More calculations from that weird numberphile from The Netherlands.
So, earlier today I reported that the municipal health organisations in the north of The Netherlands estimate that 6% of the north has already been infected with SARS-CoV-2, and that the percentage in the south (very much more badly hit so far) is much higher, and, therefor, it will take quite a bit longer before the north will see herd immunity.
Now, we know how many people live in the three northern most provinces (Groningen, Friesland and Drenthe), and we know how many people have been hospitalised due to COVID-19 in these provinces. So I went with those numbers, and did some calculations, because what else? In the table below, you will see my calculations for the three worst hit provinces, based on that 6% figure, and the number of hospitalisations in those provinces. I make one assumption, and that is that the % of people needing hospitalisation for COVID-19 is the same for the whole country.
As you can see, this would mean that the three worst hit provinces, have already had almost a quarter of their residents infected with this virus. We also see, based on the earlier mentioned assumption, that the actual percentage of COVID-19-patients needing hospitalisation is 0,29%, while the official models assume 4%. Now, if we take that 0,29%, and we know that to date there have been 7735 people needing hospitalisation in The Netherlands, we have to conclude that to date 2,667,241 Dutch people have already been infected with SARS-CoV-2; that would mean 15,33% of total residents of The Netherlands. That would mean a mortality rate* of 0,08%.
* Mortality rate based on
official number of deaths; I hope to have some more realistic figures this Friday, when the total number of deceased people for week 13 will be published.