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ORIGINAL POST
Trump and his allies have turned the impeachment narrative into confused gobbledygook with contradicting knee-jerk arguments meant to exonerate Trump's actions. Even though their claims are riddled with logical inconsistencies, they have incidentally controlled the narrative.
Let's refocus this cluster fuck by looking at oft repeated arguments against the inquiry.
1. QPQ are part of normal diplomacy.
2. The Whistleblower is a Democratic Soy Boy.
3. A QPQ couldn't exist because Ukraine didn't know the aid was held up.
4. A QPQ couldn't exist because the aid was eventually released.
5. Investigations into the 2016 election and Hunter Biden are part of normal National Interests.
CONCLUSION AS OF NOVEMBER 11TH
I now believe that there is enough evidence to prove Trump used the authority of his presidency for personal gain in a manner consistent with high crimes and misdemeanors. The overall color of the pressure campaign shows ill intent. A few broad points that suggest this are:
1. It is unusual to ask a foreign country to carry out an investigation into American citizens. It is especially unusual to ask a vulnerable and historically corrupt country to carry out investigations pertaining to political rivals and rival political parties.
This is tell one. Trump saw an opportunity to take advantage of a weak country, one that was already susceptible to corruption and deal-making.
2. The pressure campaign was carried out through back channels and against the advice of both diplomats and White house officials.
This is tell two. The effort would be rebuffed if done through normal channels. Thus Trump and Giuliani deployed a rogue campaign that included Parnas and Fruman as insiders.
2. There was an urgency in the campaign that implies political ends, to strike while the iron is hot.
This is tell three. Abruptly holding up the aid without explanation prior to the phone call was the pinnacle of this urgency. The White House knew what they were asking for needed to be incentivized - no country would want to appear to meddle in US elections openly.
3. The repeated need for the investigations to be announced publicly and for the language of that announcements to be dictated by the White House.
This is tell four. It is almost unbelievable that this actually happened. We have clear evidence in the form of text messages that the language was discussed. Furthermore, the need for a public spectacle has surfaced in multiple stages of the campaign.
Overall, I feel this is on par with Nixon if not worse. In the end, it is a matter of public opinion. Unless the dots can be connected without distraction from Trump and the GOP, nothing will happen.
Trump and his allies have turned the impeachment narrative into confused gobbledygook with contradicting knee-jerk arguments meant to exonerate Trump's actions. Even though their claims are riddled with logical inconsistencies, they have incidentally controlled the narrative.
Let's refocus this cluster fuck by looking at oft repeated arguments against the inquiry.
1. QPQ are part of normal diplomacy.
- Yes, that's absolutely right, but the existence of a QPQ wasn't an issue because QPQs are themselves somehow bad (inherently); It was an issue because if the aid package - a pre-existing and bi-partisan piece of foreign policy, was held up as part of a QPQ, it would be a clear abuse of power.
The latter part of the statement was why Trump and his allies initially made such a big deal about there not being a QPQ. Somewhere down the line, they forgot what the fuck they were made about, though.
2. The Whistleblower is a Democratic Soy Boy.
- Maybe? But this is null and void. Trump's own appointees assessed the contents of the complaint and determined that despite having reason to believe the whistleblower was biased against Trump, the contents of the complaint was of credible and urgent concern.
THE COMPLAINT WAS VETTED AND APPROVED BY TRUMP'S OWN PEOPLE.
Secondly, the contents of that complaint have now been largely verified by multiple witnesses.
3. A QPQ couldn't exist because Ukraine didn't know the aid was held up.
- Sondland has now stated that he informed his Ukranian counterpart that the aid was in fact tied to the investigations. Moreover, Ukraine new the aid was being held up through multiple channels prior to that communication.
4. A QPQ couldn't exist because the aid was eventually released.
- They aid was not released until there was a bi-partisan push to find out why it was being held up and an attempt to release it before it expired. It is within reason if not highly likely that rather than draw attention to their abuse of power, the White House decided to cut their loses and release the aid once it was being investigated.
5. Investigations into the 2016 election and Hunter Biden are part of normal National Interests.
- This is a gross representation of what happened. The back channel government and Trump's wishes to publicize these two very specific investigations that would benefit him both politically by fitting into his narratives show that Trump usurped existing Foreign Policy for his own personal gain.
CONCLUSION AS OF NOVEMBER 11TH
I now believe that there is enough evidence to prove Trump used the authority of his presidency for personal gain in a manner consistent with high crimes and misdemeanors. The overall color of the pressure campaign shows ill intent. A few broad points that suggest this are:
1. It is unusual to ask a foreign country to carry out an investigation into American citizens. It is especially unusual to ask a vulnerable and historically corrupt country to carry out investigations pertaining to political rivals and rival political parties.
This is tell one. Trump saw an opportunity to take advantage of a weak country, one that was already susceptible to corruption and deal-making.
2. The pressure campaign was carried out through back channels and against the advice of both diplomats and White house officials.
This is tell two. The effort would be rebuffed if done through normal channels. Thus Trump and Giuliani deployed a rogue campaign that included Parnas and Fruman as insiders.
2. There was an urgency in the campaign that implies political ends, to strike while the iron is hot.
This is tell three. Abruptly holding up the aid without explanation prior to the phone call was the pinnacle of this urgency. The White House knew what they were asking for needed to be incentivized - no country would want to appear to meddle in US elections openly.
3. The repeated need for the investigations to be announced publicly and for the language of that announcements to be dictated by the White House.
This is tell four. It is almost unbelievable that this actually happened. We have clear evidence in the form of text messages that the language was discussed. Furthermore, the need for a public spectacle has surfaced in multiple stages of the campaign.
Overall, I feel this is on par with Nixon if not worse. In the end, it is a matter of public opinion. Unless the dots can be connected without distraction from Trump and the GOP, nothing will happen.
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