cain...one lucky punch.

I don't think that's too likely. I think his knee injury altered his gameplan the first time. Why would he fight JDS differently than he fought Kongo? Sure, he's better at setting up his takedowns with strikes now, but that wasn't really what he was doing in the first JDS fight, he was just lacking his aggressiveness. It makes sense that if he had a fairly serious knee injury (that still was possible to fight on) he lacked confidence in pushing the pace with wrestling like he usually does against strikers.

...because JDS had previously looked like a vastly more effective striker with better takedown defence?

Cain hardly flew out of the blocks vs Nog and Rothwell either so its not as if instant aggression was his haulmark before that fight.
 
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