Cotto VS Canelo: A Technical Summary

[Bogotazo]

What's going on guys. As part of my getting hyped for this huge fight, I made this technical breakdown discussing the stylistic strengths and weaknesses of Cotto and Canelo. Enjoy and discuss!

[YT]cl2QDity9TQ[/YT]

Who are you picking? And did this affect your thinking about the fight at all?

 

[Bogotazo]

Canelo has confidence in his own ability to take a punch, that is pretty clear. Whenever he has been backed up, he stays calm and rides the aggression out, then usually takes the guys head off in return.

Cotto can't press this fight because he simply cannot take the punishment that would come from the counter combinations. Cotto is great, but he's not a fighter that can take shots like that.

He will most likely try and outbox Canelo but I struggle to see how he will be able to stop the body shots and left uppercut in particular. He's not a great defensive fighter or super quick on his feet.

I have clips of the Floyd fight where he didn't exactly ride it out. He defers to his opponent's rhythm a lot.

I don't think Cotto can fight the whole fight purely boxing. He doesn't have height and reach on his side so he will have to engage. His footwork will be the key to getting in and out when he wants. But he can't run from Canelo. That won't work.

I was actually watching the fight with Gomez today, and I think the fight could look a lot like that.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=djnT2XfXAxQ

 

[Bogotazo]

I'm curious how each man is going to react to the other's power. Cotto could very well get hurt by Canelo's powerful counters but I think his confidence right now will also help him weather rocky moments.

 

[ChickenNugget]

Yeah, I'm very much looking forward to that fight as well. I wish there would be more fights of that caliber in boxing...

 

[Mr2urbo]

Ita true Cotto does not have height or reach advantage to thoroughly outbox Canelo but does posses a sharp jab and Canelo always looks lost whenever hes jabbed

I would device a game plan where Canelo can capitalize on Cottos jab (Cotto has an unusual short reach for his height) everytime he throws it, similar to what Marg did in the first fight only problem Canelo doesnt have the same chin and conditioning as Marg.

And as for Canelo being backed against ropes against Kirkland? I can recall Cotto doing very good against guys on the roopes but its in the center where he prevails and Canelo IMO hasnt mastered ring generalship yet so thats going to be interesting to see, (at that point Kirkland was zapped out of power and energy from Canelos attack, Canelo took his time and recovered I think)

As the majority consencus of the board here says, Cotto is the more techincal and experienced fighter whereas Canelo is the raw and physical fighter, Canelo may very well win if he just focus and rely on his strengths rather than taking a minute off every round

 

[Flex Rickard]

I'm curious how each man is going to react to the other's power. Cotto could very well get hurt by Canelo's powerful counters but I think his confidence right now will also help him weather rocky moments.

I think cotto's gonna be real confident right up until he takes his first good shot from canelo, then the memory of every beating he's ever taken will come flooding back on him all at once. After that it's only a matter of time, in my opinion.

Who would you all say is the biggest puncher cotto's faced up to now? Anybody that's even comparable to canelo?

 

[Heikki Mustola]

I got Cotto by UD and I think he will surprise some people. Canelo is a very talented and powerful young man though. But I believe Cotto will outbox him, but we'll see. Wouldn't be surprised to see Canelo win at all though.

But I see Canelo hurting him, possibly putting Cotto down once or twice

I just hope that it will be a great fight and that neither will get injured or hurt badly

 

[Canelo]

I have clips of the Floyd fight where he didn't exactly ride it out. He defers to his opponent's rhythm a lot.

I don't think Cotto can fight the whole fight purely boxing. He doesn't have height and reach on his side so he will have to engage. His footwork will be the key to getting in and out when he wants. But he can't run from Canelo. That won't work.

I was actually watching the fight with Gomez today, and I think the fight could look a lot like that.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=djnT2XfXAxQ

I'm pretty sure he did ride it out. When he was in the corner getting tagged he wasn't in any form of trouble and looked to be playing possum more than anything. Mayweather recognised this and layed off, then Canelo landed a solid right hand off the ropes. I think it's another good example of him keeping composed.

In terms of following his opponents rythm, he certainly didn't do that against Lara, he chased him around all night and stuck to the same gameplan. He targeted the body from start to finish and didn't get suckered into Lara's boxing game.

The Gomez fight may tell us a few things but ultimately I think Canelo has improved too much since then to use it as a serious base.

 

[Bogotazo]

I think cotto's gonna be real confident right up until he takes his first good shot from canelo, then the memory of every beating he's ever taken will come flooding back on him all at once. After that it's only a matter of time, in my opinion.

Who would you all say is the biggest puncher cotto's faced up to now? Anybody that's even comparable to canelo?

I think it depends on how prepared he feels, and he seems to have more Roach than anyone before.

I think Mosley has at least similar power to Canelo. I mean Mosley used to knock guys the fuck out, whereas Canelo often wears them down (Kirkland being a recent exception due to styles). There is a weight difference but not a huge one.

Ricardo Torres at 140 doesn't punch as hard as Canelo overall, but pound for pound he was an enormous puncher. He floored Cotto multiple times in a war and he had to dig deep. I think Cotto has the reserves to dig deep one last time.

The 2nd Pacquiao knockdown is what could but I don't think will happen; Cotto being completely discouraged and befuddled and left with no plan B but to retreat. With Roach I think Cotto will remember what it's like to face a rough patch and take a tough shot, and have confidence that it's not all over and doesn't have to be that way the next round.

 

[Confucamus]

I got Cotto by UD and I think he will surprise some people. Canelo is a very talented and powerful young man though. But I believe Cotto will outbox him, but we'll see. Wouldn't be surprised to see Canelo win at all though.

But I see Canelo hurting him, possibly putting Cotto down once or twice

I just hope that it will be a great fight and that neither will get injured or hurt badly

Yeah pretty much this.

Such a great fight. Cotto by UD is my prediction as well.

 

[Bogotazo]

I'm pretty sure he did ride it out. When he was in the corner getting tagged he wasn't in any form of trouble and looked to be playing possum more than anything. Mayweather recognised this and layed off, then Canelo landed a solid right hand off the ropes. I think it's another good example of him keeping composed.

In terms of following his opponents rythm, he certainly didn't do that against Lara, he chased him around all night and stuck to the same gameplan. He targeted the body from start to finish and didn't get suckered into Lara's boxing game.

The Gomez fight may tell us a few things but ultimately I think Canelo has improved too much since then to use it as a serious base.

Nah, it happened multiple times, Canelo sat there and got hit. If he was playing possum, it backfired terribly several times.

Actually against Lara, he waited on him a lot while cutting him off instead of being first. Did you not watch the video?

 

[Marc A]

Do you guys think If and a big if Cotto gets hurt will he be able to dig deep?

He's been talking about retiring and he has earned it but when he has to dig deep I don't think this mentality will help him

 

[HHJ]

WAR Cotto War PR War NYC

that ginger is going down.

 

[Canelo]

Nah, it happened multiple times, Canelo sat there and got hit. If he was playing possum, it backfired terribly several times.

Actually against Lara, he waited on him a lot while cutting him off instead of being first. Did you not watch the video?

It really never, the moment I talked about was the the one sustained bit of aggression from Mayweather. Not a single person said Mayweather put a beating on Canelo after this fight.

Lara is one of the best pure boxers in the sport and one of the quickest on his feet, of course he is going to out move Canelo who isn't that type of fighter. But in the end, Canelo stuck to his gameplan and took away Lara's strengths. He didn't try and jab with him and he didn't leave him self wide open. He fought his fight from start to finish, which suggest he doesn't let his opponents dictate his fight.

Mayweather is the only guy that has disrupted him like that. Yeah I watched the video, but it's just select clips.

 

[HHJ]

I think he will. He is a warrior,and this is his last chance. He will make the most of it.

 

[Cracky]

Canelo is going to beat the piss out of Cotto..I think Cotto's only chance is to hurt Canelo.. if he tries to box, he is going to get worked

 

[Bogotazo]

It really never, the moment I talked about was the the one sustained bit of aggression from Mayweather. Not a single person said Mayweather put a beating on Canelo after this fight.

Lara is one of the best pure boxers in the sport and one of the quickest on his feet, of course he is going to out move Canelo who isn't that type of fighter. But in the end, Canelo stuck to his gameplan and took away Lara's strengths. He didn't try and jab with him and he didn't leave him self wide open. He fought his fight from start to finish, which suggest he doesn't let his opponents dictate his fight.

Mayweather is the only guy that has disrupted him like that. Yeah I watched the video, but it's just select clips.

We're not debating whether he "took a beating", but whether he was backed up and hit repeatedly. Which happened. If the video shows it, it's because it happened.

Canelo let Lara throw first many times when both were in range to throw, because he has the tendency to wait on the opponent. Lara doesn't counter much. He would extend that right jab, Canelo would freeze waiting for it, and then get clocked before Lara forced him to restart. That's a failure to impose himself completely, which is why the decision was contested.

 

[Seano]

Do you guys think If and a big if Cotto gets hurt will he be able to dig deep?

He's been talking about retiring and he has earned it but when he has to dig deep I don't think this mentality will help him

I don't think its a big if at all. Cotto has been hurt in almost every big fight he's ever had.

 

[HHJ]

is to hurt Canelo

No problem.

 

[parrythehate]

What's going on guys. As part of my getting hyped for this huge fight, I made this technical breakdown discussing the stylistic strengths and weaknesses of Cotto and Canelo. Enjoy and discuss!

[YT]cl2QDity9TQ[/YT]

Who are you picking? And did this affect your thinking about the fight at all?

wow, nice breakdown. It was detailed nicely. I think Cotto will win if Canelo doesnt stick to an offensive game plan it seems to me is that Canelo is morphing into a counter puncher instead of a methodical puncher. In order for canelo to win is to either find cotto's rhythm and counter or take away cottos movement by pressuring cotto and hitting the body. But I think cotto has an advantage over canelo to be honest.

 

[Seano]

I'm more interested to see how Canelo reacts if he gets badly hurt.

 

[Cracky]

No problem.

meh.. considering Cotto is more vulnerable to being hurt, it is a dangerous path.. but, it is his only chance..

 

[Canelo]

We're not debating whether he "took a beating", but whether he was backed up and hit repeatedly. Which happened. If the video shows it, it's because it happened.

Canelo let Lara throw first many times when both were in range to throw, because he has the tendency to wait on the opponent. Lara doesn't counter much. He would extend that right jab, Canelo would freeze waiting for it, and then get clocked before Lara forced him to restart. That's a failure to impose himself completely, which is why the decision was contested.

He was backed up for very limited portions of the fight, and when he was, he wasn't hurt or punished in any way what so ever. If you want to see an example of someone getting backed up and hurt, it's the Mayweather v Cotto fight you are after. Cotto was battered and hurt buy a relatively weak puncher, an offense that didn't phase Canelo at all.

So you're expecting him to completely impose him self on Lara and not make a single mistake? Well that's not going to happen. Not a single fighter at Welterweight or Middleweight could fight Lara without giving up ground and waiting on him in certain parts of the fight. A lot of people backed Lara to beat Canelo, the reason he never is because he stuck to his gameplan and never got suckered into a long distance fight.

Your main point is about Canelo getting backed up. The only fighter who has been able to force him to back up is Mayweather, one of the best fighters of all time. Even then it was limited and no serious damage was done. Any other time Canelo has hit the ropes he has either played possum or encouraged his opponent to become more aggressive. None of this is particularly relevant to the Cotto fight as he can't defend or take the shots that would come as a result of him trying to back up the bigger, quicker and more dangerous fighter.

 

[Shoemaker]

Cotto will probably get hurt, but he'll keep fighting.

 

[NaughtyBoy]

WAR Cotto War PR War NYC

that ginger is going down.

Yeah, WAR everything.

Canelo will put him away. Sorry man.

 

[Marc A]

What's going on guys. As part of my getting hyped for this huge fight, I made this technical breakdown discussing the stylistic strengths and weaknesses of Cotto and Canelo. Enjoy and discuss!

[YT]cl2QDity9TQ[/YT]

Who are you picking? And did this affect your thinking about the fight at all?

after watching your video I think both play into each others strength ... If Canelo can handle Cotto's power than Cotto is in trouble b/c of that uppercut .. Which even under Roach he still get hit with..

Cotto's hook is going be a problem for Canelo

what your video showed me is that Canelo actually has a great chance of winning .. before I didnt think it would be even close..

 

[Marc A]

I'm more interested to see how Canelo reacts if he gets badly hurt.

When Canelo gets hurt so you think he knows how to clinch or will he be a fish out of water , this almost feels like when Vargas fought Trinidad and I hope not

 

[HHJ]

Even tho i did root for salido vs lopez

 

[Bogotazo]

Bump! Getting hyped for this fight. Canelo has let out plenty of training footage, wish Cotto put out more (though it's probably smarter not to). Looking forward to the 24/7

 

[Bogotazo]

Hope Cotto tries this counter to the uppercut, as I expect Canelo will be looking for it.

Missing an uppercut can be a dangerous thing:

 

[The Can Opener]

I think it's a hurt em' type of fight honestly. I don't see either guy being superior enough over the other from a technical standpoint for this to end up being a boxing match. I think they both need to hurt the other guy to win.

If Cotto just tries to outbox Canelo he will tire from the pressure and end up getting beat down late. Canelo learned too much from the Mayweather fight to think he can just try to box his way to victory with any top level guy. Both of them are great at cutting off the ring and applying pressure. I think it comes down to whether or not Cotto can hurt Canelo to the body before Canelo hurts him to the head. They are both too good at everything offensive for this to be a boxing match. Someone is getting trapped and hurt badly but what is really exciting is that both of these guys have the ability to win the fight while being hurt or beat up or way behind.

War both guys!

 

[cottagecheesefan]

The closer this fight get, the more I see Canelo winning.

I actually picked Cotto initially, but I think the mileage on Cotto's tires will be the difference. I wouldn't be blown away if Canelo lands something early and dominates the entire fight.

That said, I'd really like to see Cotto get the win here. I've always liked Cotto.

This is how I feel as well. I was picking Cotto as well until just a couple days ago.

I am feeling that Cottos last 3 fights were a bit of a fluke, and has been making him seem better than he is. A fluke in terms of Delvin, meh, Gaele, meh, timing in regard to Martinez career likely played a big part, losing to Trout.

Meanwhile Canelo beat the 2 best boxers in the division, Lara and Trout, destroyed Kirkland and Angulo (on par with Gaele and Delvin), and did ok vs Floyd in his first mega-fight, where he was cutting a lot. Granted, I think Floyd would have beat him regardless.

 

[Canelo]

Hope Cotto tries this counter to the uppercut, as I expect Canelo will be looking for it.

Missing an uppercut can be a dangerous thing:

I'd be very surprised if Canelo got caught with that.

Geale's uppercut is very bad here, which needs to be mentioned, it's not a good shot. It comes from a very soft jab setup and you can see it a mile off. Canelo usually uses his right uppercut as a catch and shoot or a direct counter to a short jab or hook. He doesn't throw it off a weak jab like that, it's asking for a counter.

It's the left uppercut that Cotto has to worry about imo. Cotto has always had the problem of being wide open for the sweeping right hand, and Canelo uses an excellent right hand feint to set up the left uppercut. Mayweather hurt Cotto with the same sequence and it's the one Canelo finished Angulo with.

I imagine they've worked on a defense for that given that Cotto has history getting caught with both of those shots. It's just a case of whether Cotto is physically capable of avoiding the shots, Canelo is fast and accurate.

 

[Bogotazo]

So did the video give anyone new ideas or change their minds about the fight?

For me Cotto has the edge in ring generalship, which opens up everything defensively and offensively, while Canelo fires the specific punches that have put Cotto in trouble before.

 

[nac386]

This is how I feel as well. I was picking Cotto as well until just a couple days ago.

I am feeling that Cottos last 3 fights were a bit of a fluke, and has been making him seem better than he is. A fluke in terms of Delvin, meh, Gaele, meh, timing in regard to Martinez career likely played a big part, losing to Trout.

Meanwhile Canelo beat the 2 best boxers in the division, Lara and Trout, destroyed Kirkland and Angulo (on par with Gaele and Delvin), and did ok vs Floyd in his first mega-fight, where he was cutting a lot. Granted, I think Floyd would have beat him regardless.

After the Floyd fight I told you I thought Canelo won 3 rounds and your response was, "If that," iirc.

I'm sticking with Cotto. You'll be back. This is just a phase.

 

[Marc A]

Cotto lately his hooks have too much of a tell I hope Canelo ca. Catch it during the fight , since it's one thing to see it on tape another inside he ring .

And Canelo uppercut is pretty strong ! I still favor Cotto

 

[Thai Clinch]

I've got Canelo winning here, also beating David Lemiuex and ggg.

 

[cottagecheesefan]

After the Floyd fight I told you I thought Canelo won 3 rounds and your response was, "If that," iirc.

I'm sticking with Cotto. You'll be back. This is just a phase.

lol, yes I did say that.

There are a number of factors tho. Floyd has better movement, speed, and footwork than Cotto, and Canelo couldn't keep up. Cotto does those very well as well, but not on Floyd level. Cotto also doesn't have the endurance that Floyd has to keep moving like he does for 12 rounds. I think that will be the biggest factor, because if Canelo can keep enough pace to land maybe just 1 shot here or there, I think he has the power to really affect Cotto's durability. I think he will be worn down like in the Margarito fight.

When Cotto throws combos, he does plant and stay stationary for 3-4 punches usually before using lateral movement again. Where are Floyd throws 1-2, usually 1 before leaving the pocket. This definitely gives Canelo the opportunity to exchange. I Canelo has the versatility in his punches, and put together nice enough combos to sneak in a body shot underneath, or an upper in between Cottos guard. I think he will do better than Margarito in this regard, because Margarito has more predictable and much less sharp punches.

Cotto was able to look very good in the Mayweather fight, because he is bigger than Floyd, which help him take some of the punches Floyd was landing. Floyd didn't have the work rate or forward aggression to break down and stop Cotto.

I really want Cotto to win tho. He is one of my all time favorites, and he needs a big signature win (other than a somewhat old Mosley, and a Margarito with one eye). He lost the majority of his big dances.

I like how close the picks on in this fight, and how I am on the fence.

 

[Bogotazo]

I'd be very surprised if Canelo got caught with that.

Geale's uppercut is very bad here, which needs to be mentioned, it's not a good shot. It comes from a very soft jab setup and you can see it a mile off. Canelo usually uses his right uppercut as a catch and shoot or a direct counter to a short jab or hook. He doesn't throw it off a weak jab like that, it's asking for a counter.

It's the left uppercut that Cotto has to worry about imo. Cotto has always had the problem of being wide open for the sweeping right hand, and Canelo uses an excellent right hand feint to set up the left uppercut. Mayweather hurt Cotto with the same sequence and it's the one Canelo finished Angulo with.

I imagine they've worked on a defense for that given that Cotto has history getting caught with both of those shots. It's just a case of whether Cotto is physically capable of avoiding the shots, Canelo is fast and accurate.

Yeah agreed, the left uppercut is more dangerous. I think the key is don't stand in front to be caught like that, only get close at an angle. Cotto's biggest flaws against Floyd and Trout IMO were his response to long range combinations. Instead of stepping out, he'd earmuff and square up and simply wait for the other guy to be done. That's a no-go against Canelo. I much prefer his new more correct posture under Roach:

VS

 

[Sunfish]

Canelo by ko

 

[nac386]

Cotto also doesn't have the endurance that Floyd has to keep moving like he does for 12 rounds. I think that will be the biggest factor, because if Canelo can keep enough pace to land maybe just 1 shot here or there, I think he has the power to really affect Cotto's durability. I think he will be worn down like in the Margarito fight.

When Cotto throws combos, he does plant and stay stationary for 3-4 punches usually before using lateral movement again. Where are Floyd throws 1-2, usually 1 before leaving the pocket. This definitely gives Canelo the opportunity to exchange. I Canelo has the versatility in his punches, and put together nice enough combos to sneak in a body shot underneath, or an upper in between Cottos guard. I think he will do better than Margarito in this regard, because Margarito has more predictable and much less sharp punches.

Margarito and Canelo are so different though. Margarito is a volume puncher, almost unlike anybody else we've seen. Canelo is not a volume puncher at all, he throws a really conservative amount of punches (430 vs Trout, 415 vs Lara). Margarito was breaking 1,000 punches and had an iron beard.

I have questions about Canelo's movement and chin. I want to see what will happen when he gets caught on the chin by a legitimate puncher, and I wonder if he has figured out how to get off the ropes or if he will "wait it out" when Cotto has him in trouble.

The things Canelo has gotten away with in the past, he will not be able to get away with this time.

 

[Shael]

Good job. You hit pretty much all the points.

 

[cottagecheesefan]

Margarito and Canelo are so different though. Margarito is a volume puncher, almost unlike anybody else we've seen. Canelo is not a volume puncher at all, he throws a really conservative amount of punches (430 vs Trout, 415 vs Lara). Margarito was breaking 1,000 punches and had an iron beard.

I have questions about Canelo's movement and chin. I want to see what will happen when he gets caught on the chin by a legitimate puncher, and I wonder if he has figured out how to get off the ropes or if he will "wait it out" when Cotto has him in trouble.

The things Canelo has gotten away with in the past, he will not be able to get away with this time.

Hmm, Canelo's chin is definitely still a bit of a question at this point. He does seem to be stopped in his tracks by stuff that lands, which Margarito doesn't.

 

[dissufc]

It'll be a boring fight. It'll go to decision. Anyone's guess who wins.

 

[KootenayKid]

I still see Canelo popping him all night with his right hand, Canelo has already been in the ring with a wide variety of opponents, he will be ready, and his energy will take over.

 

[Bogotazo]

Good job. You hit pretty much all the points.

Thanks!

It'll be a boring fight. It'll go to decision. Anyone's guess who wins.

Boring?! How do you figure that?

 

[Sano]

Quality breakdown right there. Very well done! I learned a lot. Thanks.

I feel like Canelo is the superior boxer. His finesse is actually quite underrated. He does have some issues with his pace and ring generalship. As you said, he is too passive at times. I genuinely feel that if he had better stamina, cut off the ring better and pushed the pace more(intelligently), he could be an all time great. Sometimes he reminds me a bit of Joe Louis. With less power, less effective footwork and more defensive minded that is.

Cotto is dangerous, tight and has looked better lately. He will definitely pressure Canelo and test him. Not to mention, as you said, his jab is excellent and heavy and can get Canelo thinking too much.

This is a very intruiging fight in all aspects.

 

[Bogotazo]

Quality breakdown right there. Very well done! I learned a lot. Thanks.

I feel like Canelo is the superior boxer. His finesse is actually quite underrated. He does have some issues with his pace and ring generalship. As you said, he is too passive at times. I genuinely feel that if he had better stamina, cut off the ring better and pushed the pace more(intelligently), he could be an all time great. Sometimes he reminds me a bit of Joe Louis. With less power, less effective footwork and more defensive minded that is.

Cotto is dangerous, tight and has looked better lately. He will definitely pressure Canelo and test him. Not to mention, as you said, his jab is excellent and heavy and can get Canelo thinking too much.

This is a very intruiging fight in all aspects.

Thanks a lot!

I feel like Canelo would be the superior boxer if he tightened up the things you mentioned. He doesn't have any serious technical flaws and is clearly quite clever. His deficiencies lie in his education, especially with regards to footwork, and possibly in his stamina. I wonder how much truth there is to Roach's reports that he would skip days when he used the Wild Card to train.

 

[Sano]

Thanks a lot!

I feel like Canelo would be the superior boxer if he tightened up the things you mentioned. He doesn't have any serious technical flaws and is clearly quite clever. His deficiencies lie in his education, especially with regards to footwork, and possibly in his stamina. I wonder how much truth there is to Roach's reports that he would skip days when he used the Wild Card to train.

Interesting. It's hard to decipher whether his lack of stamina is an issue with training, or simply genetic limitations. Obviously style plays into it as well. Probably something in training they should change up though. I never thought discipline might be a factor. Man, I am really looking forward to this fight.

I subscribed, keep up the good work!