Discussion in 'Sports Bar' started by Frank23, Jun 5, 2014.
Will California Chrome win the Belmont Stakes and become the 12th Triple Crown champion?
Check out the Kentucky Derby thread.
I didn't see anything.
"Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time." - Harvey Pack
Chrome can certainly win this race if everything goes his way as he's the most talented and fastest 3 year-old in America right now. He's also made a nice appearance in his works on the track, so he appears to have taken to the surface. His running style is also reasonably suited for this race But as we've seen so many times in the Belmont the "best horse" doesn't generally win this race with the distance being the great equalizer. Only 2 of the last 18 favourites have won this race. And only 2 of the last 18 three year-olds of the year has won this race as well. He also has quite a few more historical trends going against him too, which I posted in that other thread.
But if eliminating trends because those were different horses and only focused on Chrome ability to stay 12 furlongs, I'd be concerned if I was backing him. His pedigree for the distance says it's probably well beyond his limit. In fact, in winning the Derby I'd say he has already outrun his pedigree. But also take a look at both his races so for in his Triple Crown bid (either watch or check the PPs/charts of them). In the 10f distance of the Derby he had a 5 length lead at the eighth pole and by the end finished less than 2 lengths ahead of the 2nd place finisher in that race (plenty of others gained ground on him too). Now Espinoza did ease up on him over the last 100 yards or so in that race, but that would have made next to no difference in the amount of ground he lost in the stretch. You're not slowing an animal by 3 lengths in 100 yards when its 10 times the size of you. Not even close. Also in the 9.5f Preakness Chrome also lost ground in the stretch after having been 3 lengths ahead at the eighth pole and only finishing 1.5 lengths ahead of Ride On Curlin at the end. And Espinoza wasn't easing him in that one with Chrome being asked to run all the way to the line. Both of those races he also got ideal and clear stalking trips too, which may not happen in the Belmont. There could be other jockeys gunning for Chrome and challenging him long before Espinoza would prefer.
Also if you watch Chrome's other races he's a horse that likes to take command of the races for much of it. He's by no means a headstrong horse or anything like that. No way. But nor is he has horse that likes to relax much in his races either, which is going to be vital when being asked to go a quarter mile further than he has ever done before (and will again).
Chrome, like Ride On Curlin and General A Rod, is also being asked to race his 3rd race in 5 weeks at a distance far longer than he's ever ran before. That means that, like the other two, he's going to be receiving his third shot of lasix in that time span and if you asked those directly inside the racing industry (trainers and such) many will point to lasix as the main reason why we haven't seen a horse win the Triple Crown in the last 36 years. No horse has won the Triple Crown since lasix was implemented and practically every one of those horses who had a chance at the feat had more ability than Chrome if simply going by the speed figures. Coincidence? A lot of people in the know would say not. As much as it helps the horses to stop bleeding, it also hurts them somewhat as well since it dehydrates them and requires them to have recovery time. Chrome is also going against about 8 other horses who are well rested (4 or 5 weeks off, 2nd race in 8/9 weeks, etc) and who are more liable to relish to Belmont distance based on their respective pedigrees. Horses like Wicked Strong, Commissioner, Medal Count, and Tonalist can be especially dangerous at the 12 furlong distance.
So yeah. If the race comes down to the proven best horse at 9f & 10f simply being the best horse yet again at 12f then he'll win it. But considering how infrequently that happens and how tough a task it is I'd bet against it happening. Which is what I'll be doing. Especially at 2-5 odds or whatever he closes at. If you're a gambler who wants to back Chrome in a single my best advice is to bet him to place. You're not only getting a more flexible outcome with your bet, but your also very likely going to get better place odds than you would on win bets just because of how many "souvenir tickets" are going to be bet on him just in case he does pull it off. That has happened quite often with these horses going for the Triple Crown at Belmont just because the place pool for him will be largely ignored by all those save for the smart handicappers with an eye on the tote.
Good luck to you, though. And to Chrome. If I do have to rip up some tickets on Saturday I'd certainly hope that his winning it is the cause as to why I'm doing it.
Gonna run straight to the glue factory
I don't think that he will win.
Odds are against him winning it I'd say, although he still has a good shot. Not at 70% or whatever his final odds at 2-5 or thereabouts will reflect. But he still is one of the more likely winners of the race.
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