Economy Industrial High Tech (Redux)

Deorum said:
Yeah, results were supposed to come when Intel reached an agreement with the legendary AMD engineer Jim Keller to come on board in 2018, but he inexplicably left the company last Summer for "personal reasons". It turns out that it was over the executive level clusterfuck and arguments over how much production should be outsourced to TSMC. The ship needs a fucking captain, and Gelsinger is plenty qualified. It also helps he spent the first three decades of his career there.
Click to expand...
Yeah, hopefully he does a good job. Def has a mine field to pilot through. TSCM doing production for them until 2023 will mean they have to concede on prices or IP or somewhere.
 
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/tai...st-time-in-decades-as-chips-demand-rises.html

  • Taiwan’s economy grew 2.98% in 2020 compared to a year ago, advance estimates by the island’s statistics office showed on Friday — the growth outpaced China’s 2.3% expansion.
  • The last time Taiwan’s economy grew faster than China was in 1990, when the island’s 5.5% growth beat its giant neighbor’s 3.9%, official data from both sides showed.
  • Strong exports from Taiwan — particularly of semiconductors — helped to offset drags from the Covid-19 pandemic, said Angela Hsieh, an economist at British bank Barclays
SINGAPORE — Taiwan unexpectedly became Asia’s top-performing economy last year — and outgrew China for the first time in 30 years.

It came as strong global demand for the island’s tech exports outweighed the hit from the Covid-19 pandemic.


The Taiwanese economy grew 2.98% in 2020 compared to a year ago, advance estimates by the island’s statistics office showed on Friday.

It beat the 2.58% forecast by its central bank and edged out Vietnam’s 2.9% growth. Some economists had predicted Vietnam would be Asia’s fastest-growing economy in 2020.

Taiwan’s expansion last year was also higher than China’s 2.3% full year growth in 2020. The island last outgrew its giant neighbor in 1990, when its 5.5% growth beat China’s 3.9%, official data from both sides showed.


106832946-1612155625712-Taiwan-China_GDP_change.png



“2020 has been a record year for Taiwan, and we expect the star to continue shining,” Angela Hsieh, an economist at British bank Barclays, wrote in a Friday report after Taiwan released the numbers.

The island’s strength in exports in the second half of last year — particularly of semiconductors — helped the economy to “easily offset” any drags from the pandemic, said Hsieh. The economist raised her forecast for Taiwan’s 2021 growth by 1.2 percentage points to 5.2% — much higher than official projection of 3.83%.


Taiwan has also had relative success in containing the spread of Covid-19, allowing its economy to avoid a strict lockdown experienced by others globally. As of Sunday, the island reported 911 confirmed infections and eight deaths, according to the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control.

Semiconductor dominance
Taiwan is a powerhouse in the production of semiconductors, which are important components powering products from cars, to computers and mobile phones.

Demand for chips surged globally when the pandemic forced people to spend more time indoors, as the lockdowns triggered an uptick in sales of consumer electronics such as laptops.

More recently, a global shortage of semiconductors led several automakers — including American carmaker Ford Motor and Japan’s Nissan Motor — to cut production at some of their plants.

Economists at research firm TS Lombard estimated that Taiwan and South Korea account for 83% of global processor chip production and 70% of memory chip output — which means the two East Asian economies have a near-monopoly status in both segments of the industry.

That dominance would allow Taiwan and South Korea to “leverage their increased strategic importance for economic and political gains” from the U.S. and China — their two largest customers, the economists said in a Friday note.

“Taiwan and Korea are on the front line of the US-China confrontation, reliant on China for growth, but on the US as guarantor of national security,” they said.

For Taiwan, such “wins” have included weapons sales from the U.S. and the lack of economic pressure from China, said TS Lombard economists.

The Chinese Communist Party in Beijing claims Taiwan — a democratic and self-ruled island — as a runaway province that must be reunited with the mainland. The CCP has never ruled Taiwan.

In the near term, China could become more reliant on Taiwan for semiconductors as it cuts out U.S. suppliers, according to TS Lombard. Beijing aims to become self-reliant over the long term as tensions with the U.S. grow, but some analysts said China’s ability to do so are still far behind.

“Cutting out US suppliers further increases PRC reliance on Taiwan and Korea,” wrote TS Lombard economists.

“Such is the Mainland dependence on Taiwan, that Beijing is unwilling to apply economic pressure to the island, instead China has adopted ‘grey zone’ warfare tactics, and even talk of military action, all while continuing to purchase TSMC products,” they added, referring to the world’s largest semiconductor foundry in Taiwan.

TSMC’s shares in Taiwan jumped 60% last year when the coronavirus spread globally. The shares have continued to climb this year, rising by 11.5% in January from last year’s close.

‘Lone growth engine’
It’s a matter of time before mainland Chinese companies catch up to Taiwanese capabilities in producing high-tech electronic parts such as semiconductors, said Iris Pang, chief economist for Greater China at Dutch bank ING.

“A few years from now, when Mainland China starts to achieve self-reliance in advance technology, not only will it not buy as much from Taiwan as before, it will also become Taiwan’s main competitor in the global market,” she wrote in a Friday report.


Until then, Taiwan’s growth — powered by the “lone growth engine” of electronics exports — will likely continue into 2021, added Pang. She explained that demand could come from automakers, as well as consumers upgrading their smartphones and computer equipment.

“All this suggests the market prospects for Taiwan’s semiconductor manufacturers are bright this year,” said the economist.

“So even if Taiwan arguably depends too much on the electronics sector for economic growth, job opportunities and investment, this is less of a problem given that other economies cannot compete on capacity and technology.”
 
PolishHeadlock2 said:
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/tai...st-time-in-decades-as-chips-demand-rises.html

  • Taiwan’s economy grew 2.98% in 2020 compared to a year ago, advance estimates by the island’s statistics office showed on Friday — the growth outpaced China’s 2.3% expansion.
  • The last time Taiwan’s economy grew faster than China was in 1990, when the island’s 5.5% growth beat its giant neighbor’s 3.9%, official data from both sides showed.
  • Strong exports from Taiwan — particularly of semiconductors — helped to offset drags from the Covid-19 pandemic, said Angela Hsieh, an economist at British bank Barclays
SINGAPORE — Taiwan unexpectedly became Asia’s top-performing economy last year — and outgrew China for the first time in 30 years.

It came as strong global demand for the island’s tech exports outweighed the hit from the Covid-19 pandemic.


The Taiwanese economy grew 2.98% in 2020 compared to a year ago, advance estimates by the island’s statistics office showed on Friday.

It beat the 2.58% forecast by its central bank and edged out Vietnam’s 2.9% growth. Some economists had predicted Vietnam would be Asia’s fastest-growing economy in 2020.

Taiwan’s expansion last year was also higher than China’s 2.3% full year growth in 2020. The island last outgrew its giant neighbor in 1990, when its 5.5% growth beat China’s 3.9%, official data from both sides showed.


106832946-1612155625712-Taiwan-China_GDP_change.png



“2020 has been a record year for Taiwan, and we expect the star to continue shining,” Angela Hsieh, an economist at British bank Barclays, wrote in a Friday report after Taiwan released the numbers.

The island’s strength in exports in the second half of last year — particularly of semiconductors — helped the economy to “easily offset” any drags from the pandemic, said Hsieh. The economist raised her forecast for Taiwan’s 2021 growth by 1.2 percentage points to 5.2% — much higher than official projection of 3.83%.


Taiwan has also had relative success in containing the spread of Covid-19, allowing its economy to avoid a strict lockdown experienced by others globally. As of Sunday, the island reported 911 confirmed infections and eight deaths, according to the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control.

Semiconductor dominance
Taiwan is a powerhouse in the production of semiconductors, which are important components powering products from cars, to computers and mobile phones.

Demand for chips surged globally when the pandemic forced people to spend more time indoors, as the lockdowns triggered an uptick in sales of consumer electronics such as laptops.

More recently, a global shortage of semiconductors led several automakers — including American carmaker Ford Motor and Japan’s Nissan Motor — to cut production at some of their plants.

Economists at research firm TS Lombard estimated that Taiwan and South Korea account for 83% of global processor chip production and 70% of memory chip output — which means the two East Asian economies have a near-monopoly status in both segments of the industry.

That dominance would allow Taiwan and South Korea to “leverage their increased strategic importance for economic and political gains” from the U.S. and China — their two largest customers, the economists said in a Friday note.

“Taiwan and Korea are on the front line of the US-China confrontation, reliant on China for growth, but on the US as guarantor of national security,” they said.

For Taiwan, such “wins” have included weapons sales from the U.S. and the lack of economic pressure from China, said TS Lombard economists.

The Chinese Communist Party in Beijing claims Taiwan — a democratic and self-ruled island — as a runaway province that must be reunited with the mainland. The CCP has never ruled Taiwan.

In the near term, China could become more reliant on Taiwan for semiconductors as it cuts out U.S. suppliers, according to TS Lombard. Beijing aims to become self-reliant over the long term as tensions with the U.S. grow, but some analysts said China’s ability to do so are still far behind.

“Cutting out US suppliers further increases PRC reliance on Taiwan and Korea,” wrote TS Lombard economists.

“Such is the Mainland dependence on Taiwan, that Beijing is unwilling to apply economic pressure to the island, instead China has adopted ‘grey zone’ warfare tactics, and even talk of military action, all while continuing to purchase TSMC products,” they added, referring to the world’s largest semiconductor foundry in Taiwan.

TSMC’s shares in Taiwan jumped 60% last year when the coronavirus spread globally. The shares have continued to climb this year, rising by 11.5% in January from last year’s close.

‘Lone growth engine’
It’s a matter of time before mainland Chinese companies catch up to Taiwanese capabilities in producing high-tech electronic parts such as semiconductors, said Iris Pang, chief economist for Greater China at Dutch bank ING.

“A few years from now, when Mainland China starts to achieve self-reliance in advance technology, not only will it not buy as much from Taiwan as before, it will also become Taiwan’s main competitor in the global market,” she wrote in a Friday report.


Until then, Taiwan’s growth — powered by the “lone growth engine” of electronics exports — will likely continue into 2021, added Pang. She explained that demand could come from automakers, as well as consumers upgrading their smartphones and computer equipment.

“All this suggests the market prospects for Taiwan’s semiconductor manufacturers are bright this year,” said the economist.

“So even if Taiwan arguably depends too much on the electronics sector for economic growth, job opportunities and investment, this is less of a problem given that other economies cannot compete on capacity and technology.”
Click to expand...

It's fitting that TSMC has dominated a large part of this thread, they're on fire right now. The decision to invest in and bring advanced manufacturing to the US is a big deal. I love the ROC.

In the early 1960s, Taiwan entered a period of rapid economic growth and industrialization called the "Taiwan Miracle". In the late 1980s, the ROC transitioned from a one-party military dictatorship to a multi-party democracy with a semi-presidential system. Taiwan is a developed country, ranking highly in terms of civil liberties, education, health care and human development. The culture of Taiwan is a hybrid blend of traditional Chinese attributable to the historical and ancestral origin of the majority of its residents, Japanese culture, Confucianist beliefs and Western values.
 
Yehudim said:
Huawei punching the air right now
Click to expand...
ElKarlo said:
That’s definitely a win. Glad these things are starting to bite
Click to expand...

I only wish it had been more broad, there are a lot of different Chinese tech corps to be squeezed that don't have Huawei's clout (yet). Trump actually did crush a couple of them who were blatantly caught attempting to purloin IP.
 
Deorum said:
I only wish it had been more broad, there are a lot of different Chinese tech corps to be squeezed that don't have Huawei's clout (yet). Trump actually did crush a couple of them who were blatantly caught attempting to purloin IP.
Click to expand...
It was ham fisted but it happened. No one else would have dared try
 
ElKarlo said:
Good. F them. Hopefully some more things will bite before it all goes back to how it was before
Click to expand...

Motherfuckers. Micron is one of America's most invaluable industrial tech companies and the only rival to South Korea's dominance of dynamic random access memory chips. It has stateside fabrication plants for in-house manufacturing (like Intel) and competes directly with Samsung and SK Hynix for that segment.
 
Deorum said:
Motherfuckers. Micron is one of America's most invaluable industrial tech companies and the only rival to South Korea's dominance of dynamic random access memory chips. It has stateside fabrication plants for in-house manufacturing (like Intel) and competes directly with Samsung and SK Hynix for that segment.
Click to expand...
It’s awesome that this was stopped. Wonder how much collateral damage will ensue?
And for Micron this means better margins and more money getting thrown into R&D sounds like a win
 
ElKarlo said:
It’s awesome that this was stopped. Wonder how much collateral damage will ensue?
And for Micron this means better margins and more money getting thrown into R&D sounds like a win
Click to expand...

It's already in the bag bro, this particular episode was during 2018/19. Fujian got rolled up and smoked like a @Sketch pack.

http://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4219290-micron-chinese-dram-threat-taken-hit

Last week, the Trump administration's Commerce Department placed Fujian Jinhua "on a list of entities that cannot buy components, software, and technology goods from U.S. firms." Additionally, of its own accord (supposedly), United Microelectronics (UMC) halted R&D with Fujian Jinhua due to the move by the US Commerce Department. But, this was likely an olive branch offering as the US Justice Department three days later indicted UMC and Fujian along with three individuals for conspiring to steal trade secrets from Micron.

The ban placed by the Commerce Department now requires a license to export, re-export, and transfer software, components, and technology to these two companies. This license, however, "will be reviewed but with a presumption of denial," according to the Department. But China can source equipment from companies outside the US, right? Possibly, but let's take a look at a list of the leading semiconductor equipment manufacturers in the world and the implications therein.

Three out of the top five are US-based companies - Applied Materials, Lam Research, and KLA-Tencor. ASML is a provider out of the Netherlands while Tokyo Electron, as you can surmise, is a Japanese-based company. And, as you also might surmise, Japan doesn't have the greatest relationship with China. This leaves only one out of the top five semi-equipment companies in the world able to sell to China - if it has the bandwidth to do so.

To make matters worse, if Fujian were already working with and sourcing its production equipment lines from any of the other four, it would have to start adding new lines with no baseline for equipment tuning, and for that matter, the would-be already figured out process can't be duplicated easily. Not having identical lines make for a poor DRAM manufacturing environment, not to mention a tuning and maintenance nightmare.

So, not only being short on sources for equipment but also once a secondary source is acquired, the ramping process starts from a much more primitive level, rather than merely duplicating other lines and getting up to speed faster than the initial line.

Furthermore, the most important aspect of memory manufacturing is R&D and movement toward the next generations of DRAM. Memory manufacturing is not about the current generation. The big three suppliers: Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix are working three generations ahead today along with any new memory types they might have.

For China, just getting on the DRAM train now means it will fall further behind if it's not also doing this. This becomes an issue as it can't access US technology and components to further R&D. Additionally, it can't purchase equipment to add to established lines for the required additional steps of newer generations or make up for lost wafer starts from node transitions.
 
Deorum said:
It's already in the bag bro, this particular episode was during 2018/19. Fujian got rolled up and smoked like a @Sketch pack.

http://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4219290-micron-chinese-dram-threat-taken-hit

Last week, the Trump administration's Commerce Department placed Fujian Jinhua "on a list of entities that cannot buy components, software, and technology goods from U.S. firms." Additionally, of its own accord (supposedly), United Microelectronics (UMC) halted R&D with Fujian Jinhua due to the move by the US Commerce Department. But, this was likely an olive branch offering as the US Justice Department three days later indicted UMC and Fujian along with three individuals for conspiring to steal trade secrets from Micron.

The ban placed by the Commerce Department now requires a license to export, re-export, and transfer software, components, and technology to these two companies. This license, however, "will be reviewed but with a presumption of denial," according to the Department. But China can source equipment from companies outside the US, right? Possibly, but let's take a look at a list of the leading semiconductor equipment manufacturers in the world and the implications therein.

Three out of the top five are US-based companies - Applied Materials, Lam Research, and KLA-Tencor. ASML is a provider out of the Netherlands while Tokyo Electron, as you can surmise, is a Japanese-based company. And, as you also might surmise, Japan doesn't have the greatest relationship with China. This leaves only one out of the top five semi-equipment companies in the world able to sell to China - if it has the bandwidth to do so.

To make matters worse, if Fujian were already working with and sourcing its production equipment lines from any of the other four, it would have to start adding new lines with no baseline for equipment tuning, and for that matter, the would-be already figured out process can't be duplicated easily. Not having identical lines make for a poor DRAM manufacturing environment, not to mention a tuning and maintenance nightmare.

So, not only being short on sources for equipment but also once a secondary source is acquired, the ramping process starts from a much more primitive level, rather than merely duplicating other lines and getting up to speed faster than the initial line.

Furthermore, the most important aspect of memory manufacturing is R&D and movement toward the next generations of DRAM. Memory manufacturing is not about the current generation. The big three suppliers: Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix are working three generations ahead today along with any new memory types they might have.

For China, just getting on the DRAM train now means it will fall further behind if it's not also doing this. This becomes an issue as it can't access US technology and components to further R&D. Additionally, it can't purchase equipment to add to established lines for the required additional steps of newer generations or make up for lost wafer starts from node transitions.
Click to expand...
Thank you for keeping me updated, gaybro.

I’m aware of a lot of this stuff, but I’m not actually totally aware of the implications, since I don’t understand the technology.
 
Yehudim said:
Thank you for keeping me updated, gaybro.

I’m aware of a lot of this stuff, but I’m not actually totally aware of the implications, since I don’t understand the technology.
Click to expand...

I hope @superking can keep it rolling once I'm gone.
 
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