vaccinated person? Yeah.

Get a shot. Don't get shot. Live to a hundred. New motto.

 

[HockeyBjj]

Do both groups have the same testing coverage? If not, the results are going to be thrown off. My understanding is that the guidance for both when to test, and how to test is different for the vaxxed vs. non-vaxxed. Any analysis has to caveated with that.

Not sure. Definitely a good point though.

I do think there is some built-in correction to that though.

The people who have gotten vaccinated are the more cautious around covid type. And pre-vaxxed were more likely to get tested if they started to feel a little off or were around someone who they suspected or was positive. The non-vaxxed people were less caring about covid to begin with, and not the type to go in and get tested unless more serious like they knew they were around someone and now have a bad cough.

So I think both groups are only likely to test in situations of noticeable symptoms now. Unless forced to get tested due to exposure at work to return to work sort of situations. So I don't think it's off my as much as the guidance would indicate, as the non vaxxed aren't the type to follow the guidance to begin with most likely.

 

[Hadron90]

Not sure. Definitely a good point though.

I do think there is some built-in correction to that though.

The people who have gotten vaccinated are the more cautious around covid type. And pre-vaxxed were more likely to get tested if they started to feel a little off or were around someone who they suspected or was positive. The non-vaxxed people were less caring about covid to begin with, and not the type to go in and get tested unless more serious like they knew they were around someone and now have a bad cough.

I don't know how true that generalization is at all. I am not vaxxed and I've been tested 4 times. I've got a test every time I have been notified of Covid contact.

So I think both groups are only likely to test in situations of noticeable symptoms now. Unless forced to get tested due to exposure at work to return to work sort of situations. So I don't think it's off my as much as the guidance would indicate, as the non vaxxed aren't the type to follow the guidance to begin with most likely.

Its not just tests you seek out, but also when tests are ordered. For example, at many (maybe all) hospitals, a Covid test is required for every new patient who not vaccinated. But vaccinated patients are only tested if they are suspected of having Covid. This means that the hospital will catch many more asymptomatic cases from unvaccinated people than they will from vaccinated people. On top of this, the CDC guidance on how many PCR cycles to use is different for the vaxxed vs. unvaccinated, meaning the test for the unvaccinated is more sensitive (and also more likely to produce false positives)

 

[HockeyBjj]

On top of this, the CDC guidance on how many PCR cycles to use is different for the vaxxed vs. unvaccinated, meaning the test for the unvaccinated is more sensitive (and also more likely to produce false positives)

Source for that? I haven’t seen changes of threshold at all.

Do you know what the ratio of mandated (for lack of better term) type tests are vs people just going in on their own?

 

[Cherry Brigand]

I'd Daniel Cormier is on the case, we'll know his data results are the second best around.

 

[Queen B]

 

[PhitePhan]

@Queen B is NOT an ally.

 

[PhitePhan]

COVID-19 survivors may possess wide-ranging resistance to the disease
Woodruff Health Sciences Center | July 22, 2021

“Recovered COVID-19 patients retain broad and effective longer-term immunity to the disease, suggests a recent Emory University study, which is the most comprehensive of its kind so far. The findings have implications for expanding understanding about human immune memory as well as future vaccine development for coronaviruses.

The longitudinal study, published recently on Cell Reports Medicine, looked at 254 patients with mostly mild to moderate symptoms of SARS-CoV-2 infection over a period for more than eight months (250 days) and found that their immune response to the virus remained durable and strong.“
https://news.emory.edu/stories/2021/07/covid_survivors_resistance/index.html?s=03

 

[Hadron90]

Source for that? I haven’t seen changes of threshold at all.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...Vaw26yp9INoZanJxrwvXmLzSM&cshid=1627315528353

Its a PDF. Towarda the bottom. They guidance says the CT threshold for submitting the case to the FDA as a breakthrough case is 28 cycles. If you look up the normal guidance for Covid testing, its 40 cycles. They simply aren't running suspected breakthrough cases for as many cycles, so it isn't a direct comparison

And this is one of the areas the "fact checkers" play fast and loose. They'll say the CDC uses the same guidance for PCR testing for both vaxxed and unvaxxed... technically that's true. But they use different guidance for reporting. They only report a breakthrough case if it is <28 cycles. So that's why I asked how DC is counting cases.

Do you know what the ratio of mandated (for lack of better term) type tests are vs people just going in on their own?

Nope. But another example is NYC will now start requiring city employees to get weekly tests if not vaxxed. No such requirement for the vaxxed.

 

[Papi Chulo]

I saw today that the Pfizer vaccine is only 39% effective against the Delta variant.

Yet our Hellth Departments and politicians will still try to force us to vaccinate

Natural immunity does not exist to these people.

 

[HockeyBjj]

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...Vaw26yp9INoZanJxrwvXmLzSM&cshid=1627315528353

Its a PDF. Towarda the bottom. They guidance says the CT threshold for submitting the case to the FDA as a breakthrough case is 28 cycles. If you look up the normal guidance for Covid testing, its 40 cycles. They simply aren't running suspected breakthrough cases for as many cycles, so it isn't a direct comparison

And this is one of the areas the "fact checkers" play fast and loose. They'll say the CDC uses the same guidance for PCR testing for both vaxxed and unvaxxed... technically that's true. But they use different guidance for reporting. They only report a breakthrough case if it is <28 cycles. So that's why I asked how DC is counting cases.


Nope. But another example is NYC will now start requiring city employees to get weekly tests if not vaxxed. No such requirement for the vaxxed.

That links was dead and gave me a re-direct for here

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/201...ety-guidelines.html#specimen-packing-shipping

Search terms of Vaccine, vaccinated, threshold pull up no hits. I'm not sure what other terms would be used to imply different cycles as you're alleging

 

[D 1 Wrestler]

I saw today that the Pfizer vaccine is only 39% effective against the Delta variant.

Yet our Hellth Departments and politicians will still try to force us to vaccinate

Natural immunity does not exist to these people.

"Only"

You sound like the tards who don't wear a helmet when riding their motorcycle. My body!

 

[Da Speeit]

I saw today that the Pfizer vaccine is only 39% effective against the Delta variant.

Yet our Hellth Departments and politicians will still try to force us to vaccinate

Natural immunity does not exist to these people.

 

[Ophydian]

I don't know how true that generalization is at all. I am not vaxxed and I've been tested 4 times. I've got a test every time I have been notified of Covid contact.


Its not just tests you seek out, but also when tests are ordered. For example, at many (maybe all) hospitals, a Covid test is required for every new patient who not vaccinated. But vaccinated patients are only tested if they are suspected of having Covid. This means that the hospital will catch many more asymptomatic cases from unvaccinated people than they will from vaccinated people. On top of this, the CDC guidance on how many PCR cycles to use is different for the vaxxed vs. unvaccinated, meaning the test for the unvaccinated is more sensitive (and also more likely to produce false positives)

I was at a hospital before I was vaccinated twice and was not administered a COVID test. All they have you do is fill out a questionnaire.

 

[HockeyBjj]

Lol. @Papi Chulo read something in a meme. Parrots it. Gets smacked down by a cited New England journal of Medice excerpt

lies, damned lies, and statics. Papi’s meme probably purposely took some data off half a dose and claimed that was Pfizer’s effectiveness as a whole


Effectiveness after one dose of vaccine (BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) was notably lower among persons with the delta variant (30.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 25.2 to 35.7) than among those with the alpha variant (48.7%; 95% CI, 45.5 to 51.7); the results were similar for both vaccines. With the BNT162b2 vaccine, the effectiveness of two doses was 93.7% (95% CI, 91.6 to 95.3) among persons with the alpha variant and 88.0% (95% CI, 85.3 to 90.1) among those with the delta variant.

 

[Ophydian]

But it’s only 88% effective. Papi Chudo needs it to be 105% before he’ll consider it.

His idea of being vaccinated is being offered two guns. One with 100s of times greater chance of selecting a bullet and thinking that’s the best choice because someone else is pulling the trigger so it’s at least not his fault he died.