normal Cain should beat this Overeem.
the thing is, i doubt the normal Cain will show up. he'll be fat and slow again, and gas like he did vs Werdum and then it'll be anyone's fight.
i know, everyone talks about Curtis Blaydes smashing Reem, but Curtis Blaydes is a perfectly healthy 27 yr old 6'4 260lbs gorilla, and as fragile and inconsistent as Reem is, if he shows up and throws the kind of knees he threw vs Mark Hunt or throws a punch like he did vs Stipe and it hits Cain, Cain will probably be KO'd.