Comparing the 10 UFC fights of Conor and Khabib

[SOAzmayesh]

Did you also take into account the size and reach differences Conor had over the midgets he was fighting in your calculations?

I am a big fan of mcgregor but am in no way saying he will win, I hope he will but I'm not outright saying he will or wont

BUT

You haters are hilarious.
Every fight there is a new narrative, it really is testament to the guys ability and skill.

He's just hype
Fixed
He's never fought wrestlers
He got lucky
Wrong weight class

Now he has always fought people smaller than himself...

Lol, keep em coming

 

[Silverstar17]

If you're saying that more factors could be taken into account, I totally agree with you. To downplay one's competition however, is undermining the foundation of how fighters are evaluated. Not only are we looking at the UFC records of Conor and Khabib, we're looking at the UFC records of their opponents. When trying to estimate who will win between two fighters, most people fixate on their opponents to try to gauge the outcome. By going a step further and looking at the opponents of opponents, your body of data grows larger and anomalies are smoothed out. It's hard to deny that Conor's body of work in the UFC is superior to Khabib's.

Additionally, the thread is intended for those who suggest that Khabib will win based on a number of dominant performances. The reality is that he has 6 UFC decisions over a lower caliber of opponent than Conor has faced. Of this more talented pool of opponents, Conor has stopped 7 of them by TKO. I'm fine if you don't arrive at the conclusion that Conor will win based on the data that's been provided. That said, it should certainly sow doubt into the minds of those who think that Khabib is going to walk across the cage, throw Conor down, and have his way with him.

Your provided data does not help at all to predict the outcome though.

For reasons I already stated. They have no common opponents. And they use completely different styles.

So different opponents will give them problems or will be rather easy for them to beat. Also MMA records can be rather misguiding. For example it is hard to hold Khabib's level of competition and the fact that it seems slightly weaker than Conor's against him simply because he has not lost. He stayed perfect with the competition he faced. He did not even lose a round.

There is good reason to believe that Khabib would have little problems with Conor's opposition with only Aldo and maybe Eddie on a good day giving him problems.

Conor on the other hand has lost. And the second fight with Diaz saw him having to dig deeper than ever and he just barely edged it out. Just looking at styles it is reasonable to assume that Khabib would easily handle Diaz since his style poses the kryptonite for him and his brother. Excellent grappling, TDs and enough cardio to comfortably ragdoll and control him for 5 rounds.

However even if that happened it would do little as to indicate how he would be able to deal with Conor.

If you want to use competition to guess the outcome than rather look at the fights itslf and not at the final result. For example Conor has had problems against strong grapplers that got him to the ground and with guys that are very durable and have great cardio.

Khabib has fantastic grappling and TDs, seems very durable and has at the very least very decent cardio for five rounds.

We have seen him struggle on the feet a little. But the path to victory against him seem clear. Keep it standing at all costs.

Conor has the best hands at LW and has the ability to hurt people quickly.

This leads to the conclusion that the fight will be decided by one factor and that is whethter or not Conor can keep it standing or at least keep the ground exchanges to a minimum so he can do enough damage to finish Khabib or weken him enough to be able to win at least three rounds.

Based on what we have seen from both in different fights I would pick Khabib as the favorite because he has been able to get everyone to the mat especially early. And the fight will likely be decide in the first two rounds no matter the outcome.

Of course pretty much anything can happen though.

 

[mikesparrow]

I like this point. I ran the same numbers adjusted to 12.12.2015 when Conor faced Aldo

Conor was 6-0, Aldo 7-0

Conor's UFC opponents were a combined 54-26 (67.50 winning %) in their own UFC fights
Aldo's UFC opponents were a combined 55-24 (69.62 winning %) in their own UFC fights

Numbers are close enough where you couldn't have made the prediction based on one man fighting significantly superior competition.

There is a 1 big problem with the numbers: when fighters start their climbing in the ranks, they usualy start with a great record (let say 5-0, 6-0...etc) and are matched with fighters somewhat of a similar status. As they progress, they will be meeting guys with some loses on their record as those guys were facing much better competition near the top. Therefore their stats will start looking worse. There are not many fighters in the top 10 in any weight class with clean records. Someone who will claim than Conor was fighting same competition as Aldo prior to their fight would have to be an idiot or a blind nuthugger (it's usually the same). There is no comparrison at all.

 

[Sansnom]

I am a big fan of mcgregor but am in no way saying he will win, I hope he will but I'm not outright saying he will or wont

BUT

You haters are hilarious.
Every fight there is a new narrative, it really is testament to the guys ability and skill.

He's just hype
Fixed
He's never fought wrestlers
He got lucky
Wrong weight class

Now he has always fought people smaller than himself...

Lol, keep em coming

Him fighting smaller guys is not an excuse or something new. It has always been a fact.

Can you name anyone he fought at FW that was bigger than him aside from green Holloway?

Only bigger guy he's fought was Diaz at WW. Even Alvarez wasn't bigger than Conor when they fought at LW.

 

[TriangleMonkey]

You do realize those stas are for different fight divisions right? So Conor fought some better FWs than Khabib fought LWs? How would those FWs do respectively vs the LW counter-parts?

 

[SOAzmayesh]

Him fighting smaller guys is not an excuse or something new. It has always been a fact.

Can you name anyone he fought at FW that was bigger than him aside from green Holloway?

Only bigger guy he's fought was Diaz at WW. Even Alvarez wasn't bigger than Conor when they fought at LW.

So you answered your own question, diaz and Holloway...
Good work.
Now, what weight classes as he fought at?

 

[D 1 Wrestler]

Did you also take into account the size and reach differences Conor had over the midgets he was fighting in your calculations?

Only if we take into account that Khabib was hospitalized trying to fight smaller guys

 

[VegetaGD]

Here are my facts backed by data: MMAth does not work.

I'm not getting the impression that you understand MMAth. MMAth is when you Think Fighter A will beat fighter B because fighter A beat fighter C and fighter B lost to fighter C. That is the textbook definition of MMAth. Matt Serra wouldn't have been able to beat everyone that GSP did simply because Serra defeated GSP in a single fight.

What I'm doing is aligned with how fighters are ranked in the first place. You look at their entire body of work to draw a conclusion. If you subscribe to the logic that allows you to rank a fighter based on who they've beaten and who they've lost to, then (by default) you subscribe to the logic of this post whether you'll admit it or not. You're looking at the entire UFC body of work for both Conor and Khabib. 10 fights in the UFC is more than enough to gauge a fighter's ability. Some fighters are cut after a few poor performances. You then take it a step further by looking at the entire UFC body of work of all of Khabib and Conor's opponents to arrive at dataset that's difficult to ignore:

On any given night, a Conor McGregor UFC opponent is 16.5% more likely to win his UFC fight than a Khabib UFC opponent is.

If one can't see that this is significant, our perspectives are too different and it's unlikely that we'll ever find common ground.

FYI - I made some edits in the original post, worth taking a look

 

[Shaddows]

I'm not getting the impression that you understand MMAth. MMAth is when you Think Fighter A will beat fighter B because fighter A beat fighter C and fighter B lost to fighter C. That is the textbook definition of MMAth. Matt Serra wouldn't have been able to beat everyone that GSP did simply because Serra defeated GSP in a single fight.

What I'm doing is aligned with how fighters are ranked in the first place. You look at their entire body of work to draw a conclusion. If you subscribe to the logic that allows you to rank a fighter based on who they've beaten and who they've lost to, then (by default) you subscribe to the logic of this post whether you'll admit it or not. You're looking at the entire UFC body of work for both Conor and Khabib. 10 fights in the UFC is more than enough to gauge a fighter's ability. Some fighters are cut after a few poor performances. You then take it a step further by looking at the entire UFC body of work of all of Khabib and Conor's opponents to arrive at dataset that's difficult to ignore:

On any given night, a Conor McGregor UFC opponent is 16.5% more likely to win his UFC fight than a Khabib UFC opponent is.

If one can't see that this is significant, our perspectives are too different and it's unlikely that we'll ever find common ground.

FYI - I made some edits in the original post, worth taking a look

FYI.
I did answer to your "theory" on another post.
Worth responding to that IMO.

 

[VegetaGD]

I like numbers. They tell their own story and they rarely add bullshit like people do. Draw your own conclusions, but I'm going to run through some facts:

Fact 1

Conor and Khabib both have 10 UFC fights​

Facts 2 and 3

Conor is 9-1 in the UFC
Khabib is 10-0 in the UFC​

Facts 4-7

Edit - Double checked my numbers. Original incorrect numbers in red, updated numbers in green. Worth noting, not counting draws or NCs, as they throw a monkey wrench into the fold.

Conor's UFC opponents are a combined 107-52 (67.30 winning %) in their own UFC fights
Conor's UFC opponents are a combined 102-50 (67.11 winning %) in their own UFC fights
Conor's UFC opponents are a combined 208-74 (73.76 winning %) in all of their fights
Khabib's UFC opponents are a combined 82-60 (57.75 winning %) in their own UFC fights
Khabib's UFC opponents are a combined 80-59 (57.55 winning %) in their own UFC fights
Khabib's UFC opponents are a combined 203-95 (68.12 winning %) in all of their fights​

My conclusion is that Conor has fought significantly better UFC opponents than Khabib and will soundly defeat him when they fight. Interested in other conclusions and kindly ask that they're backed by data.

Adding another piece of data for those who feel that the original analysis is lacking:

Khabib has stopped 4 of his 10 UFC opponents for a finishing rate of 40%
Khabib's UFC opponents have been stopped 31 times in 139 UFC fights for a getting finished rate of 22.30%
Therefore, Khabib is 1.79x more likely to finish a UFC opponent based on their propensity to get finished

Conor has stopped 7 of his 10 UFC opponents for a finishing rate of 70%
Conor's UFC opponents have been stopped 23 times in 152 UFC fights for a getting finished rate of 15.13%
Therefore, Conor is 4.63x more likely to finish a UFC opponent based on their propensity to get finished

Funny that everyone is praising Khabib's smashing ability, but the numbers simply don't support it.

Just an FYI that I edited the original post to correct a few errors and add more data

 

[VegetaGD]

FYI.
I did answer to your "theory" on another post.
Worth responding to that IMO.

If you're going to call me out for MMAth, I'm going to have to dispute you head-on unless of course you're joking which it's not clear you are. In fact, your comment below reveals that you're using some method to gauge the overall talent of a division or the quality of a fighter:

If LW division is a stronger division than FW, with better fighters, then fighters at the top might have worse records, but because they are fighting overall better competition.
At the same token, because FW has worse fighters, it is easier for the top to beat those fighters making their records better and creating the illusion they are better fighters by looking strictly at their records.

How can you tell if a fighter is good or bad? Most likely you look at who they've beaten and who they've lost to.
How do you gauge the stronger of two divisions? Most likely you take the collective performances of its fighters and make a subjective judgement.

This is no different than what I've done. Comparing Conor's body or work to Khabib's by looking directly at their UFC records and taking a derivative metric which is the UFC body of work of each fighter's respective opponents. It's not MMAth. Not even close.

 

[fatbino]

Curious - did you use their current records or their records when they fought Conor or Khabib? I feel like this would alter the data. Holloway has kicked major ass since they fought. M Johnson has fallen off quite a bit since they fought.

Certainly Max is not the same rookie who lost to McGregor and would I think be a much tougher fight now...

 

[TripTictonic]

Interesting data. But it’s pretty much worthless when being used to predict something as unpredictable as a fight......

 

[Alpha_T83]

Definitely agree with TS. Conor has faced better competition than Khabib, especially in the UFC (which is what really matters). Khabib hasn't even been finishing every fighter he's fought. So Conor is fighting better competition and finishing more fights.

I think Conor is going to KO Khabib in the 1st 2 rounds -- but I agree that if Khabib makes it to the 3rd, he will win the fight by grinding on a gassed McGregor.

 

[mxer31]

I think it is obvious that McGregor has faced better competition. I don't think that means he will therefore defeat Khabib. I think Khabib has the edge in this match up.

exactly. i can see conor getting the KO but ya id agree that khabib has an edge

 

[Shaddows]

If you're going to call me out for MMAth, I'm going to have to dispute you head-on unless of course you're joking which it's not clear you are. In fact, your comment below reveals that you're using some method to gauge the overall talent of a division or the quality of a fighter:.

My first post was with obvious irony.
yes, MMAth is for what you describe.
But it can indeed be used on a broader sense, such as I described on my follow up post.

How can you tell if a fighter is good or bad? Most likely you look at who they've beaten and who they've lost to.
How do you gauge the stronger of two divisions? Most likely you take the collective performances of its fighters and make a subjective judgement.

This is no different than what I've done. Comparing Conor's body or work to Khabib's by looking directly at their UFC records and taking a derivative metric which is the UFC body of work of each fighter's respective opponents. It's not MMAth. Not even close.

Well, in here, you are blatantly wrong.
UFC has a LW division. How good is this division?
Well, that is something you don't know, unless you can have UFC LW division fighters fighting against other promotion's divisions.
In that sense, you have no clue and no way to judge just by watching what happened within the division.

but beyond that, you are trying to compare two completely different divisions, ans your only reasoning is "fighter won more at LW".

But as I said previously, most of the time it is quite the opposite of what you say.
A in weaker (shallower) division, top fighters will have better records since they beat weaker opponents.
At the same token, deeper division will have better competitivity, so top fighters might have more losses due to increase in competitiveness.

As you can see, picking any numbers is deceiving without applying proper reasoning.

 

[HHJ]

None of those numbers mean anything. What were brock lesnars statistics in his ufc wins?

 

[sdpdude9]

There's a large flaw in using only this data to predict a fight. Fighters don't necessarily get to choose which opponents they face nor does their opponent's resumes indicate how they would fair against each other. Aldo had far more quality wins than McGregor in their fight. Just because Khabib hasn't been able to face opponents with better records does not translate to him losing those hypothetical match ups. Your conclusion is pretty weak based on little evidence. You're just picking what data you want to support your prediction. You could just say Conor has lost 10% of his fights while Khabib has lost 0%, therefore Khabib will win. It just doesn't make sense.

 

[VegetaGD]

I like numbers. They tell their own story and they rarely add bullshit like people do. Draw your own conclusions, but I'm going to run through some facts:

Fact 1

Conor and Khabib both have 10 UFC fights​

Facts 2 and 3

Conor is 9-1 in the UFC
Khabib is 10-0 in the UFC​

Facts 4-7

Edit - Double checked my numbers. Original incorrect numbers in red, updated numbers in green. Worth noting, not counting draws or NCs, as they throw a monkey wrench into the fold.

Conor's UFC opponents are a combined 107-52 (67.30 winning %) in their own UFC fights
Conor's UFC opponents are a combined 102-50 (67.11 winning %) in their own UFC fights
Conor's UFC opponents are a combined 208-74 (73.76 winning %) in all of their fights
Khabib's UFC opponents are a combined 82-60 (57.75 winning %) in their own UFC fights
Khabib's UFC opponents are a combined 80-59 (57.55 winning %) in their own UFC fights
Khabib's UFC opponents are a combined 203-95 (68.12 winning %) in all of their fights​

My conclusion is that Conor has fought significantly better UFC opponents than Khabib and will soundly defeat him when they fight. Interested in other conclusions and kindly ask that they're backed by data.

Adding another piece of data for those who feel that the original analysis is lacking:

Khabib has stopped 4 of his 10 UFC opponents for a finishing rate of 40%
Khabib's UFC opponents have been stopped 31 times in 139 UFC fights for a getting finished rate of 22.30%
Therefore, Khabib is 1.79x more likely to finish a UFC opponent based on their propensity to get finished

Conor has stopped 7 of his 10 UFC opponents for a finishing rate of 70%
Conor's UFC opponents have been stopped 23 times in 152 UFC fights for a getting finished rate of 15.13%
Therefore, Conor is 4.63x more likely to finish a UFC opponent based on their propensity to get finished

Funny that everyone is praising Khabib's smashing ability, but the numbers simply don't support it.

Adding another piece of data. Opponents sorted by all-time ranking using FightMatrix. Finishes in green.

Yes, I've grown tired of people pointing out that you can't compare FWs to LWs but the reality is that you can. Anthony Pettis is an example of a highly succesful LW who didn't have runaway success at FW so the best fighters in these two divisions can be argued to be consistently competitive with each other.

There is enough data to suggest that the Jose Aldo that Conor McGregor defeated would beat any of the LWs that Khabib beat if the fight took place at LW. Now, I'm not so sure that the Jose Aldo that Conor McGregor beat would beat the RDA that Khabib beat, but I do think it would be a very competitive matchup.

There is however, reliable evidence to suggest that the 2016 version of Eddie Alvarez that Conor defeated would beat the 2014 version of RDA that Khabib defeated. Eddie Alvarez finished RDA in 2016 before losing to Conor. Perhaps you'd like to argue that RDA declined as a fighter after his loss to Khabib? Not easy to considering that RDA then went on the best win streak of his career.

Who here thinks that the Max Holloway that Conor defeated would lose (at LW) to the Michael Johnson, Al Iaquinta, Pat Healy or Gleison Tibau that Khabib defeated. I, for one, do not.

Added a side-by-side with rankings to the original post.

Does it not jump out that Khabib has only finished 1 fighter that has been ranked in the top 10 at LW? And now everyone thinks he will smash Conor? On the other hand, Conor has stopped 4 of the very best fighters in the game, two of which are succesful LWs.

 

[VegetaGD]

None of those numbers mean anything. What were brock lesnars statistics in his ufc wins?

Will you take a moment and share some numbers that do? When you predict a fight, what details do you use to assess the matchup?