Conor's strategy in the first fight : why change it in the second fight ?

I don't see it much discussed but what if Conor did everything right in the first fight but simply had slim chances of winning ?

So come to think of it :

Diaz has the "time" advantage : with every round, Diaz gets relatively more dangerous due to his "volume punching" style and cardio. That's why Conor threw bombs and try to take him out early.

Diaz has the advantage on the ground : ok sure that last takedown was kind of a last resort thing as Connor was rocked. But otherwise, Connor kept the fight standing since Diaz is way better on the ground.

Diaz has the size advantage : that's why Conor didn't try so much to clinch, dirty box him or wear him out against the cage.

Also, Diaz has a clinch advantge ; that's why Conor kept the fight at a distance.

--> So really, I don't see what Conor can do other than do exactly what he did, which is moving in and out of reach and use his very good hands. Except maybe do it better.

Afterall he did look brilliant until he got clipped, but that was not enough and Diaz was never in trouble. Maybe he did train his punching speed and power and his ability to move in and out.

Whaddya guys think ?

 

I'm a Diaz hugger for sure, but Conor obviously has a chance because the dude has crazy power in his left. But I agree, he basically has to do the same thing he did in the first fight, except not get tired, not get caught, and not get taken to the ground. If he can get to Nate's jaw with a few bombs, he can win this fight, but if he can't, it's not going to look much different than the first fight. He needs to crack Nate a few times with that bomb, because Nate got that iron chin. Conor has a chance, but it's an uphill battle because his only way of winning is to be tougher than someone that is really fucking tough. Diaz takes it in the 2nd round again.

 

Conor was coming off a 14 second KO over Aldo and with an additional 15lbs on his frame he thought he had the power to KO Nate too so he just came out throwing bombs in the first and blew his wad.

He'll take a more measured approach this time and wait for his opening and conserve his energy better.

He's already looking a lot leaner than in the last fight so I'm sure he'll be prepared to go a few rounds.

 

Conny doesn't have the power to KO Nate clean or so it seems from the first fight. To really KO Nate you have to wear him down and take him out of his game and this is where the leg kicks come into play.

Hard ask for Conor though, his leg sticks aren't that great and his game appears to be the pace setting head hunter - a combination that almost always falls to a Diaz brother.

 

I think Conor won't fight so aggressively this time around. Even though he did well and landed a lot in the first fight, he couldn't handle that pace and Nathan could take all he had to give. He will probably try to draw Nate in so he can slip and counter his punches. Also, make Nate run into his kicks. Nate will be the aggresor this time I believe. I think this fight will look a lot closer than the last fight and will go later, but Conor won't be able to keep up the pace and will be drowned out late in the fight.

 

Yep that's a likely outcome IMO.

 

That's where I am a bit skeptical. The more he waits, the more Diaz gets dangerous. Sure he'll be more cautious than in the first fight but I don't see it going all that different.

 

Conor has to pace himself as Nate is very durable. Wouldn't be surprised to see Nate pull it off again though.

 

Well I think if he keeps throwing big kicks he's gonna gas again. Boxing and leg kicks would be my strategy...but then again i'm not the mma fighter

 

Yep agree ; good post.

I also think that Diaz is a deceptively dangerous counter puncher. He actually counters alot even if his punches don't connect with power each time.

He's all about volume and Conor has a nasty habit of fighting with his chin out. He will get clipped a couple of times while coming in, which will hinder his punching game and make him loose his momentum. Rinse and repeat until Nate clips him good and wins the rest of the round if not get the TKO.

 

Good call TS. Conor has the speed advantage and some really sweet hand-striking, so that's what he needs to lean on.

The test will be more mental than anything for Conor. He said himself he broke mentally in the first fight when he saw it wasn't going as planned. I feel like he's strong enough to overcome that self-doubt and physically gifted enough to build a solid cardio base.

The first round was actually a lot closer than most people remember, with Conor missing a ton, but when he was landing he was busting Nate up, and early in round two he was doing his best work. Another round of that and even Nate would've begun to flag.

I mean, Nate had lost 3 of his last 5 going into the Conor fight. This isn't Khabib or Bones we're talking about here.

 

Why do you assume that leg kicks are a good strategy in this case ?

I really don't think that he'll be able to do anything with leg kicks to Diaz.

 

He could throw a lot more low kicks, that could help.

I have just now re-watched the first fight and for all the talk of Conor in the first round I thought it looked about even, neither guy did much it seemed more like they were feeling each other out, nothing significant really happened. I would give round one to Conor but only because he ended the round on top and landed a little ground and pound. Conor was a lot more active, throwing much more, but he hadn't found his range.

The first half of round two is where I think Conor looked to be landing a lot more and harder, the first two minuets or so of round two. I think they both looked slow and tired though, Conor landed some good uppercuts and a few good left hands, but it all looked sluggish. Once Nate landed a good shot that was it, he took control and there wasn't a lot Conor could do because he never had the gas tank to dig deep and push through. Nate seems to stay at the same pace throughout his fights, he spreads his energy evenly over the course of the fight. Conor on the other hand comes out fast, unloads and usually finishes.

The biggest factor in the rematch will be cardio. Nate will be the same, he will use his energy well and fight at the same pace throughout, and that really is his style I believe. He's not a slow starter, he fights with a moderate output, but as the fight goes on and his opponent tires he stays the same. So at the start of the fight he looks slow compared to his opponent because they are going full throttle, but as they tire and their speed drops his stays at the same moderate pace, and eventually that consistent pace ends up being higher than a tired opponents.

Conor could have saved a lot of energy if he hadn't thrown so many bombs at the air early on, big shots knocking himself off balance, to hit nothing. He needs to find his range before he starts throwing, but I believe he does need to do damage early. On a scale from one to ten Nate is a constant five in terms of output, even if it goes five rounds, he can keep that same steady pace. Conor on the other hand comes out quick, he's at 8 or 9 in terms of speed and energy usage, and keeps that going for most of the first round. It's after that first round that it becomes a problem, the speed drops as he tires, and he's down to a 6 quickly, he's in decline, where as Nate is still steady away. Over the course of the fight, fighters like Conor who come out fast, steadily lose energy. They start to breath heavy, punches come slower and start falling short, they haven't got the strength left to over power in the clinch. This is when an even keel fighter like Nate can take advantage, the punches that seemed to be coming slow in round one now seem to be coming thick and fast, but the output hasn't changed.

Conor has two rounds two take advantage of a 'slower' Nate, beyond that Conor will slow and Nate will still be there, chipping away meticulously. Nate is on auto-pilot, he's cruising along. Conor is full throttle on a half empty tank.

I think if Conor now has enough cardio for 2 and half rounds he will tko Nate. Beyond that he will slow significantly and Nate will take control.

 

I dunno. I keep reading that Nate's kryptonite is a good wrestler or leg kicks. As long as Conor doesn't try to blitz him in the first round blowing all his energy I suppose.

Edit: but if Conor wants to blow his was quickly and get boxed up and choked out again then I'm happy

 

I think his way to win this fight is the same way Condit beat Nick. Get in, land a few shots and get out of danger. Conor has the speed to pull it off, and it's not very taxing on the cardio. He could get a 1 hit KO, but lets face it, the chances of that happening are very slim.

 

He lost.

 

I don't really agree with the bolded part and that's my point actually : I think that he gave all he had to Nate, but it just isn't enough. Possibly Nate could have taken this punishment 3 more rounds like this without fading. That dude is tough as f**k. Obviously he would have lost by points though, but on the damage alone, I think that Nate was weathering the storm relatively well.

 

People are so fucking retarded when it comes to KOs smh

 

Didn't think of that. But I don't think that Conor can pull that off :
- Condit has way better cardio than Conor
- Condit is good on the ground, which Conor isn't, as that tactic implies that you'll end up on the ground at least once in a while. Conor is pretty compromised on the ground with Nate.

 

LOL. Typical.

Old accounts having a civilised discussion.

Then the first insults start as soon as a n00b comes in.