I think you guys are overrating Jan a little bit, no doubt he is the 205 champ but he is not prime Jones or DC. Jan is 37 years old, he was underdog against Reyes and even against Adesanya after winning that Reyes fight. His defense wasn't great in Reyes fight, he just found the right angles and finished Reyes before Reyes could counter him. Adesanya even said he was expecting careless Jan after watching Reyes fight, his defense didn't impress Adesanya which is why he thought he could handle Jan and counter him before the fight. Jan also got KOed by Santos just 2 years ago. Vettori's striking defense is not bad, and he was never even KOed in his entire career, that doesn't mean he will not be in this fight or in the future, but you can't ignore the fact that Vettori came here without even getting finished by submission or KO. All of his loses are decisions, and one of them was even a close decision loss to current champ.
GSP also recently mentioned a good point that I didn't notice before, he said Adesanya also has trouble with southpaws;
- Gastellum
- Romero
- Vettori
All of them are left handed. I think this might be another factor in this fight other than Vettori's takedowns and wrestling.
But I still think Adesanya is slightly favorite to win, decision or finish. Can Vettori pull a decision win like Jan? We will see, I think it depends on his cardio, and we will see how good it is for a 5 rounds fight.
You guys are talking like Vettori has never fought Adesanya before, they already fought before and the fight was super close, it could go either way. It was nothing like Costa or Whittaker.