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He must have known, he was dominating that fight positionally before he ended up gassing and getting finished. Therefore, I think that would show he knows something and approached the fight the right way. Unfortunately for him, he gassed and Bigfoot capitalized on it.
The way he fought caused him to gas, that's not smart. It's not like Bigfoot was the one pushing the pace, Overeem was in control of the pace and he fought like he thought his cardio was much better than it was.