International Calling it now: Far right President will be elected in France in 2022.

[Boxingfan998]

From the interviews I saw of Zemmour, he seems to be quite strongly attached to French Universalism. I also wonder how France can survive as France without its attachement to Universalism, as it is one of its defining characteristics. I do not really have time for listening to this video, though. The little time I have for these things, I spend listening about political actors, or big picture thinkers like Raymond Aron.
Also, it's quite telling that you chose not to name Zemmour's aggressor by his full name, Valentin Abdelmajib. (He has a French first name, like Zemmour, though unlike him, he doesn't have a Berber last name, but an Arabic one.)

Zemmour is overtly campaigning within the legal limits of the French Republic, but the core of his campaign, and driver, is the theory of Great Replacement.
He knows it, and French people know it. The crux of this campaign, is whether or not the French people will choose to go extinct, or whether we will do as Charles Martel did in 732 in Poitiers. Everything else is peanuts and distractions.

 

[Deleted member 512089]

Marine Le Pen is over and out. She has successfully neutered her campaign and her base has flocked to Zemmour.
She has successfully turned her party center-right (or left depending who you ask), thanks to media pressure.
But successful politics are never about weakness. She should have known that but she is incompetent.
She acted like a fool, the debate with Macron showed she was not ever going to be President, and the French Nationalistic right saw it.

I'm just trying to give an objective analysis. I'm open to the possibility of being wrong to a degree but I try to stay neutral for the sake of having a real measurement of each candidate chances. that's the best way to achieve that goal. You on the contrary are giving me a supporter speech, which is ok it doesn't bother me, but is of no help in really understanding the situation, in reality it has quite the opposite effect.

 

[Boxingfan998]

I'm just trying to give an objective analysis. I'm open to the possibility of being wrong to a degree but I try to stay neutral for the sake of having a real measurement of each candidate chances. that's the best way to achieve that goal. You on the contrary are giving me a supporter speech, which is ok it doesn't bother me, but is of no help in really understanding the situation, in reality it has quite the opposite effect.

A supporter Speech? I have followed French politics for the past decade.
You think that Zemmour outperforms Le Pen in every poll for reasons unknown?
Don't take my word for it and do some research. Le Pen is being "larguée" by Eric Zemmour.
Her base is evaporating.

What everyone is saying is that she should declare support for Zemmour, but she is too proud for that.

 

[French Canadian]

Zemmour is overtly campaigning within the legal limits of the French Republic, but the core of his campaign, and driver, is the theory of Great Replacement.
He knows it, and French people know it. The crux of this campaign, is whether or not the French people will choose to go extinct, or whether we will do as Charles Martel did in 732 in Poitiers. Everything else is peanuts and distractions.

Yes, but the point I was raising was you discrediting a French citizen because of his last name, rather than considering him as French citizen that carries his LR card. That is like me discrediting a French citizen, Zemmour, for his last name. I was not saying that if 100 million Chinese arrive tomorrow morning in France, French civilization would survive. I was calling you out on ascribing labels to a French citizen on the basis of his name. (Also, it is quite funny that whenever the topic of racism comes up in French debates, French Universalism comes up and people on the right say that these are just American concepts being imported, because, in France, everyone is equally subsumed under the Universalism, whereas you - on the right I believe - are very quick to judge people on their origins and discrediting their belonging to the right - LR - based on that aforementioned origin.)

 

[Deleted member 512089]

A supporter Speech? I have followed French politics for the past decade.
You think that Zemmour outperforms Le Pen in every poll for reasons unknown?
Don't take my word for it and do some research. Le Pen is being "larguée" by Eric Zemmour.
Her base is evaporating.

But he doesn't outperform her for 3 weeks now. She's 4 points above him and increases the gap everyday more. Here, the official poll from the biggest french poll institute for December 7th :

https://www.ifop.com/publication/barometre-de-lelection-presidentielle-vague-7/

Zemmour is at 13% and Marine Le Pen is at 17%. It's a confortable lead for Le Pen. He's even getting caught up with the traditional right with Pécresse rising to 10%. Your facts are wrong.

What everyone is saying is that she should declare support for Zemmour, but she is too proud for that.

See, absolutely nobody says that in the french political spheres, like literally nobody, except Zemmour's supporter. That shows your bias pretty clearly. Again I don't have a problem with it you're free to be a Zemmour supporter but at least give facts and not biased misinformation, or just admit that it's supporter speech and is biased, which is understandable all advocate speeches are like that.

 

[Darkgsp]

Youtube censored his Presidential declaration for "vulgarities inadmissible for people under 18" to limit its reach <45>
They don't even hide themselves anymore. It's open censorship.

PS: Great article btw. Nailed the analysis.

A supporter Speech? I have followed French politics for the past decade.
You think that Zemmour outperforms Le Pen in every poll for reasons unknown?
Don't take my word for it and do some research. Le Pen is being "larguée" by Eric Zemmour.
Her base is evaporating.

What everyone is saying is that she should declare support for Zemmour, but she is too proud for that.

 

[Boxingfan998]

Yes, but the point I was raising was you discrediting a French citizen because of his last name, rather than considering him as French citizen that carries his LR card. That is like me discrediting a French citizen, Zemmour, for his last name. I was not saying that if 100 million Chinese arrive tomorrow morning in France, French civilization would survive. I was calling you out on ascribing labels to a French citizen on the basis of his name. (Also, it is quite funny that whenever the topic of racism comes up in French debates, French Universalism comes up and people on the right say that these are just American concepts being imported, because, in France, everyone is equally subsumed under the Universalism, whereas you - on the right I believe - are very quick to judge people on their origins and discrediting their belonging to the right - LR - based on that aforementioned origin.)

I was merely saying that the profile of the assaulter does not seem like the average LR voter, which if you were in France would know as wealthy old French men and women of the bourgeoisie. I am simply making a profiling guesswork of this criminal, as the police would do. It is only you that is still trying to find raaaaaaaaaacism in my assertions. Do you really believe, French Canadian, that there is no Islamic threat to the life of Eric Zemmour at this very moment? I know Canada is safe and far, but you don't realise the state of France at the moment. The Le Pen family, for instance, lives under 24/7 armed guards provided by French Republic, and receive thousands of Salafist threats on a monthly basis.

 

[Boxingfan998]

But he doesn't outperform her for 3 weeks now. She's 4 points above him and increases the gap everyday more. Here, the official poll from the biggest french poll institute for December 7th :

https://www.ifop.com/publication/barometre-de-lelection-presidentielle-vague-7/

Zemmour is at 13% and Marine Le Pen is at 17%. It's a confortable lead for Le Pen. He's even getting caught up with the traditional right with Pécresse rising to 10%. Your facts are wrong.



See, absolutely nobody says that in the french political spheres, like literally nobody, except Zemmour's supporter. That shows your bias pretty clearly. Again I don't have a problem with it you're free to be a Zemmour supporter but at least give facts and not biased misinformation, or just admit that it's supporter speech and is biased, which is understandable all advocate speeches are like that.

It is a waste of a discussion. If you have it in your mind that I am an irrational Zemmour supporter and that Le Pen's campaign is not in trouble, so be it.
It's no use to discuss it further. Just wait for the campaign results.

 

[Deleted member 512089]

I was merely saying that the profile of the assaulter does not seem like the average LR voter, which if you were in France would know as wealthy old French men and women of the bourgeoisie. I am simply making a profiling guesswork of this criminal, as the police would do. It is only you that is still trying to find raaaaaaaaaacism in my assertions. Do you really believe, French Canadian, that there is no Islamic threat to the life of Eric Zemmour at this very moment? I know Canada is safe and far, but you don't realise the state of France at the moment. The Le Pen family, for instance, lives under 24/7 armed guards provided by French Republic, and receive thousands of Salafist threats on a monthly basis.

There's a lot of hyperbole here. The Le Pen family is quite large, who exactly lives 24/7 under armed guards ? Because Jean-Marie doesn't seem to for example. Would you care to tell us who exactly and provide sources for your claim please ? Not saying it isn't true but I'm curious, and giving sources will add substance to your allegations so it's win-win.

Also everybody is threatened by idiots on Twitter. Even killers like Jon Jones. It doesn't say much.

 

[Deleted member 512089]

It is a waste of a discussion. If you have it in your mind that I am an irrational Zemmour supporter and that Le Pen's campaign is not in trouble, so be it.
It's no use to discuss it further. Just wait for the campaign results.

Wait man, you tell me "Zemmour is above in the polls do your research", then I give you the research (which I already knew but I did it) and because the facts doesn't fit your narrative you're ignoring me ? That's cognitive dissonance 101. Yeah no you're not a supporter at all.

 

[Boxingfan998]

Wait man, you tell me "Zemmour is above in the polls do your research", then I give you the research (which I already knew but I did it) and because the facts doesn't fit your narrative you're ignoring me ? That's cognitive dissonance 101. Yeah no you're not a supporter at all.

What use is discussing polls that fluctuate like the stock market? 3 weeks ago Zemmour outperformed LePen, now LePen outperforms Zemmour.
I am talking about my personal analysis, as a Frenchman (which you are not, you are Anglo and do not speak French) of the political situation.
We are months away from the election and things will fluctuate. But I believe it will be a Zemmour/Macron final.

It is your belief against my belief. You feel you are right, good for you. I'm not going to waste time and discuss polls ad nauseam.

 

[Darkgsp]

What use is discussing polls that fluctuate like the stock market? 3 weeks ago Zemmour outperformed LePen, now LePen outperforms Zemmour.
I am talking about my personal analysis, as a Frenchman (which you are not, you are Anglo and do not speak French) of the political situation.
We are months away from the election and things will fluctuate. But I believe it will be a Zemmour/Macron final.

It is your belief against my belief. You feel you are right, good for you. I'm not going to waste time and discuss polls ad nauseam.

My knowledge on french poltics is so low i really should not even talk in this thread but could you see it becoming a trump vs biden type situation , if old man Zemmour beats LePen ?

 

[French Canadian]

I was merely saying that the profile of the assaulter does not seem like the average LR voter, which if you were in France would know as wealthy old French men and women of the bourgeoisie. I am simply making a profiling guesswork of this criminal, as the police would do. It is only you that is still trying to find raaaaaaaaaacism in my assertions. Do you really believe, French Canadian, that there is no Islamic threat to the life of Eric Zemmour at this very moment? I know Canada is safe and far, but you don't realise the state of France at the moment. The Le Pen family, for instance, lives under 24/7 armed guards provided by French Republic, and receive thousands of Salafist threats on a monthly basis.

While I've never lived in France, I've been there many times and stayed in both rich places to see my family, like Neuilly-sur-Seine, and poorer places, when I had to pay for the Airbnb, like Grésilles in Dijon. I never felt any threat. But now is not the time to talk about perceived vs real risk (for exemple, French murder rate is lower than Canada's) and how your hysterical media (which I follow) amplify perceived risk. (I just did a praeteritio / apophasis, I know.)

The point is just that you are speculating about the guy and not acknowledging him being a true LR because of his ethnic background, which runs against the values that you are supposed to uphold if you are a true defender of French values. (Of course, the extreme right doesn't care about values and it's just a façade.)

 

[Deleted member 512089]

What use is discussing polls that fluctuate like the stock market? 3 weeks ago Zemmour outperformed LePen, now LePen outperforms Zemmour.
I am talking about my personal analysis, as a Frenchman (which you are not, you are Anglo and do not speak French) of the political situation.
We are months away from the election and things will fluctuate. But I believe it will be a Zemmour/Macron final.

It is your belief against my belief. You feel you are right, good for you. I'm not going to waste time and discuss polls ad nauseam.

Ah c'est vrai je parle pas français ? Mince moi qui croyais pourtant que c'était ma langue maternelle! Comment faire pour apprendre peux-tu m'aiguiller ?

I'm french lmao. I made it clear in the first posts of that thread. Went over your head. And even if I were an Anglo I was still offering facts so countering with "you're not french" was pretty empty honestly.

And how can you go from "Zemmour is over her in all the polls do your research" to "what use is discussing the polls?". What's the final say, are they useful or not ?

Zemmour is not cut for this election as showed by his recent slips in behavior, his base is not loyal and he lost a very big funder because of that recently. I thought he was going to be president 2 months ago, but he dropped the ball and everyone in France can see it. Except his supporters.

 

[French Canadian]

My knowledge on french poltics is so low i really should not even talk in this thread but could you see it becoming a trump vs biden type situation , if old man Zemmour beats LePen ?

Le Pen is 53, Zemmour is 63. French politicians are way younger than in your geriarchy.

 

[French Canadian]

Ah c'est vrai je parle pas français ? Mince moi qui croyais pourtant que c'était ma langue maternelle! Comment faire pour apprendre peux-tu m'aiguiller ?

I'm french lmao. I made it clear in the first posts of that thread. Went over your head. And even if I were an Anglo I was still offering facts so countering with "you're not french" was pretty empty honestly.

And how can you go from "Zemmour is over her in all the polls do your research" to "what use is discussing the polls?". What's the final say, are they useful or not ?

Zemmour is not cut for this election as showed by his recent slips in behavior, his base is not loyal and he lost a very big funder because of that recently. I thought he was going to be president 2 months ago, but he dropped the ball and everyone in France can see it. Except his supporters.

Le mec dit vouloir reproduire Poitiers 732 - ça m'étonnerait pas que ce soit (a) un anglo-saxon timbré ou un troll russe voulant pousser l'extrême droite ou (b) un "Zouave" (le groupe existant aujourd'hui, hein, pas les vrais Zouaves qui ont été pris en Afrique du Nord pour défendre la France).

 

[Darkgsp]

Le Pen is 53, Zemmour is 63. French politicians are way younger than in your geriarchy.

Le Pen is 53, Zemmour is 63. French politicians are way younger than in your geriarchy.

merci pour l'information monsieur !

Who do you seeing winning if it did come down to Zemmour vs Macron ?

 

[Andy Capp]

He pretends to be a conservative but in reality he's a true bourgeois from Paris. He's so out of touch that he recently said that owning a 100 meter square apartment inside Paris isn't a sign of wealth. If you know about real estate price in Paris then you know what it means lol.

Yeah he's more of a rabble-rouser than anything. Won't be elected imo. I thought he would but he's carrying himself poorly now that it has became real

Is that 100 m^2 or a 100 meter square?

Asking for a friend.

 

[Deleted member 512089]

Le mec dit vouloir reproduire Poitiers 732 - ça m'étonnerait pas que ce soit (a) un anglo-saxon timbré ou un troll russe voulant pousser l'extrême droite ou (b) un "Zouave" (le groupe existant aujourd'hui, hein, pas les vrais Zouaves qui ont été pris en Afrique du Nord pour défendre la France).

C'est pour cela que j'essaie de rester dans le factuel et rien d'autre car ça vire vite à l'émotionnel avec ce type de personnes.

 

[Islam Imamate]

While I've never lived in France, I've been there many times and stayed in both rich places to see my family, like Neuilly-sur-Seine, and poorer places, when I had to pay for the Airbnb, like Grésilles in Dijon. I never felt any threat. But now is not the time to talk about perceived vs real risk (for exemple, French murder rate is lower than Canada's) and how your hysterical media (which I follow) amplify perceived risk. (I just did a praeteritio / apophasis, I know.)

The point is just that you are speculating about the guy and not acknowledging him being a true LR because of his ethnic background, which runs against the values that you are supposed to uphold if you are a true defender of French values. (Of course, the extreme right doesn't care about values and it's just a façade.)

See that's the issue with the right in some of these countries, they will cite universalism when its convenient and rhetorically facilitates putting the squeeze on minorities but will also abandon it and make French citizens into the ethnic "Other" when its convenient.

Its part of a deeper contradiction in the right in some of these countries. They will talk of Western exceptionalism but then have disdain for the fruits of that so called exceptionalism, namely liberal political economy and its institution building(EU, UN, World Bank, IMF).