Canelo vs GGG rematch close

Who wins?


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Much like I thought before their first fight, I think Golovkin will edge it on the cards on the strength of his workrate and jab. I see it being very close again.
 
After that last fight I'm thinking GGG has got to finish Canelo to get the decision. Can't see him winning a decision if it's remotely close even if he's the clear winner again.
 
After that last fight I'm thinking GGG has got to finish Canelo to get the decision. Can't see him winning a decision if it's remotely close even if he's the clear winner again.

The fight was very close and two cards reflected that. He was a single point on one card away from getting the decision in a very close fight. That's not the type of situation that immediately suggests to me that Golovkin has absolutely no chance to win on the cards regardless of how clearly he wins.
 
When I say improvement, I mean adjustments in their gameplans and how they fight. A 35-36 year old won't be something new suddenly. Still, I firmly believe that GGG has the more room to improve in the ring in terms of how he attacks. Canelo, for his own part, can't really change much and asking him to do more of something will be difficult because when GGG is patient and jabbing, he doesn't let his opponent get any traction (hence the significant chunk of the fight in the middle book-ended by the first and last three rounds). Canelo will want to exchange with Golovkin, but can't do that all night, and he will have to take breaks. Every time he takes breaks he loses the rounds. He simply can't do more, he can just be as good as he has already been. He may take more risks and mix it up more, but those things can only happen if he can get past GGG's jab. Canelo took zero risks when GGG was jabbing because he had no way of getting away with an attack because of the Golovkin counter. When he was able to walk inside (look at round 10), then he could get some work done. GGG is slower.

Canelo won't be able to increase his pace, that's the nature of him as a fighter. It always has been. His fast-twich movements and large build will always put a demand on his system. His stamina means he fights in spurts and doesn't put forth much of a sustained effort. That's just his build and body. GGG fights in a more sustained, slow burn, sort of manner.

Notice Canelo only outlanded GGG by 4 power punches (and I saw at least two that Compubox counted that were clear misses, but that's another story). If GGG jabs and then throws to the body, with his right or left uppercut and right uppercut, he can bank more power punches. When he did that, he was being more effective. It was the first three and a last three where his jab was more sporadic and when he was losing rounds more clearly (though not necessarily decisively, it was a good fight).

This is what I mean by more room for improvement. GGG just needs to adjust where he throws and mix up his punch selection (we know that he has shown an ability to do that), and he needs to be more sustained with his jab. Canelo will lose a close decision if that happens because his success came largely when GGG was not jabbing.

We also need to accept that Canelo was used to that kind of fight hype and atmosphere. He walked around the whole time leading up to and during the fight as though he belonged. GGG seemed a bit distracted and absorbed in this atmosphere.

Lastly, and I really saw this by round 3 to 4. Golovkin started to see Canelo's punches better and settled into the fight. His eyes adjusted and that's something that takes a bit if it is new. Canelo was always seeing GGG's punches. Going into the rematch, GGG's eyes won't be taking all that time to adjust again.

This is why I feel that the rematch offers some interesting points. I don't think GGG is a shoe-in to win. In fact, I think the fight is closer than it was the first time. One day GGG's chin might even say "enough's enough." He is 35 going on 36 and I've said this before: a pressure fighter fades earlier in life than a pure boxer. GGG is on borrowed time. A pressure fighter's peak fades after early thirties.

So I can't argue it clearly for one guy or the other, but I do feel that GGG has the more room to improve in how he attacks Canelo. Canelo will offer no surprises, he will just be damn good.

Sorry for the rant lol.


It's kind a dirty tactic but if someone has a really fast jab I have a hard time avoiding I hook them to the bicep here and there. Charlie Horse City. It's a tactic more boxers should use.

Canelo knows he has to give him a different look again. It's strange that you say Canelo will not offer any surprises. Because I was not expecting him to look so mobile and fast against GGG. Also ppl thought GGG was putting him on the ropes in the first fight. When In reality Canelo put himself there and showed tremendous head movement and defense and was able to counter and get out whenever he wanted.
 
Canelo will definitely get off combos on GGG and they'll be flashy and beautiful, and he'll land clean and be much faster.

Canelo will get backed into the ropes and have to fight or move away, and GGG will be the fresher fighter overall throughout the fight. Canelo has taken breaks against the ropes his whole career, I don't see him avoiding that against one of the best pressure fighters in the sport.

GGG will also get his jab through, I think his biggest adjustment is needing to go to the body more. At later viewings I thought he did better with his bodywork than watching it live, but he still needs to do work downstairs much more. Canelo's not a super mobile fighter but he's great with head movement and we saw that working well when GGG was trying to land power shots upstairs but missing a lot of the time in doing so.
I thought the first fight was close, Canelo showed a great chin, a big question we all were wondering about against a big puncher like GGG. We don't need to worry about Canelo going to the body, he's always great at that, love his hook to the body, when he throws that I get a bit of a chub going, no homo?

As others have mentioned, hard to not see this rematch being another competitive fight. I think the best GGG can do is try to work the body more, keep that jab up, and constantly be pressuring Canelo against the ropes. Don't worry too much about missing with headshots, just remember that you can set up a bodyshot with a feint or soft shot upstairs to get Canelo's head moving but his body will still be there to work.Eventually Canelo will have to pay attention to those feints/bullshit shots upstairs and it will take his focus off of his head movement, imo and that is when GGG can let em go up top.


I think Canelo needs to try his best to keep his back off the ropes and also try as hard as he can to control his stamina more, but like I said these are old habits of his, and old habits die hard, like Bruce Willis and shit. I also would like to see Canelo jab with GGG, Canelo has a great jab of his own and if he can get it off at distance he could get some good work done with that. I think his uppercut if GGG has him smothered would be extremely useful for him when he doesn't have much distance to throw from.

Obv every reg here knows I'm a GGG hugger, I love that dude, I'm rooting for him. But I think this'll be a close contest and one that I slightly favor GGG in, but will most likely be a close, hard fought, brutal fight, similar to what we saw last time out but with a couple of new wrinkles from both fighters, even if they're small wrinkles. Both guys know they need to adjust a bit despite having very respectable performances the first time out.

Can't wait for this shit.
 
I'm glad people who know their shit give GGG a chance. Maybe I'm too pessimistic on this one.
 
I'm glad people who know their shit give GGG a chance. Maybe I'm too pessimistic on this one.
Assanine to not give him a chance. These two are incredibly close.
 
Assanine to not give him a chance. These two are incredibly close.

While it will certainly be competitive, time factor + adjusting abilities + chin thickness will be awfully hard to overcome for GGG, IMO.
 
After that last fight I'm thinking GGG has got to finish Canelo to get the decision. Can't see him winning a decision if it's remotely close even if he's the clear winner again.
If he finished Canelo, it wouldn't be a decision.
<{hfved}>
 
I think GGG will come with the exact same gameplan. And it is effective.
Canelo will come in sharper and use more footwork claiming a close decision.
 
It's kind a dirty tactic but if someone has a really fast jab I have a hard time avoiding I hook them to the bicep here and there. Charlie Horse City. It's a tactic more boxers should use.

Canelo knows he has to give him a different look again. It's strange that you say Canelo will not offer any surprises. Because I was not expecting him to look so mobile and fast against GGG. Also ppl thought GGG was putting him on the ropes in the first fight. When In reality Canelo put himself there and showed tremendous head movement and defense and was able to counter and get out whenever he wanted.

canelo layed on the ropes to conserve energy and knows that his footwork and jab are inferior to golovkins that would get exploited in the middle of the ring if the fight took place there for the entire time. great gameplan.

i dont think canelos going to do anything differently whereas golovkin can go with his left hook more which he didnt throw as much while head-hunting going for the overhand right kowhen canelo was on the ropes.
 
If he finished Canelo, it wouldn't be a decision.
<{hfved}>

you are correct

if adalaine bryd, cj ross or stainley christodolou were the judges gennady would lose by dq if golovkin kod canelo.

bizarre, three of the worst scorecards for their respective years and they all belong to canelo alvarez
 
I thought Golovkin won the first fight but it was very close.

Canelo can make more adjustments imo, while GGG continues to age past his prime. So I think Canelo will nick it this time, and he tends to get some favourable judgements on the cards that should sway it his way even if it's 50/50.

edit: I'm rooting for GGG and hope BluntTrauma's assessment comes true
 
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canelo layed on the ropes to conserve energy and knows that his footwork and jab are inferior to golovkins that would get exploited in the middle of the ring if the fight took place there for the entire time. great gameplan.

i dont think canelos going to do anything differently whereas golovkin can go with his left hook more which he didnt throw as much while head-hunting going for the overhand right kowhen canelo was on the ropes.


Lol. It's amazing that you think Canelo can't do anything different when in this last fight he already proved he could by actually using his feet and head movement. You know, actually boxing. Yet your idea of GGG flipping the script is "throw the left more". Canelo's foot work is not inferior to Golovkin.




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OH NO! NOT THE LEFT!!
 
The fight was very close and two cards reflected that. He was a single point on one card away from getting the decision in a very close fight. That's not the type of situation that immediately suggests to me that Golovkin has absolutely no chance to win on the cards regardless of how clearly he wins.

One of those cards was a draw, mind you. Only one judge gave it to Golovkin. And batshit BYRD gave it to Canelo. So there was definitely heavy leeway towards Canelo from the judges.
 
One of those cards was a draw, mind you. Only one judge gave it to Golovkin. And batshit BYRD gave it to Canelo. So there was definitely heavy leeway towards Canelo from the judges.

A draw card doesn’t in itself suggest any kind of lean.
 
A draw card doesn’t in itself suggest any kind of lean.

Unless you're trying to ensure a preferred fighter doesn't get a LOSS on their record. The fight was close, but majority agree GGG edged it. A draw score effectively nullifies that outcome.
 
Unless you're trying to ensure a preferred fighter doesn't get a LOSS on their record. The fight was close, but majority agree GGG edged it.

So your position is the draw card was a gift paid for by Golden Boy Promotions? Yet you also saw a close fight?
 
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