Cerrone is known to be a 'slow starter'. This I think has to do with his style and biotype: he is a lanky, long ectomorph fighter who fights at long to medium range at best, and needs to find his distance to land his most effective strikes, straights and kicks. But finding one's distance can take time. He is not a pressure fighter, and fighters who succeed at beating are generally those that are able to close his range and pressure him before he gets comfortable. It works sometimes, like with RDA and Till, and doesn't in others, like with Hernandez and Al. I really wish he would use his grappling, but I feel he won't for fan-service, which is a shame.
Conor is a strange beast. He is traditionally known as a pressure counter fighter, which sounds like a contradiction. He leans back and waits for the counter straight and hooks from behind, leaning back with a low guard, similar to a karate stance at times. But he was also able to look for the counter punch while moving forward relentlessly because for the majority of his run he fought at FW where he held a significant size and reach advantage, and where he could bully his opponents. When he faced Nate, he had much more difficulty bullying the longer, bigger man, and he himself admitted it. He doesn't deal well when he's being pressured, tends to lose his relaxation and wastes energy. I don't think he can have consistent success against fighters his own size, or bigger.
I was a bit shocked at the height and size difference in the weigh ins. It's pretty significant. And I think he is not going to be an easy target for Conor to find. He evidently needs to head hunt early on, but I am starting to think he is going to be just out of Cerrone's reach trying to overextend, and Cerrone is going to quickly stop him in his tracks, possibly to a TKO or KO victory. The size is going to be a bigger factor than in the Diaz fights, unless Cerrone throws his methodic approach and goes brawl mode, in which case it's a coin toss.
I'm picking Cerrone by TKO round 1.
