Cruz is the underdog against Casey

Who wins?

  • Total voters
    123
xhaydenx said:
Oh, I definitely see why lol.

Cruz is coming off two losses and his last win was back in 2016. He's worn and had a lot of injuries vs the younger guy who has 3 wins in 2020 alone.

It's a little different here because of the injuries and lack of activity for Cruz, but bookies often get fooled by pure fight records when they should be looking at level of competition faced instead.

Tecia Torres vs Brianna Van Buren is the best example I've seen of this. Tecia was paying 3.20. I tried to put 3k on Tecia but they limited it to 1k as their traders would have been wondering why the fuck someone was going hard on a girl who had lost her last 4 and was up against someone who had won their last 6.

In that example, they didn't seem to realize that Tecia losing 4 straight decisions to the likes of Marina, Joanna, Zhang, and Andrade is actually a far better showing than beating the likes of Lima and Curran in a one-night tourney in Invicta, and then Souza in the UFC. (Lima and Curran are both UFC wash outs in case you don't know. Curran went 1-6 in the UFC).

Cruz losing to Cody and Henry is better than Casey beating Alateng, Smolka and Wood recently.

Like I said though, there's more to this fight than that on Cruz's side, but those sort of records go a long way in swaying bookies in my experience.

Personally, I have this at either near evens or Cruz as a slight fav.
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Good breakdown
 
Very close, evenly matched fight.
Casey has looked brilliant overall but not world level at 135.
His fight versus Wood showed his limitations in the standup.

Cruz definitely has enough left to control distance, stuff takedowns, win scrambles and edge a close decision victory.
 
Unless Cruz is done, he should win handily.
 
I think Dom will put on a clinic vs this Casey fella

Definitely betting
 
He might win but he looked SO old & slow vs Cejudo. Yes it's Cejudo, but he should have lasted a round or 2 at least.

I could absolutely see Kenney chopping his legs & time his entries to land big intercepting punches. Cruz best path to victory is takedowns & control imo. The striking game has long since passed him by.
 
I don't think Cruz's striking as effective anymmore at the higher levels. He had nothing else to use to adjust to Cory and got beat up with technical striking.

Casey is legit and improving like crazy each fight. I think Casey's striking is too clean for Cruz and Cruz's wretling isn't good enough to wrestle f him imo. I think its a few things coupled together like the game kinda passing Cruz by and less about whether cruz himself is too far gone physically like so many are suggesting but probably a factor and for sure considered into the odds, I just mean I think a lot of people will point to physical decline if he loses and I think it'll be more about his game being less effective these days.

I've been very impressed with Casey but with Cruz's inactivity it's hard to say if he's improved and its just a hard fight to be confident in either way. I'm leaning Casey and the odds are about right imo but I figured it'd be about flipped with Cruz being the former champ and people not knowing Casey well in general.
 
Bet the over 1.5 rounds ....or fight to go the distance

Both are pillowfisted and have 3 finishes combined between them
 
AtaTheCrow said:
didn't decided it yet, but with a friend we are thinking to bet each 1.000€ for Cruz.
Im going to watch Casey's 3 last fights today.
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Man, there are way better fights for gambling on this card than this.
 
AtaTheCrow said:
would appreciate, i'm all ears. What do you think?
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I researched the shit out of Lemos/Souza. I like Lemos a lot in that.

Joe B is probably better value than Cruz as well. Really, with the way Cruz's body is, all sorts of unforeseen shit could happen there lol. I like Joe B because I think he really shouldn't be the underdog.

Maybe go small on Joe B for the value and a little heavier on Lemos.

If you really want to bet on Cruz/Casey though, To Go the Distance or To Start Round 3 is pretty good.
 
xhaydenx said:
I researched the shit out of Lemos/Souza. I like Lemos a lot in that.

Joe B is probably better value than Cruz as well. Really, with the way Cruz's body is, all sorts of unforeseen shit could happen there lol. I like Joe B because I think he really shouldn't be the underdog.

Maybe go small on Joe B for the value and a little heavier on Lemos.

If you really want to bet on Cruz/Casey though, To Go the Distance or To Start Round 3 is pretty good.
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thanks mate, so i have to watch some fights today.
Good luck & success!
 
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