International Brexit Discussion v9: The Last Extension

[Gl0kta]

what are you babbling about? when did i say the trade deal with the US would take 10 years? you stated remainers would sabotage their own country, im saying you are a moron, lets see if the UK is better off in the case of a no deal , when they have to go cap in hand to everyone outside the EU from a position of weakness, and major industries are akready closing down or leaving to open european offices . it aint me who has "flatulent of the mouth" numbnuts.

This post is incorrect.

The UK will also have to cap in hand to the EU from a position of weakness. Probably the most important deal to do after a no deal.

 

[Arkain2K]

you stated remainers would sabotage their own country, im saying you are a moron, lets see if the UK is better off in the case of a no deal , when they have to go cap in hand to everyone outside the EU from a position of weakness, and major industries are akready closing down or leaving to open european offices . it aint me who has "flatulent of the mouth" numbnuts.

Bitch please. The petty faction of the Remain camp (along with opportunistic power-hungry snakes like Corbyn) in Parliament ALREADY sabotaged the country when they made it clear again and again that they would turn down any deals presented to them while Theresa May was PM.

If they don't want any deals, then they are left with no deal, even if they hilariously voted against that as well.

If Boris really come through with No Deal, they wouldn't be able to point fingers at anyone else but themselves, and it'll be just another piece added to the pile of regrets and loathing.​

Op/Ed: Have Britain’s Remainers Blown Their Last Chance?
Parliament had various chances to leave the EU with a deal under Theresa May. With Boris Johnson now PM, it may regret the missed opportunities.
By Therese Raphael | August 11, 2019

Opponents of a no-deal Brexit in the U.K. parliament continue to insist they can stop Prime Minister Boris Johnson from taking Britain out of the European Union without a deal. There is “no parliamentary majority for no deal” gets repeated like a mantra.

Brexiters say: So what? Parliament voted overwhelmingly in 2017 to trigger Article 50, which set the Brexit countdown clock in motion. Now supporters of a no-deal exit claim both the clock and the constitution are on their side.

They have a point. A look at the options being offered to delay or stop the no-deal train shows why Johnson’s threat has much greater credibility than Theresa May’s ever did.

Parliament could pass a law requiring the government to seek an extension.

Back in April, the Labour MP Yvette Cooper sponsored a bill that placed a legal obligation on the government to, once Parliament approves, seek an extension of the Brexit deadline to avoid a no-deal exit. However, repeating that trick will be difficult, as Maddy Thimont Jack, a senior researcher at the Institute for Government, explains.

To pass that kind of law again (the Cooper Act no longer applies), those opposed to a no-deal Brexit would likely have to take over the “order paper,” which controls the parliamentary schedule, as they did earlier this year with the help of House Speaker John Bercow. Opponents of leaving without a deal will have to try to manufacture those opportunities, perhaps by amending an emergency debate motion. But it will be up to the speaker to decide whether to allow it. Even if such legislation were to pass the House of Commons, it could get held up in the House of Lords, where filibusters and other procedural obstacles could get in the way.

The bigger problem with this route is determining what comes afterward. EU leaders made clear that they would be willing to grant another extension, but that must be approved unanimously by the 27 other members and one or more (French President Emmanuel Macron, for example) could decide they want to attach conditions.

Parliament could pass a vote of no-confidence in the government.

This is the scenario everyone has been talking about, but it’s far from an automatic brake.

A no-confidence vote (which Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has signaled he’ll call when Parliament returns) can be held only after a motion is put forward, which means a vote would realistically be held only Sept. 4, the day after parliament returns. Given the law requires 25 working days before an election can be held, it would just be possible to fit in an election before exit day on Oct. 31.

Only what happens if Johnson refuses to go? If a no-confidence vote passes, the majority party would have 14 days to try to assemble a new government, which means he could simply declare a new election for the day after Brexit.

Some have advocated for a “national unity” government to be formed across party lines following a no-confidence vote. There are political obstacles there: Corbyn has ruled out any alternative government he doesn’t lead, and his leadership is a deal-breaker for the Liberal Democrats, who now have the ambition to at least replace Labour as the main opposition party if they can’t win an election. At any rate a national unity government in time to stop no-deal would still require the current prime minister to step down once he lost a confidence vote.

Even if a general election is somehow engineered to take place before Oct. 31, that is a roll of the dice at this point since a combination of the Brexit Party’s strength, Labour’s weakness, a resurgence of the Liberal Democrats and tactical voting could produce a hung parliament or other outcome that would delay the formation of a government and make it difficult to stop the clock.

Parliament could cancel the September recess.

Lawmakers return in early September but leave again shortly after that for the party conferences season – a period in which the parties hold their annual meetings and rally behind the leader. There has been talk of Parliament suspending that recess in order to give MPs more time to come up with an anti-no-deal plan. Of course, buying a little time isn’t much of a plan unless any of the other scenarios work.

Parliament could repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act.

This crucial bit of legislation, passed in 2011 to shore up the then-coalition government between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, makes it harder to trigger new elections, something that helped drag out May’s doomed prime ministership, and which is helping her successor now. By repealing that act, Parliament could get a snap election triggered merely with a vote of no confidence, though that would eliminate the chance of forming a national unity government. Lawmakers may instead seek to shrink the campaign period down from 25 days (already an eye-blink compared to American presidential campaigns) in the hopes of getting an election in before the Brexit deadline, but there is nothing certain about how this gambit would play out.

The courts could intervene.

Now we get deeper into the constitutional fog. Gina Miller, the campaigner whose court challenge gave Parliament a bigger role in the Brexit process, has said she would challenge any attempt by Johnson to stay in place after a vote of no confidence or to try to set the date of the next election after Oct. 31. Her argument would be that a government that has just lost the confidence of Parliament cannot bind the hand of its successors in such a definitive way on such a historically momentous issue. The government would presumably counter that leaving the EU won a referendum and is already on the statute books. Constitutional experts differ on who is right and how this would play out.

The Queen could step in.

This is the most unlikely of options from a monarch who remains strictly outside politics, apart from the occasional oblique appeal for “common sense.” Constitutional experts are divided on whether Queen Elizabeth II might force Johnson to resign if he lost a confidence vote but refused to leave. Labour Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell suggested last week his boss might demand it. Of course, it would be harder for her to remain neutral if it were clear that Parliament had an alternative government to put forward.

Parliament could revoke.

Many of those opposed to a no-deal Brexit are indeed committed Remainers who would happily cancel Brexit by revoking the decision to trigger Article 50. But many others – including Labour lawmakers from Leave-voting constituencies and many Conservatives who also pledged to follow through on the referendum result – are not. Revoking Article 50 would be electoral suicide for many of them. It’s hard to see anything short of a severe market reaction that would yield a majority for that option.

With a governing majority of one, an election fairly soon seems inevitable. If parliament somehow manages to block a no-deal Brexit or force another extension, Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party are still in the game and can divide the Conservative vote, forcing Johnson into an alliance it is trying to avoid. The Remain-leaning parties will either stay fragmented or, as they did recently in the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election, find a way to cooperate. Either way, the outcome is unpredictable. Johnson’s message (already being delivered relentlessly by ministers) will be that parliament thwarted the will of the people and so the only way to finish the job will be to give Johnson a governing majority.

If parliament is unable to stop the no-deal train, an election just after Brexit happens (but before the real pain of new trade frictions sets in) would enable Johnson to blame the EU for any havoc, claim he alone was able to deliver on the people’s wish and argue he should now be given a mandate to focus on crystallizing the promised opportunities of Brexit, including his big-spending pledges. Johnson will like his chances: The remain-supporting Liberal Democrats will be on the back foot since it's not clear what the party wants apart from staying in the EU, the Brexit Party will be left without a raison d’etre and Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party will share all the blame but none of the credit.

Will history later show that Remainers and those who wanted a deal blew their last chances to stop a no-deal Brexit while May was still in office? Lawmakers have a lot to think about during their summer recess.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...ven-paths-to-leaving-the-eu-without-an-accord

 

[curryjunkie]

This post is incorrect.

The UK will also have to cap in hand to the EU from a position of weakness. Probably the most important deal to do after a no deal.

That goes without saying, meanwhile the US will take every opportunity to turn the screw in their deal negotiations, reports of lower food standards and resistance to UK plans for a tax on tech Giants, added to political pressure to side with them on issues like Iran , the big fish hold all the cards, and as someone stated in the guardian Britain is finding it hard to realise it's just about to become a minnow.

 

[curryjunkie]

pound shop churchill gettin schooled as usual...

 

[curryjunkie]

Bitch please. The petty faction of the Remain camp (along with opportunistic power-hungry snakes like Corbyn) in Parliament ALREADY sabotaged the country when they made it clear again and again that they would turn down any deals presented to them while Theresa May was PM.

If they don't want any deals, then they are left with no deal, even if they hilariously voted against that as well.

If Boris really come through with No Deal, they wouldn't be able to point fingers at anyone else but themselves, and it'll be just another piece added to the pile of regrets and loathing.​

Op/Ed: Have Britain’s Remainers Blown Their Last Chance?
Parliament had various chances to leave the EU with a deal under Theresa May. With Boris Johnson now PM, it may regret the missed opportunities.
By Therese Raphael | August 11, 2019

Opponents of a no-deal Brexit in the U.K. parliament continue to insist they can stop Prime Minister Boris Johnson from taking Britain out of the European Union without a deal. There is “no parliamentary majority for no deal” gets repeated like a mantra.

Brexiters say: So what? Parliament voted overwhelmingly in 2017 to trigger Article 50, which set the Brexit countdown clock in motion. Now supporters of a no-deal exit claim both the clock and the constitution are on their side.

They have a point. A look at the options being offered to delay or stop the no-deal train shows why Johnson’s threat has much greater credibility than Theresa May’s ever did.

Parliament could pass a law requiring the government to seek an extension.



Parliament could pass a vote of no-confidence in the government.



Parliament could cancel the September recess.



Parliament could repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act.



The courts could intervene.



The Queen could step in.



Parliament could revoke.




With a governing majority of one, an election fairly soon seems inevitable. If parliament somehow manages to block a no-deal Brexit or force another extension, Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party are still in the game and can divide the Conservative vote, forcing Johnson into an alliance it is trying to avoid. The Remain-leaning parties will either stay fragmented or, as they did recently in the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election, find a way to cooperate. Either way, the outcome is unpredictable. Johnson’s message (already being delivered relentlessly by ministers) will be that parliament thwarted the will of the people and so the only way to finish the job will be to give Johnson a governing majority.

If parliament is unable to stop the no-deal train, an election just after Brexit happens (but before the real pain of new trade frictions sets in) would enable Johnson to blame the EU for any havoc, claim he alone was able to deliver on the people’s wish and argue he should now be given a mandate to focus on crystallizing the promised opportunities of Brexit, including his big-spending pledges. Johnson will like his chances: The remain-supporting Liberal Democrats will be on the back foot since it's not clear what the party wants apart from staying in the EU, the Brexit Party will be left without a raison d’etre and Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party will share all the blame but none of the credit.

Will history later show that Remainers and those who wanted a deal blew their last chances to stop a no-deal Brexit while May was still in office? Lawmakers have a lot to think about during their summer recess.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...ven-paths-to-leaving-the-eu-without-an-accord

you mean the clear majority....bitch please.....

 

[Arkain2K]

you mean the clear majority....bitch please.....

And having this kind of "clear majority" of dunces is something for you to be proud of?





If it really comes down to No Deal, you already know exactly how you got there, after so many chances wasted.

 

[Arkain2K]

 

[7437]

pound shop churchill gettin schooled as usual...

We can not give in to the thinkers!

 

[curryjunkie]

And having this kind of "clear majority" of dunces is something for you to be proud of?





If it really comes down to No Deal, you already know exactly how you got there, after so many chances wasted.

Shut the fuck up , you have no grasp of the issue, stick to copy pasting, it's all you can do

 

[deise69]

Will we buckle ? Not a fucking hope.

People seem to forget the Ireland (and Northern Ireland) also had a referendum 21 years ago, which was approved by 94.39% of voters (71.1% in NI). We even amended our constitution because of it, in the belief that the UK government would honour its side of that UN peace agreement. So when it comes to trust and asking if Britain is at it again, we just check this handy site http://arethebritsatitagain.com/

 

[Arkain2K]

Shut the fuck up , you have no grasp of the issue, stick to copy pasting, it's all you can do

Excellent rebuttle to this British dumpster fire of your own making. Just about on par with your esteemed members of Parliament.

No wonder why you're all still stuck in 2017 with your stupid in-fightings and pointless whining in v9, when the exasperated representatives from Brussels has already moved on since at least v4.

 

[curryjunkie]

Excellent rebuttle to this British dumpster fire of your own making. Just about on par with your esteemed members of Parliament.

No wonder why you're all still stuck in 2017 with your stupid in-fightings and pointless whining in v9, when the exasperated representatives from Brussels has already moved on since at least v4.

not my making numbnuts, i live in ireland, and political posturing by MPs doesnt affect the fact that brexit is damaging to the country, so once again you are completely wrong.

 

[Arkain2K]

Will we buckle ? Not a fucking hope.

People seem to forget the Ireland (and Northern Ireland) also had a referendum 21 years ago, which was approved by 94.39% of voters (71.1% in NI). We even amended our constitution because of it, in the belief that the UK government would honour its side of that UN peace agreement. So when it comes to trust and asking if Britain is at it again, we just check this handy site http://arethebritsatitagain.com/

Nor should you. Every country should look out for their own first and foremost.

On a related note, every country in the U.K should be treated with dignity, just like no State - no matter how small - can be overlooked in the U.S election, as Hillary found out the hard way.

People from the outside looking in have said this since v1 of this discussion: Referendum by popular vote when there are 4 separate countries with distinct cultures and different population size was dumb in the first place. The rules should have been set that the referendum must win the majority of voting blocks: England, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Wales. Yet popular votes was the terms that everyone agreed to before voting day, and there are no objection to the rules until the results were announced.

The English and Welsh wants to leave and drags everyone else with them, with Brexit terms completely different than what was promised by Boris & Co.? Let them leave. Then N.I can get started on the process of uniting with the Republic of Ireland and Scotland can prepare to go on its own way again, after shitting their bed last time with IndyRef.


Irish PM says hard Brexit would raise issue of Irish unification
By Conor Humphries

GLENTIES, Ireland (Reuters) - The question of the unification of Ireland and British-ruled Northern Ireland will inevitably arise if Britain leaves the European Union without a divorce deal on Oct. 31, Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said.

He also warned that a so-called hard Brexit could undermine Scotland's place in the United Kingdom.

His comments on Friday prompted a sharp rebuke from Northern Ireland's largest pro-British party, the Democratic Unionist Party, whose member of parliament Ian Paisley said the Irish government's language was "unhelpful and unnecessarily aggressive."

Asked at a politics forum if the Irish government intended to begin to publicly plan for a united Ireland, Varadkar said it did not at present as it would be seen as provocative by pro-British unionists in Northern Ireland.

"But in the event of a hard Brexit, those questions do arise," he said.

"If Britain takes Northern Ireland out of the European Union against the wishes of the majority of people in Northern Ireland – takes away their European citizenship and undermines the Good Friday Agreement - in doing so, those questions will arise, whether we like it or not," Varadkar said at the MacGill Summer School conference in the northwest of Ireland.

"We are going to have to be ready for that."

In the 2016 referendum, 56 percent in Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU.

Over 3,600 people died in three decades of violence between Irish nationalists seeking a united Ireland and the British security forces and pro-British "unionists".

The 1998 Good Friday Agreement, which ended the violence, foresees the holding of referendums on both sides of the border on uniting the island if London and Dublin see public support for that. The British government says it does not believe there is sufficient support now.

Varadkar also suggested voters in Scotland, where 62 percent voted to remain in the EU in the 2016 referendum, might make a new push for independence.

"Ironically one of the things that could really undermine the union - the United Kingdom union - is a hard Brexit, both for Northern Ireland and for Scotland. But that is a problem that they are going to have to face," Varadkar said.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1UL280

 

[DarkneT]

Average salary in construction soars to £46,000 as UK loses EU workers

Average wages in the construction industry have soared as the UK loses EU workers because of Brexit, according to a recruitment firm.

Recruiters Randstrad said average pay in a sector survey had increased to £45,900 a year in 2018, a £3,600 rise in just 12 months.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/aver...KnmfiaJxLmzwF_Of&_guc_consent_skip=1565718434

Oh the humanity. The people who do these kinds of jobs grew up on council estates and didn't even go to university. This is totally unacceptable and why we absolutely must continue to have mass scale immigration. Otherwise these peasants will have increased bargaining power in the jobs market allowing them to demand higher wages and better working condititions.

I hope you’re trolling with that statement because that’s such a cunt thing to say

 

[Arkain2K]

not my making numbnuts, i live in ireland, and political posturing by MPs doesnt affect the fact that brexit is damaging to the country, so once again you are completely wrong.

You're not even British?! Then why the fuck are you acting like an angry drunk when it's rightly pointed out that the utterly stupid and completely pointless in-fighting going on in Britain in the last 2 years is doing EVEN MORE damage to the country's future, when they STILL prefer to be at each other's throats 3 years later, rather than working together for the best deal after what's done is done?

If that's not self-sabotaging, then what the fuck do you call it??

 

[curryjunkie]

You're not even British? Then why the fuck are you acting like an angry drunk when it's rightly pointed out that the stupid and completely pointless in-fighting going on in Britain in the last 2 years is doing EVEN MORE damage to their country’s future, when they STILL prefer to be at each other's throats after the vote, rather than working together for the best deal after what's done is done?

who said i wasnt british numbnuts?, wrong again, did i stick up for the stupid and pointless infighting going on? no, so wrong again, i repeat, all you do is spam limks , and think it makes you qualified to say the remainers, you know, those guys who've been saying ever since this started that brexit was a shit idea built on bullshit and pound shop dreams of former colonial glory,were, and i quote "out to sabotage their own country" thats pretty much the inverse of whats been ongoing since the start. but hey, keep spamming those links....you do you....

 

[Arkain2K]

No wonder why you're all still stuck in 2017 with your stupid in-fightings and pointless whining in v9, when the exasperated representatives from Brussels has already moved on since at least v4.

who said i wasnt british numbnuts?, wrong again, did i stick up for the stupid and pointless infighting going on? no, so wrong again, i repeat, all you do is spam limks , and think it makes you qualified to say the remainers, you know, those guys who've been saying ever since this started that brexit was a shit idea built on bullshit and pound shop dreams of former colonial glory,were, and i quote "out to sabotage their own country" thats pretty much the inverse of whats been ongoing since the start. but hey, keep spamming those links....you do you....

Unfortunately for you, no amount of pointless whining about how I run my thread would undo the vote result 3 years ago that you disagree with either.

 

[curryjunkie]

Unfortunately for you, no amount of pointless whining about how I run my thread would undo the vote result 3 years ago that you disagree with either.

so instead of acknowledging youve been arse backwards during the whole of our exchange, you resort to, stop whining.............dick tuck noted....

 

[Arkain2K]

Pelosi: No chance of US-UK deal if Northern Ireland peace at risk
Julian Borger | Aug 14, 2019​

There is no chance of Congress approving a US-UK trade agreement if Brexit undermines the Good Friday peace agreement in Northern Ireland, the speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, has said.

Pelosi was restating the entrenched position of congressional Democrats and many Republicans in the wake of remarks made by Donald Trump’s national security adviser, John Bolton, during a visit to London this week.

Bolton had said that Britain and the US could sign interim, partial free trade deals, one sector at a time, which would go through the a fast track legislative process, to help the UK cope economically if there is a no-deal Brexit on 31 October.

In a statement on Wednesday, the House speaker, who commands a Democratic majority, warned that the Trump administration would not be able to sidestep congressional approval.

“Whatever form it takes, Brexit cannot be allowed to imperil the Good Friday agreement, including the seamless border between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland, especially now, as the first generation born into the hope of Good Friday 21 years ago comes into adulthood.” Pelosi said. “We cannot go back.”

Bolton said the sectoral deals, focusing on industries such as car manufacturing, could be negotiated quickly, and insisted they would receive overwhelming bipartisan support in Congress.

“The ultimate end result is a comprehensive trade agreement covering all trading goods and services,” he said after meeting Boris Johnson and senior British officials on Monday. “But to get to that you could do it sector by sector, and you can do it in a modular fashion. In other words, you can carve out some areas where it might be possible to reach a bilateral agreement very quickly, very straightforwardly.”

Political observers however said it would be very hard to get piecemeal deals through Congress, partly because of the staunch opposition of agricultural and other sectoral lobbies concerned that their interests are being sidelined if they are not included in a broader agreement.

For that reason, trade deals, if they are passed at all, often take years to get through Congress. The existence of a powerful bipartisan Irish American voting bloc, adamant that it will not be complicit in any arrangement that undermines the 1998 Good Friday accord, is almost certain to complicate US-UK trade negotiations still further.

https://amp.theguardian.com/politic...deal-if-northern-ireland-peace-at-risk-pelosi

 

[Arkain2K]

so instead of acknowledging youve been arse backwards during the whole of our exchange, you resort to, stop whining.............dick tuck noted....

Either sober up, or learn to improve your reading-comprehension level.

Brexit is happening. The world don't particularly care about which camp you belonged to. You all need to stop this self-sabotaging bullshit now and WORK TOGETHER, or else you gonna be screwed by everyone else, after you're done screwing yourselves.

The good news is, we don't actually have to see your useless drunken rambling anymore, thanks to the forum's block list.