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Contender Series 2021: Week 5

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by BigSteve, Sep 27, 2021.

  1. BigSteve Purple Belt

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  2. SherdogWasNeverMyFriend Green Belt

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    I have 2 parlays. One contains Sudolski, Kuniev and Duncan and second which contains the same guys + Zellhuber and Borralho. Sudolski and Kuniev seem like a locks. Sudolski should bomb smaller man with punches and Kuniev should ragdoll Santos. Duncan is close to a lock, but Gaxhja had 2 years lay off and it's unknown how much he potentially improved. He's jacked, very confident on IG (lol) and even Anthony Pettis gave him a shout out in his comments. Duncan looks jacked too, he will be taller and should have the striking advantage (so in area where this fight should happen), but this Albanian confidence is making me slightly nervous. Thanks to his muay thai background, Zellhuber should have the striking advantage over Almeida (again, in the area where this fight should take place) and knows his BJJ too. Borralho is a BJJ blackbelt, Jeffery was subbed in the past. Their striking level should be similar, but the Brazilian underdog seems more powerful and has a better chance of knocking out the favorite than the other way around.

    Let's make that cheddar.
    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2021
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  3. Hellowhosthat If he dies he dies

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    Borralho is worth a look as a dog. Very elusive karate movement and striking, also tough to take down from what I've seen and if he does get taken down he went to overtime in a BJJ competition with Jailton Almeida.
     
  4. rev0lver Purple Belt

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    On all the favorites but really like Borralho as a dog pick. Sucks the line has already been bet down. Jeffery definitely has an experience advantage with the UFC-level comp he's fought. But he's a grindy fighter who doesn't impress me a ton, while Borralho's a confident, dynamic striker with good bjj. Not incredibly confident on it but a much better choice than the other dogs this week imo.

    Sudolski, Kuniev, and Duncan are locks imo. Poteria and Santos are bum can crushers. Sudolski arguably is too a little bit, but at least he looks good doing it. Gaxhja is practically a taekwondo one-trick whose opponents are a combined 2-13. Duncan's a tough-chinned brawler coming off of 3 Bellator wins. Can't really see those fights going the other way.

    Almeida's a decent fighter but Zellhuber's probably one of the best prospects out of Mexico right now. Young, developing, much higher ceiling than Almeida, but already very good and has some decent experience.
     
  5. Broe. Brown Belt

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    Zellhuber is really green and he has only faced local mexicans, I like almeida here as the dog.
     
  6. Shelter Brown Belt

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    To add to what Revolver already said on Gaxhja, he hasn't fought in over two and a half years and he just missed weight by about five pounds. (Edit: Just noticed SWNMF already pointed out the layoff)

    Yikes.

    Quite the weight discrepancy between Santos (234) and Kuniev (265.5). Have to think Kuniev smashes him, but I'd feel better about it if he had more of a wrestling background instead of Sanda. Santos is such a can crusher though so it shouldn't matter here.
     
  7. SherdogWasNeverMyFriend Green Belt

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    I just watched the weigh-ins and here are my takes:

    1. Kuniev is a heavy boi and if I wouldn't know that him and Santos are MMA fighters, I would assume Santos could beat the shit out of him if he just wanted to. Fortunately, I know that they are both MMA fighters and Kuniev beat the real competition while Santos was crushing the cans. I just hope Kuniev will not turn into Gafurov 2.0.
    2. Zellhuber is fucking big compared to Almeida who looked quite weak on the scale. I'm scenting ass whooping.
    3. Borralho and Jeffery are equally big, but Brazilian has the chad chin. Jeffery ain't crushing that. Also Borralho is in good spirits while Canadian stays serious. I'm curious if the second chance makes Jeffery more comfortable or he feels more pressure than at his debut.
    4. As Shelter said, Gaxhja missed the weight by 4.5 pounds. Still looks smaller than disciplined Duncan.
    5. At last, as I assumed Poterya is smaller than Sudolski, but in the same time he's bigger than I thought. Prediction stays the same, Sudolski by Legendary Polish Power.
     
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2021
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  8. rev0lver Purple Belt

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    Fwiw Kuniev's striking looks terrible and only lands shots via the takedown threats. And at the end of the day Santos is a HW who can throw a punch. But Santos just looks fundamentally pretty bad on tape and Kuniev should be able to wrestle and smash.
     
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  9. Broe. Brown Belt

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    I dont think Zellhuber looked so big compared to almeida.
     
  10. rev0lver Purple Belt

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    Zellhuber kind of is, but it's not like he's just been fighting total cans there. And from the tape I watched I never really saw him struggle. He's 22 with a muay thai background and a great build for that style. Really nice reach with his legs and should be able to outrange Almeida pretty heavily there. Also already a bjj brown belt despite not starting with that, can be pretty crafty on the ground with a calf slicer on his record. Just strong vibes of him having a future in the UFC even if this doesn't end up his time, whereas Almeida's kind of middling at 30 years old and it seems like we've already seen the best he can give.
     
  11. Broe. Brown Belt

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    Yeah I just watched almeida vs Cocuccio, extremely sloppy fight, Zellhuber should roll here.
     
  12. SherdogWasNeverMyFriend Green Belt

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    It's not so visible when looking at them from the side during the faceoffs. I compared their silhouettes when they were on the scale and there is a big difference in muscles in favor of Zellhuber.
     
  13. Zakk Lanphear White Belt

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    DWTCS 2021 Week 5

    Zellhuber vs Almeida


    Honestly surprised Almeida is undefeated. He doesn’t have a wrestling game to enforce his BJJ and his striking is plodding hooks and power shots. He’s off balance when throwing a lot, very defensively porous and throws naked kicks. Inversely Zellhuber is very mobile and see’s the shots he’s picking. He’s got laser punches to back up his versatile kicking game and uses his footwork both defensively and offensively. I’m excited to see where Zellhuber is gonna go in the UFC and don’t expect Almeida to challenge him very much here. Zellhuber is the pick.

    Jeffery vs Borralho

    Jeffery is the kind of fighter that Bill Bellicheck would Love if he coached MMA instead of football. Very technically disciplined in everything he’s doing. There’s not a lot of flash behind his game but he doesn’t necessarily need it. His footwork is picture perfect, measured and purposeful. He uses his feet to cut the cage as well as step out of danger instead of leaning out. He keeps his hands up, moves his head and pumps super straight jabs and crosses. His offensive wrestling leaves a lot to be desired but his defensive wrestling is fantastic for his level. He understands where his balance is, how to control his hips and absolutely rips whizzers. He’s really strong in the clinch as well and while it isn’t a pretty style, it’s certainly a round winning one. All of this with his deep tank makes a fighter that continues methodically pressuring forward, building momentum and capitalizing when the other fighter begins to crack. This is the guy you want to take out early but man is that gonna be a tough ask.

    Borralho is the opposite. Low hands and ready to throw something wild. It took some time to piece together his last fight from both him and his opponent’s instagram footage but it supports what you see in his earlier fights. A dynamic karate fighter who doesn’t have the cardio to maintain the style he’s enforcing. His game is really enabled by his athleticism, big leans, powerful lunges, explosive kicks and really ugly wrestling. I Love the versatility his striking brings but he tires easily and more importantly, he concedes the initiative when pressed. Something he can’t afford to do in a fight he’ll almost certainly be losing the 3rd round in.

    Borralho is definitely live for a 1st rd finish and I think could potentially win the first round on the cards with his difficult to track footwork and early aggression. That said, every second is a second closer to him getting melted with volume and grinding. If he becomes flatfooted he’s in trouble not just from a volume standpoint but because even at full energy, he’s very technically messy. Leaning into a lot of his punches and throwing naked kicks without getting your hands up or moving your head is a recipe for getting taken down or having straight punches drilled into you. Furthermore, Jeffery is too defensively sound for me to see him getting caught and KO’d here. Jeffery is the pick.

    Bet

    Zellhuber + Jeffery @+145 1U
     
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  14. BigSteve Purple Belt

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    this card is a bit 'how u going', but one bet that feels real good is the over 1.5 in first fight at plus money
     
  15. Stat_Collector Green Belt Platinum Member

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    I'm probably alone in this but I see value in Almeida for +190

    1.Better combinations ; throws to the body; has a high defensive guard ; moves his head out of the center line.
    2.five round experience, more cage time. Also competed muay Thai.



    I have to admit it's not a confident bet, the young guy Zellhuber is massive for the weight division but I see glaring holes, his main punches are the 1-2 and maybe one left hook, not a lot of variety there, td defense is lacking,gets his guard passed easy in a fight i saw . He reminds me of Uros Medic, good kicks solid kb , but still a little green and young. Mma fighters average winning age in the ufc is 30. Fighters around 22 years of age don't perform as well untill they reach their late 20s, with a few exceptions like Jon and Vitor .
     
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2021
  16. Kamais_Ookin Silver Belt

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    Duncan's opponent pulled out he's petrified
     
  17. SherdogWasNeverMyFriend Green Belt

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    WTF really? So now Duncan is not fighting? Lame...

    PS: They should call Gastelum lol
     
  18. rev0lver Purple Belt

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    Sucks. Duncan's a fun fighter with a great personality for the sport. Hopefully they get him back in soon or just have him on the undercard waitlist.
     
  19. EndlessCritic Steel Belt

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    How the hell was kuniev -500 here. Might pull this off but jeez.
     
  20. Kamais_Ookin Silver Belt

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    my streams are so laggy for some reason if anyone has smooth one pm me please don't care about the quality lol
     

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