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Who would win ?

Why would it be a coin flip? BJ Penn, a man who has worlds of experience, flash KO power, and has fought at weightclasses above his own for years is suddenly a 50:50 against a complete noob?Lets not get carried away...
Penn might have looked shot tonight, but he didn't come out in a wheelchair.
...and even if he did, it's a coin flip.
Why would it be a coin flip? BJ Penn, a man who has worlds of experience, flash KO power, and has fought at weightclasses above his own for years is suddenly a 50:50 against a complete noob?