C-19 is asymptomatic in too many people for the idea that more testing can eliminate it. Impossible.

[SBJJ]

It might turn out that you are right, but at this point in time there are pretty much only unknowns about this thing.
Even if mass testing doesn't work in stopping it, but still gives usefull info I'm all for it. But it will probably be a while before the medical world has the extra time to do this.

Let's say we really mass test. Like uber mass test. Let's say we have 30 million with the virus. How on earth do you contact trace those 30 million? We barely have enough nurses and doctors supposedly.

You would need a department of a million employees to do it.

 

[THEfightsAREfixed]

What are you talking about? There's been case studies showing asymptomatic transmission for months.

did you actually read these studies? they don't prove anything, they are individual isolated cases where they are presuming asymptomatic could have occurred, these don't provide empirical experimental data that asymptomatic transmission took place, and the mechanism by which it could is also unknown seeing as how the viral load is highest after the onset of symptoms and collects in your nose/mouth and then you cough it onto things or people, but you are not coughing and you don't have a high viral load before symptoms

 

[Ruprecht]

did you actually read these studies? they don't prove anything, they are individual isolated cases where they are presuming asymptomatic could have occurred, these don't provide empirical experimental data that asymptomatic transmission took place, and the mechanism by which it could is also unknown seeing as how the viral load is highest after the onset of symptoms and collects in your nose/mouth and then you cough it onto things or people, but you are not coughing and you don't have a high viral load before symptoms

Yes, I read them. Hence my opinion that you are spouting nonsense. They are case studies, so of course it's not experimental data. The individuals managed to transmit the infection prior to an onset of symptoms.
Likewise, there are asymptomatic infected with viral loads as high as the symptomatic.
You appear to be just talking out of your arse.

 

[THEfightsAREfixed]

Yes, I read them. Hence my opinion that you are spouting nonsense. They are case studies, so of course it's not experimental data. The individuals managed to transmit the infection prior to an onset of symptoms.
Likewise, there are asymptomatic infected with viral loads as high as the symptomatic.
You appear to be just talking out of your arse.

Nope, actually you're claiming a case study where two single anecdotes of suspected asymptomatic transmission is evidence that there is a widespread occurrence which is clearly retarded

Don't you think patient Z who was asymptomatic in the viral load case study should have been included in the tables of data (Z was excluded)? Because the viral loads that are claimed to be similar to symptomatic patients are not listed, unless they can be found somewhere I can't see, and even if there is a single incidence of a asymptomatic patient with high viral loads that doesn't prove SARS-CoV-2 was the isolated factor as coinfection or secondary infection is common and it could have been a false positive for SARS-CoV-2, which is why of course all the language of the case studies you have linked do not explicitly claim they are proof of asymptomatic transmission and you cannot provide empirical expirimental data that does prove corona viruses can be transmitted asymptomatically because there isn't any

 

[Ruprecht]

Nope, actually you're claiming a case study where two single anecdotes of suspected asymptomatic transmission is evidence that there is a widespread occurrence which is clearly retarded

Don't you think patient Z who was asymptomatic in the viral load case study should have been included in the tables of data (Z was excluded)? Because the viral loads that are claimed to be similar to symptomatic patients are not listed, unless they can be found somewhere I can't see, and even if there is a single incidence of a asymptomatic patient with high viral loads that doesn't prove SARS-CoV-2 was the isolated factor as coinfection or secondary infection is common and it could have been a false positive for SARS-CoV-2, which is why of course all the language of the case studies you have linked do not explicitly claim they are proof of asymptomatic transmission and you cannot provide empirical expirimental data that does prove corona viruses can be transmitted asymptomatically because there isn't any

He's not in the table because the table shows viral loads against time after onset of symptoms. He never had symptoms.
You're just bullshitting.

A case study can involve a single case, technically these are classed as "presymptomatic" transmission by the WHO, as the individuals developed symptoms later. Same deal though in terms of transmission and contact tracing despite a lack of symptoms (ie not limiting tracing to contacts after symptoms developed). There's no shortage of such cases.

 

[ocean size]

Contact tracing had some positive effects over there, but it would not do much at all here at this point. It's a different situation, different geography, and different population. It wouldn't work.

Another day, another sherdogger that gained a PhD in epidemiology over the past 6 weeks.

 

[ocean size]

You'd also need a team of at least half a million for the job.

If only there was some precedent for the government doing that kind of short-term one-off massive hiring of 500k people for a once-in-a-decade event. Like, if only we knew it was possible because it happens for the purposes of taking demographic information.

By the way, don't forget to participate in the census this year!

 

[THEfightsAREfixed]

He's not in the table because the table shows viral loads against time after onset of symptoms. He never had symptoms.
You're just bullshitting.

A case study can involve a single case, technically these are classed as "presymptomatic" transmission by the WHO, as the individuals developed symptoms later. Same deal though in terms of transmission and contact tracing despite a lack of symptoms (ie not limiting tracing to contacts after symptoms developed). There's no shortage of such cases.

"Such transmission modes have not been definitively documented for COVID-19, "

yeah you still haven't provided direct evidence of asymptomatic transmission and your source with no shortage of cases also doesn't even have one actual such case, so you have still failed to provide this evidence (because that would be impossible)

 

[Ruprecht]

I think perhaps people are also massively overestimating the number of completely asymptomatic (ie they never develop any symptoms) infected from some of the numbers being bandied about here. Estimates so far have varied widely, but studies to date have indicated it most likely being a fraction of the total infected, rather than a multiple.

 

[Ruprecht]

"Such transmission modes have not been definitively documented for COVID-19, "

yeah you still haven't provided direct evidence of asymptomatic transmission and your source with no shortage of cases also doesn't even have one actual such case, so you have still failed to provide this evidence (because that would be impossible)

Hopeless. Quoting half a sentence because the second half counters your statements.

Early detection and isolation of symptomatic COVID-19 patients and tracing of close contacts is an important disease containment strategy; however, the existence of presymptomatic or asymptomatic transmission would present difficult challenges to contact tracing. Such transmission modes have not been definitively documented for COVID-19, although cases of presymptomatic and asymptomatic transmissions have been reported in China (1,2) and possibly occurred in a nursing facility in King County, Washington (3). Examination of serial intervals (i.e., the number of days between symptom onsets in a primary case and a secondary case) in China suggested that 12.6% of transmission was presymptomatic (2). COVID-19 cases in Singapore were reviewed to determine whether presymptomatic transmission occurred among COVID-19 clusters.

Clearly you've just chosen to be contrarian for no evidence based or logical reason.
They document 7 cases (involving 10 patients) where all the evidence points to presymptomatic transmission.

Cluster A. A woman aged 55 years (patient A1) and a man aged 56 years (patient A2) were tourists from Wuhan, China, who arrived in Singapore on January 19. They visited a local church the same day and had symptom onset on January 22 (patient A1) and January 24 (patient A2). Three other persons, a man aged 53 years (patient A3), a woman aged 39 years (patient A4), and a woman aged 52 years (patient A5) attended the same church that day and subsequently developed symptoms on January 23, January 30, and February 3, respectively. Patient A5 occupied the same seat in the church that patients A1 and A2 had occupied earlier that day (captured by closed-circuit camera) (5). Investigations of other attendees did not reveal any other symptomatic persons who attended the church that day.

Cluster B. A woman aged 54 years (patient B1) attended a dinner event on February 15 where she was exposed to a patient with confirmed COVID-19. On February 24, patient B1 and a woman aged 63 years (patient B2) attended the same singing class. Two days later (February 26), patient B1 developed symptoms; patient B2 developed symptoms on February 29.

Cluster C. A woman aged 53 years (patient C1) was exposed to a patient with confirmed COVID-19 on February 26 and likely passed the infection to her husband, aged 59 years (patient C2) during her presymptomatic period; both patients developed symptoms on March 5.

Cluster D. A man aged 37 years (patient D1) traveled to the Philippines during February 23–March 2, where he was in contact with a patient with pneumonia who later died. Patient D1 likely transmitted the infection to his wife (patient D2), aged 35 years, during his presymptomatic period. Both patients developed symptoms on March 8.

Cluster E. A man aged 32 years (patient E1) traveled to Japan during February 29–March 8, where he was likely infected, and subsequently transmitted the infection to his housemate, a woman aged 27 years (patient E2), before he developed symptoms. Both developed symptoms on March 11.

Cluster F. A woman aged 58 years (patient F1) attended a singing class on February 27, where she was exposed to a patient with confirmed COVID-19. She attended a church service on March 1, where she likely infected a woman aged 26 years (patient F2) and a man aged 29 years (patient F3), both of whom sat one row behind her. Patient F1 developed symptoms on March 3, and patients F2 and F3 developed symptoms on March 3 and March 5, respectively.

Cluster G. A man aged 63 years (patient G1) traveled to Indonesia during March 3–7. He met a woman aged 36 years (patient G2) on March 8 and likely transmitted SARS-CoV-2 to her; he developed symptoms on March 9, and patient G2 developed symptoms on March 12.

Their conclusion was that an estimated 6.4% of confirmed cases in Singapore resulted from asymptomatic/presymptomatic transmission. Slightly down from an earlier estimate in China of around 12.6% (with 59 reported cases).
The implication being that contact tracing for confirmed cases should include a period at least 2-5 days prior to the onset of symptoms.

 

[THEfightsAREfixed]

Hopeless. Quoting half a sentence because the second half counters your statements.



Clearly you've just chosen to be contrarian for no evidence based or logical reason.
They document 7 cases (involving 10 patients) where all the evidence points to presymptomatic transmission.



Their conclusion was that an estimate 6.4% of confirmed cases in Singapore resulted from presymptomatic transmission. Slightly down from an earlier estimate in China of around 7.6%.

"Such transmission modes have not been definitively documented for COVID-19, although cases of presymptomatic and asymptomatic transmissions have been reported in China (1,2) and possibly occurred in a nursing facility in King County, Washington (3). Examination of serial intervals (i.e., the number of days between symptom onsets in a primary case and a secondary case) in China suggested that 12.6% of transmission was presymptomatic (2). COVID-19 cases in Singapore were reviewed to determine whether presymptomatic transmission occurred among COVID-19 clusters."

Cases being reported as suspected to presymptomatic transmission =\= imperical experimental evidence that presympomatic transmission of corona virus occurs and a description of the mechanism by which it does so

Which is why the sentence prefaces with such transmission have not been definitively documented, as they weren't with SARS-CoV(1), and then talks about the other things you have been posting about like these rare case studies where the method of transmission is unknown or there was a testing error from cross reactivity etc and they are presuming it could be asymptomatic transmission, but this is unproven theory as all your sources state

 

[Ruprecht]

"Such transmission modes have not been definitively documented for COVID-19, although cases of presymptomatic and asymptomatic transmissions have been reported in China (1,2) and possibly occurred in a nursing facility in King County, Washington (3). Examination of serial intervals (i.e., the number of days between symptom onsets in a primary case and a secondary case) in China suggested that 12.6% of transmission was presymptomatic (2). COVID-19 cases in Singapore were reviewed to determine whether presymptomatic transmission occurred among COVID-19 clusters."

Cases being reported as suspected to presymptomatic transmission =\= imperical experimental evidence that presympomatic transmission of corona virus occurs and a description of the mechanism by which it does so

Which is why the sentence prefaces with such transmission have not been definitively documented, as they weren't with SARS-CoV(1), and then talks about the other things you have been posting about like these rare case studies where the method of transmission is unknown or there was a testing error from cross reactivity etc and they are presuming it could be asymptomatic transmission, but this is unproven theory as all your sources state

Unknown mechanism is not the same as not happening. They speculate on the possibilities at the end.

Presymptomatic transmission might occur through generation of respiratory droplets or possibly through indirect transmission. Speech and other vocal activities such as singing have been shown to generate air particles, with the rate of emission corresponding to voice loudness (7). News outlets have reported that during a choir practice in Washington on March 10, presymptomatic transmission likely played a role in SARS-CoV-2 transmission to approximately 40 of 60 choir members.*

Environmental contamination with SARS-CoV-2 has been documented (8), and the possibility of indirect transmission through fomites by presymptomatic persons is also a concern. Objects might be contaminated directly by droplets or through contact with an infected person’s contaminated hands and transmitted through nonrigorous hygiene practices.

The possibility of presymptomatic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 increases the challenges of COVID-19 containment measures, which are predicated on early detection and isolation of symptomatic persons. The magnitude of this impact is dependent upon the extent and duration of transmissibility while a patient is presymptomatic, which, to date, have not been clearly established. In four clusters (A, B, F, and G), it was possible to determine that presymptomatic transmission exposure occurred 1–3 days before the source patient developed symptoms. Such transmission has also been observed in other respiratory viruses such as influenza. However, transmissibility by presymptomatic persons requires further study.

Obviously they can never completely rule out the possibility of there being other contact points or misreporting of symptoms.
However all the evidence suggests it is happening, currently at a rate in Singapore of at least around 6-7% of confirmed cases (obviously that varies a lot between areas, some estimates have been significantly higher) where they believe they know the vector of infection.

That is empirical evidence by the way.

 

[THEfightsAREfixed]

Unknown mechanism is not the same as not happening. They speculate on the possibilities at the end.

Cmon dude don't reduce yourself to semantics, I'm sure in the coming month or two we will get additional data that will provide some clarity, I'll acquiesce that there is a ~11% genetic difference between SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2, and SARS-CoV-2 appears to have some improved receptor interaction that allows for better cell entry and could be increasing infectivity of SARS-CoV-2, but I can't honestly go along with some crackpot presumed asymptomatic transmission with no evidence or similar viral loads while asymptomatic to symptomatic based on one single reported case

 

[Ruprecht]

Cmon dude don't reduce yourself to semantics, I'm sure in the coming month or two we will get additional data that will provide some clarity, I'll acquiesce that there is a ~11% genetic difference between SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2, and SARS-CoV-2 appears to have some improved receptor interaction that allows for better cell entry and could be increasing infectivity of SARS-CoV-2, but I can't honestly go along with some crackpot presumed asymptomatic transmission with no evidence or similar viral loads while asymptomatic to symptomatic based on one single reported case

Semantics? Pretty funny after your first post was arguing about which term to use.
You said there was no observed evidence. There's been plenty. Observed, documented and studied.
That is not a crackpot theory. There were no such reports with the 2003 SARS pandemic.
Something Singaporean infectious disease experts are all too familiar with.
This is not a single reported case. I've given you 9 individually documented cases already just in this thread. In fact the estimates have increased even since that Singaporean study was published (they are all available prepublished these days, given the time factor). Likely a product of the explosion of cases in Singapore among migrant workers.
This is not your 2003 SARS pandemic.

 

[THEfightsAREfixed]

Semantics? Pretty funny after your first post was arguing about which term to use.
You said there was no observed evidence. There's been plenty. Observed, documented and studied.
That is not a crackpot theory. There were no such reports with the 2003 SARS pandemic.
Something Singaporean infectious disease experts are all too familiar with.
This is not a single reported case. I've given you 9 individually documented cases already just in this thread. In fact the estimates have increased even since that Singaporean study was published (they are all available prepublished these days, given the time factor). Likely a product of the explosion of cases in Singapore among migrant workers.
This is not your 2003 SARS pandemic.

You continue to misrepresent an unknown transmission source, and presumption or possibility of asymptomatic transmission, as actual definitive documentation, seeing as how definitive documentation has not been provided yet as your own cited source states.

I'm not really sure where there's any contention here, you're flat out wrong and you have no support for your assertions, but feel free to continue spouting factually incorrect stuff to people if that's your kind of thing

 

[Ruprecht]

You continue to misrepresent an unknown transmission source, and presumption or possibility of asymptomatic transmission, as definitive documentation has not been provided yet as your own cited source states.

I'm not really sure where there's an contention here, you're flat out wrong and you have no support for your assertions, but feel free to continue spouting factually incorrect stuff to people if that's your kind of thing

They are no more an unknown transmission source than with any other non-laboratory case. In each documented case there are a primary and secondary case identified and points of contact, and the primary case was asymptomatic at the time of that contact. Hence, asymptomatic/presymptomatic transmission.

It's you that hasn't posted a single source to support your blather.

 

[Hadron90]

Its way too late in the infection stage for contact tracing now. SK used it to great effect early on, but its impossible for us now. However, I think antibody testing should be an important component of opening back up. People with antibodies don't need PPE at work, for example, and can work in close quarters with others.

 

[THEfightsAREfixed]

They are no more an unknown transmission source than with any other non-laboratory case. In each documented case there are a primary and secondary case identified and points of contact, and the primary case was asymptomatic at the time of that contact. Hence, asymptomatic/presymptomatic transmission.

It's you that hasn't posted a single source to support your blather.

Lol if you think that's a reasonable way to conclude asymptomatic transmission has occurred then ok

And I thought we were discussing this under the context of my original post in this thread where I outlined my position and cited and sourced all my points, go check that out and read all the studies and then maybe you can see where I'm coming from

 

[Dober4]

Its way too late in the infection stage for contact tracing now. SK used it to great effect early on, but its impossible for us now. However, I think antibody testing should be an important component of opening back up. People with antibodies don't need PPE at work, for example, and can work in close quarters with others.

I wish I could do an antibody test I’m pretty sure my family and I had it in early January. Had all the symptoms recovered for the most part after a few days with a lingering dry cough.

I think if they start doing massive antibody testing they will realize this lockdown was a massive overreaction

 

[Ruprecht]

Lol if you think that's a reasonable way to conclude asymptomatic transmission has occurred then ok

And I thought we were discussing this under the context of my original post in this thread where I outlined my position and cited and sourced all my points, go check that out and read all the studies and then maybe you can see where I'm coming from

Yes, there isn't really another possibility in a clinical setting.
I looked at your sources. None of them contradict that there is asymptomatic transmission. Just the opposite in fact with the one from February. It suggests it might be happening and needs further investigation.
The rest of it was just about the etymology of the terms.