Comparing the 10 UFC fights of Conor and Khabib

[Source]

I like numbers. They tell their own story and they rarely add bullshit like people do. Draw your own conclusions, but I'm going to run through some facts:

Fact 1

Conor and Khabib both have 10 UFC fights

Facts 2 and 3

Conor is 9-1 in the UFC
Khabib is 10-0 in the UFC​

Edit - Double checked my numbers. Original incorrect numbers in red, updated numbers in green. Worth noting, not counting draws or NCs, as they throw a monkey wrench into the fold.

Facts 4-7

Conor's UFC opponents are a combined 107-52 (67.30 winning %) in their own UFC fights
Conor's UFC opponents are a combined 102-50 (67.11 winning %) in their own UFC fights
Conor's UFC opponents are a combined 208-74 (73.76 winning %) in all of their fights
Khabib's UFC opponents are a combined 82-60 (57.75 winning %) in their own UFC fights
Khabib's UFC opponents are a combined 80-59 (57.55 winning %) in their own UFC fights
Khabib's UFC opponents are a combined 203-95 (68.12 winning %) in all of their fights

My conclusion is that Conor has fought significantly better UFC opponents than Khabib and will soundly defeat him when they fight. Interested in other conclusions and kindly ask that they're backed by data.​

Adding another piece of data for those who feel that the original analysis is lacking:

Khabib has stopped 4 of his 10 UFC opponents for a finishing rate of 40%
Khabib's UFC opponents have been stopped 31 times in 139 UFC fights for a getting finished rate of 22.30%
Therefore, Khabib is 1.79x more likely to finish a UFC opponent based on their propensity to get finished

Conor has stopped 7 of his 10 UFC opponents for a finishing rate of 70%
Conor's UFC opponents have been stopped 23 times in 152 UFC fights for a getting finished rate of 15.13%
Therefore, Conor is 4.63x more likely to finish a UFC opponent based on their propensity to get finished

Funny that everyone is praising Khabib's smashing ability, but the numbers simply don't support it.​

Adding another piece of data. Opponents sorted by all-time ranking using FightMatrix. Finishes in green.

Yes, I've grown tired of people pointing out that you can't compare FWs to LWs but the reality is that you can. Anthony Pettis is an example of a highly succesful LW who didn't have runaway success at FW so the best fighters in these two divisions can be argued to be consistently competitive with each other.

There is enough data to suggest that the Jose Aldo that Conor McGregor defeated would beat any of the LWs that Khabib beat (outside of RDA) if the fight took place at LW. Now, I'm not so sure that the Jose Aldo that Conor McGregor beat would beat the RDA that Khabib beat, but I do think it would be a very competitive matchup.

There is however, reliable evidence to suggest that the 2016 version of Eddie Alvarez that Conor defeated would beat the 2014 version of RDA that Khabib defeated. Eddie Alvarez finished RDA in 2016 before losing to Conor. Perhaps you'd like to argue that RDA declined as a fighter after his loss to Khabib? Not easy to considering that RDA then went on the best win streak of his career.

Who here thinks that the Max Holloway that Conor defeated would lose (at LW) to the Michael Johnson, Al Iaquinta, Pat Healy or Gleison Tibau that Khabib defeated. I, for one, do not.​

Did you run your “analysis” on his opponents current records or on their opponents records at the time of their fight. If it’s the former your data is corrupted, and your conclusions are worthless.

 

[irishzombie]

If watch Khabibs last fight against Al it is very telling.

Al came in on about 3 days notice and posed no threat to Khabib in the first 2 rounds , yet watch Khabib at the start of
Round 3 . He is gasping for air .. against a guy that was posing no real threat ?

Khabib struggles to make the weight and his style is not build to last 5 rounds at 155

Imo Conor is going to destroy Khabib inside the first round . But if Khabib can somehow get past the first 2 rounds he will have nothing left to offer and when Conor starts hitting him precise on the chin with even 30 % of his power he is going to put him away .

 

[VegetaGD]

Sorry, but this is not a race or a war.
You are the one trying to change what you said each time.

All I noted is that you had a flaw in your assumption that number of wins (by Conor & Khabib) and their opponents is all you needed to make an asinine claim that Conor is better than Khabib.

I pointed out the flaws in your argument, and you then changed to "stopped opponents" (or, in your example, Khabib's lack of stopping his opponents).
So I noted that in this case, GSP (notorious guy who won decisions after decisions) yet is the GOAT of the division above. Plus he defeated plenty of guys who had a lot more finished than he did... and now you just try change your argument again.

Which one is it?
Will you continue lying and backtracking just to "win" the argument?

Key points:
- You have no clue if they were better opponents. They were mostly in different divisions.
- Conor leapfrogged all top 5 opponents in both division.
- Conor did not defend any his belts.
- Most Conor opponents were not at LW. Matter of fact, he fought ONCE at LW.
- The highest ranked opponents Conor fought (besides the champions) had no camp.
That's while:
- Khabib beat guys from the top 5. - Khabib would have even fought #1 contender (with full camp).Not his fault Tony got hurt.

But more importantly:
- You are looking at numbers in wiki.
- ANYONE can tell you that Watching the fights is way better.

Ok, enough, we’re at an impasse.

Let’s go on record with our predictions, this is the ultimate validation of one’s perspective.

I have Conor via TKO in the 4th round.

 

[Shaddows]

Ok, enough, we’re at an impasse.

Let’s go on record with our predictions, this is the ultimate validation of one’s perspective.

I have Conor via TKO in the 4th round.

LOL
that alone shows how wikipedia is bad for learning about MMA.

If the fight goes to the 4th, Conor will not have gas nor power to KO Khabib.
Either Conor wins via (T)KO in the 1st or 2nd round, or Khabib wins via (T)KO on championship rounds (or whenever Conor gives up) or an unanimous decision.

 

[VegetaGD]

LOL
that alone shows how wikipedia is bad for learning about MMA.

If the fight goes to the 4th, Conor will not have gas nor power to KO Khabib.
Either Conor wins via (T)KO in the 1st or 2nd round, or Khabib wins via (T)KO on championship rounds (or whenever Conor gives up) or an unanimous decision.

I like your joke book, may have to borrow a few at some point!

Still, you haven't made a prediction. I'd like your take on the following - I've included my predictions in green for easy reference:

• Who will win? Conor, Khabib, or draw? Conor
• By what method will the fight end? TKO
• If the fight doesn't go the distance, what round will the fight end? Round 4

We can have a little fun and see how the fight plays out.

 

[VegetaGD]

If watch Khabibs last fight against Al it is very telling.

Al came in on about 3 days notice and posed no threat to Khabib in the first 2 rounds , yet watch Khabib at the start of
Round 3 . He is gasping for air .. against a guy that was posing no real threat ?

Khabib struggles to make the weight and his style is not build to last 5 rounds at 155

Imo Conor is going to destroy Khabib inside the first round . But if Khabib can somehow get past the first 2 rounds he will have nothing left to offer and when Conor starts hitting him precise on the chin with even 30 % of his power he is going to put him away .

I'm not convinced that Khabib would take 2 out of 3 against Tony, Dustin, and Eddie.

 

[ifindgifsforjackslack]

My mian factors on who will win Is how they lost.

Conor has lost three times to cardio. With a submission loss in two.
Khabib has lost two. (He lost against tibau, let she be real) by getting the takedown shrugged off, out muscled in the clinch and forced to stand up.

I can see Conor win with an Aldo esque counter, but I feel you watch khabib loss in sambo, the guy is throwing at full power and khabib won't stop pressuring. If Conor doesn't gas, I'll be amazed. Both the guys that beat khabib looked like lightweight Mendez. Solid nuggets. Similar to how al Laquita fought but much better hands

 

[GBJohn]

Ish.

One titan has won belts in 2 weight classes and actually beat the champs to win the belts and fought a murderers row to get there.

The other titan won a decision over a real estate agent he couldn’t finish in 25 minutes.

But yeah, both resumes are impressive

To be fair, the “murderer’s row” McGregor fought at lightweight to get his title shot consisted entirely of splitting two fights with Nate Diaz with an agreement not to cut down to 155. I have serious doubts if he could have made it through an actual murderer’s row of lightweight contenders quite so easily.

 

[Shaddows]

I like your joke book, may have to borrow a few at some point!

Still, you haven't made a prediction. I'd like your take on the following - I've included my predictions in green for easy reference:

• Who will win? Conor, Khabib, or draw? Conor
• By what method will the fight end? TKO
• If the fight doesn't go the distance, what round will the fight end? Round 4

We can have a little fun and see how the fight plays out.

I noted who I think will win and how
Conor - KO or TKO on 1st or second round.
Khabib - KO or TKO Later rounds or decision.

 

[NinjaSpider]

Did you also take into account the size and reach differences Conor had over the midgets he was fighting in your calculations?

I was looking for those numbers as well

 

[fedoriswar37]

0 context in this post. Really ,each guys fought a few top fighters. As far as quality wins between them it goes Aldo RDA Eddie and thats where the rest gets trickey. Poirier and Max were NOT the fighters they are today , so you can't use them in the context that conor beat the championship version of Max or the improved version of Dustin. Simply looking at records of opponents does nothing

 

[NinjaSpider]

He's just hype
Fixed
He's never fought wrestlers
He got lucky
Wrong weight class

Now he has always fought people smaller than himself...

Actually i only agree with the last point becouse it is objectively true

 

[Chain Saw]

Yes, I've grown tired of people pointing out that you can't compare FWs to LWs but the reality is that you can. Anthony Pettis is an example of a highly succesful LW who didn't have runaway success at FW so the best fighters in these two divisions can be argued to be consistently competitive with each other.​

Bullshit, you can't compare.

Pettis was already on a 3 fight losing streak when he went to FW, and he only lost to the champ Max at FW.

 

[Dana_is_your_GOD]

This is MMAth: calculus

 

[NinjaSpider]

Everybody bags on Conor for beating up on midgets but Max, Oretga, Porier, were/are all bigger FW's than Conor was. What does that make them???? Khabib has been bigger than every guy he's faced except for T-Bol but yet he gets a pass. Some serious hypocrisy on these boards.

Becouse two thirds of all discussions on here are Conor related . The fact that other fighters are doing it doesnt take away from the fact that Conor does indeed fight significantly smaller opponents and that, in The eyes of many ( including myself), it's a negative aspect of the sport.

Ps. I agree with the Ortega mention. Him fighting Edgar just looked wrong...

Im a huge fan of weight ins right before the fight so the comission can intervene if the size gap is too big.

 

[Paolo Delutis]

I like numbers. They tell their own story and they rarely add bullshit like people do. Draw your own conclusions, but I'm going to run through some facts:

Fact 1

Conor and Khabib both have 10 UFC fights

Facts 2 and 3

Conor is 9-1 in the UFC
Khabib is 10-0 in the UFC​

Edit - Double checked my numbers. Original incorrect numbers in red, updated numbers in green. Worth noting, not counting draws or NCs, as they throw a monkey wrench into the fold.

Facts 4-7

Conor's UFC opponents are a combined 107-52 (67.30 winning %) in their own UFC fights
Conor's UFC opponents are a combined 102-50 (67.11 winning %) in their own UFC fights
Conor's UFC opponents are a combined 208-74 (73.76 winning %) in all of their fights
Khabib's UFC opponents are a combined 82-60 (57.75 winning %) in their own UFC fights
Khabib's UFC opponents are a combined 80-59 (57.55 winning %) in their own UFC fights
Khabib's UFC opponents are a combined 203-95 (68.12 winning %) in all of their fights

My conclusion is that Conor has fought significantly better UFC opponents than Khabib and will soundly defeat him when they fight. Interested in other conclusions and kindly ask that they're backed by data.​

Adding another piece of data for those who feel that the original analysis is lacking:

Khabib has stopped 4 of his 10 UFC opponents for a finishing rate of 40%
Khabib's UFC opponents have been stopped 31 times in 139 UFC fights for a getting finished rate of 22.30%
Therefore, Khabib is 1.79x more likely to finish a UFC opponent based on their propensity to get finished

Conor has stopped 7 of his 10 UFC opponents for a finishing rate of 70%
Conor's UFC opponents have been stopped 23 times in 152 UFC fights for a getting finished rate of 15.13%
Therefore, Conor is 4.63x more likely to finish a UFC opponent based on their propensity to get finished

Funny that everyone is praising Khabib's smashing ability, but the numbers simply don't support it.​

Adding another piece of data. Opponents sorted by all-time ranking using FightMatrix. Finishes in green.

Yes, I've grown tired of people pointing out that you can't compare FWs to LWs but the reality is that you can. Anthony Pettis is an example of a highly succesful LW who didn't have runaway success at FW so the best fighters in these two divisions can be argued to be consistently competitive with each other.

There is enough data to suggest that the Jose Aldo that Conor McGregor defeated would beat any of the LWs that Khabib beat (outside of RDA) if the fight took place at LW. Now, I'm not so sure that the Jose Aldo that Conor McGregor beat would beat the RDA that Khabib beat, but I do think it would be a very competitive matchup.

There is however, reliable evidence to suggest that the 2016 version of Eddie Alvarez that Conor defeated would beat the 2014 version of RDA that Khabib defeated. Eddie Alvarez finished RDA in 2016 before losing to Conor. Perhaps you'd like to argue that RDA declined as a fighter after his loss to Khabib? Not easy to considering that RDA then went on the best win streak of his career.

Who here thinks that the Max Holloway that Conor defeated would lose (at LW) to the Michael Johnson, Al Iaquinta, Pat Healy or Gleison Tibau that Khabib defeated. I, for one, do not.​

If only life was an equation...then all the time you spent making this post would be worth something...

But in reality combat is sporadic and full of variables that can not he accounted for by simple or complex math..

At the end of the day its what warrior shows up with the better prepared, mind ( game plan) body(condtioning) and soul( heart,desire to win) that takes the day..past records only show where they have been not where they will end up

 

[TheGrouch]

Interesting data. I believe Khabib opened as a -170 favorite (Conor +140). If that line get's further from Conor's favor, I'm definitely throwing down on him.
It's a close fight to call. Hoping for an unexpected finish, like Conor via armor round 4 or something lol.

 

[Streeter]

Conor has resume better than all other current few or low fighters so what. Unless beens gets stupid he wins

 

[Dana_is_your_GOD]

Yeah, but that fight wasn't based on numbers, this one clearly is.

 

[Dirge]

I like numbers. They tell their own story and they rarely add bullshit like people do. Draw your own conclusions, but I'm going to run through some facts:

Fact 1

Conor and Khabib both have 10 UFC fights

Facts 2 and 3

Conor is 9-1 in the UFC
Khabib is 10-0 in the UFC​

Edit - Double checked my numbers. Original incorrect numbers in red, updated numbers in green. Worth noting, not counting draws or NCs, as they throw a monkey wrench into the fold.

Facts 4-7

Conor's UFC opponents are a combined 107-52 (67.30 winning %) in their own UFC fights
Conor's UFC opponents are a combined 102-50 (67.11 winning %) in their own UFC fights
Conor's UFC opponents are a combined 208-74 (73.76 winning %) in all of their fights
Khabib's UFC opponents are a combined 82-60 (57.75 winning %) in their own UFC fights
Khabib's UFC opponents are a combined 80-59 (57.55 winning %) in their own UFC fights
Khabib's UFC opponents are a combined 203-95 (68.12 winning %) in all of their fights

My conclusion is that Conor has fought significantly better UFC opponents than Khabib and will soundly defeat him when they fight. Interested in other conclusions and kindly ask that they're backed by data.​

Adding another piece of data for those who feel that the original analysis is lacking:

Khabib has stopped 4 of his 10 UFC opponents for a finishing rate of 40%
Khabib's UFC opponents have been stopped 31 times in 139 UFC fights for a getting finished rate of 22.30%
Therefore, Khabib is 1.79x more likely to finish a UFC opponent based on their propensity to get finished

Conor has stopped 7 of his 10 UFC opponents for a finishing rate of 70%
Conor's UFC opponents have been stopped 23 times in 152 UFC fights for a getting finished rate of 15.13%
Therefore, Conor is 4.63x more likely to finish a UFC opponent based on their propensity to get finished

Funny that everyone is praising Khabib's smashing ability, but the numbers simply don't support it.​

Adding another piece of data. Opponents sorted by all-time ranking using FightMatrix. Finishes in green.

Yes, I've grown tired of people pointing out that you can't compare FWs to LWs but the reality is that you can. Anthony Pettis is an example of a highly succesful LW who didn't have runaway success at FW so the best fighters in these two divisions can be argued to be consistently competitive with each other.

There is enough data to suggest that the Jose Aldo that Conor McGregor defeated would beat any of the LWs that Khabib beat (outside of RDA) if the fight took place at LW. Now, I'm not so sure that the Jose Aldo that Conor McGregor beat would beat the RDA that Khabib beat, but I do think it would be a very competitive matchup.

There is however, reliable evidence to suggest that the 2016 version of Eddie Alvarez that Conor defeated would beat the 2014 version of RDA that Khabib defeated. Eddie Alvarez finished RDA in 2016 before losing to Conor. Perhaps you'd like to argue that RDA declined as a fighter after his loss to Khabib? Not easy to considering that RDA then went on the best win streak of his career.

Who here thinks that the Max Holloway that Conor defeated would lose (at LW) to the Michael Johnson, Al Iaquinta, Pat Healy or Gleison Tibau that Khabib defeated. I, for one, do not.​

I see Conor knob guzzling is in full force.

The statistics that interest me is that one of the two fighters is undefeated with 8 sub wins and the other has 3 losses by sub.

Which fighter got finished by a fringe top 10 fighter in the UFC again? refresh my memory please.