International Brexit Discussion v9: The Last Extension

[Billy no mates]

The one good thing about Boris is that he's bold and crazy enough to take a decision. May was reluctant to commit to anything without certainty and dragged it on till she couldn't.
Now we'll at least be going somewhere instead of the standstill of the last 3+ years. We can finally put this disastrous chapter behind and look forward to the next thing instead of being stuck in the perpetual Brexit circus.

Yes we can look forward to fresh disasters and a brand new circus , hurrah ! .

 

[JDragon]

We'll block trade deal if Brexit imperils open Irish border, say US politicians
Johnson-Trump plan could fall foul of Congress if Good Friday agreement is threatened

Julian Borger in Washington

Wed 31 Jul 2019

Any future US-UK trade deal would almost certainly be blocked by the US Congress if Brexit affects the Irish border and jeopardises peace in Northern Ireland, congressional leaders and diplomats have warned.

Boris Johnson has presented a trade deal with the US as a way of offsetting the economic costs of leaving the EU, and Donald Trump promised the two countries could strike “a very substantial trade agreement” that would increase trade “four or five times”.

Trump, however, would not be able to push an agreement through a hostile Congress, where there would be strong bipartisan opposition to any UK trade deal in the event of a threat to the 1998 Good Friday agreement, and to the open border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.

The comments came as Johnson was in Northern Ireland in an effort to revive power-sharing talks between his allies in the Democratic Unionist party and Sinn Féin, as well as discuss Brexit preparations.

Johnson’s rise to power, and his demand for the EU to drop the backstop, which is intended to safeguard the open border after Brexit, has galvanised determination in Congress to make a stand in defence of the landmark accord, to which the US is guarantor.

“The American dimension to the Good Friday agreement is indispensable,” said Richard Neal, who is co-chair of the 54-strong Friends of Ireland caucus in Congress, and also chairs the powerful House ways and means committee, with the power to hold up a trade deal indefinitely.

“We oversee all trade agreements as part of our tax jurisdiction,” Neal, a Democratic congressman from Massachusetts, said in a phone interview. He pointed out that such a complex trade deal could take four or five years, even without the Northern Ireland issue.

“I would have little enthusiasm for entertaining a bilateral trade agreement with the UK, if they were to jeopardise the agreement.”

Pete King, the Republican co-chair of the Friends of Ireland group, said the threat to abandon the backstop and endanger the open border was a “needless provocation”, adding that his party would have no compunction about defying Trump over the issue.

“I would think anyone who has a strong belief in Northern Ireland and the Good Friday agreement the open border would certainly be willing to go against the president,” King said.

In the event of a hard Brexit, in the absence of guarantees for the Northern Ireland agreement, the strength of sentiment among Irish Americans – a tenth of the population, many of them in swing states – could make it an issue in next year’s presidential and congressional elections.

Johnson has refused to meet EU leadersuntil the backstop is scrapped. On Tuesday, Ireland’s taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, told Johnson the backstop could not be removed from the UK withdrawal agreement.

After a contentious phone call between the two leaders, a spokesman for Varadkar said that alternatives to the backstop, as a means of guaranteeing the Northern Irish peace agreement “have yet to be identified and demonstrated”.

For the past eight months, Congress has held up ratification of a new trade agreement with Mexico and Canada, the USMCA, which Trump has presented as an extraordinary achievement (though it differs little from its predecessor, Nafta). Representative King said a UK trade deal would face even greater obstacles.

“First of all trade deals are always difficult,” the New York Republican said in a telephone interview. “There’s any number of other labour and environmental issues that get brought up. But to have a solid block on one particular issue would make it very, very difficult to get it through Congress, unless the border issue is resolved.”

The Democratic speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, has said that a US-UK trade deal has “no chance whatsoever” of passing in Congress. Over the weekend, a committee of former members of Congress and foreign policy officials said “all of Irish America will support the Speaker right down the line”.

The adhoc committee to protect the Good Friday agreement, established earlier this year, wrote to the UK’s new secretary for Northern Ireland, Julian Smith, on Sunday to raise its concerns about Johnson’s statements about abandoning the backstop.

A European diplomat in Washington predicted the Irish American caucus would be decisive in holding up an agreement. “I think there is enough meat in the Irish-American lobby to stop a UK trade deal if the Good Friday Agreement is affected,” the diplomat said.

The Irish embassy has been energetically lobbying in defence of the 1998 peace agreement. The ambassador, Daniel Mulhall, said he has been pushing at an open door.

“There is a genuine groundswell of opinion within Irish America in favour of the Good Friday agreement and against anything that would be perceived to undermine that agreement,” Mulhall said.

“Wherever I go, wherever I speak to Irish-American audiences, the first question is always to do with Brexit,” the ambassador added. “And they always reflect a deep concern about Brexit.”

“Politically we have a good caucus here. It’s active … They see the Good Friday agreement and all that’s flowed from it as an achievement for Irish America .. and they’re loathe to see that jeopardised in the Brexit context.”

Amanda Sloat, a former state department official and now a Brexit expert at the Brookings Institution in Washington, said: “Trade deals are always challenging to ratify in Congress … There will be significant resistance, as Speaker Pelosi has said, to ratifying a trade agreement that is seen to harm the Good Friday agreement or the interests of people in Northern Ireland.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-well-block-uk-trade-deal-us-politicians-warn

 

[Jonny Ninja]

No he wont hes just promising shit he knows he cant deliver all while trting to force the worst parts of the brexit mistake possible on the masses who no longer want it

What promises has he made?

What makes you think that people that voted brexit have changed their minds? because leave leaning politicians say so lol. Or are you speculating?

I don't know anyone that has changed their minds. Most are pissed off that our elected politicians have been unable to deliver the result of a referendum that was forced on the public. And now they want a further referendum which will cause even more division.

 

[Jonny Ninja]

If the will of the people was a no-deal Brexit a second referendum would still vote Brexit.

The fact is that roughly 25% voted for Brexit and out of that 25% most believed there would be no hard Brexit.

You guys know that a second referendum wont pass because Brexit is not in fact, "the will of the people".

Lol

 

[Jonny Ninja]

So now that the UK has their own version of Trump, can British posters shut up about American politics for a while?

Johnson is absolutely fck all like trump. He has fairly liberal views (his policies are probably more aligned with your democrats), isn't outwardly racists and is educated. Just because they get on, and the media so they,re the similar, doesn't mean they are in any way alike. In many ways they couldn't be more different.

 

[whougonnacall]

What promises has he made?

What makes you think that people that voted brexit have changed their minds? because leave leaning politicians say so lol. Or are you speculating?

I don't know anyone that has changed their minds. Most are pissed off that our elected politicians have been unable to deliver the result of a referendum that was forced on the public. And now they want a further referendum which will cause even more division.

Pretty much every poll worth a shit has remain with a clear majority now , the dum-dums who where tricked by the rich into voting brexit with promises of a magic utopia have clearly got buyers remorse

 

[Gl0kta]

Pretty much every poll worth a shit has remain with a clear majority now , the dum-dums who where tricked by the rich into voting brexit with promises of a magic utopia have clearly got buyers remorse

You could question a majority over a deal exit, but no deal? No way that's getting a majority.

 

[whougonnacall]

You could question a majority over a deal exit, but no deal? No way that's getting a majority.

Yep i think it curently only needs one tory dissenter to not pass and they have already voted on rejecting a no deal option

 

[Arkain2K]

What promises has he made?

We're now on v9 and you still don't know what was promised? Even after the reminder of those promises was posted in the previous page? How are you gonna have a proper debate with other people then?

Forget all the small shrimps, I would be impressed if Boris can bring back that Single Market cake that he promised you can still have after eating it.

Then again, it appears that the current strategy now from the British politicians is to completely ignore all the grand promises previously made to British voters about what Brexit will be (i.e we can cherry-pick all the good stuff about the E.U and keep none of the inconvenient stuff), and simply switched gear to "We MUST deliver Brexit, even if it's completely different than that was promised to the voters, No Deal if needs be, because the people demanded it".

Would that be a fair observation?

 

[KeepItRealist]

All fear mongering. Six months after hard Brexit and nothing changes, everyone will wonder why they ever waited.

 

[whougonnacall]

All fear mongering. Six months after hard Brexit and nothing changes, everyone will wonder why they ever waited.

If 'nothing changes 'then why bother doing it at all ?

 

[KeepItRealist]

If 'nothing changes 'then why bother

I'm taking about the Project Fear literature that talked about 800,000 jobs would be lost on a vote for Brexit, the opposite happened. UK economy has gotten better since Brexit vote, would be better and will be better when the UK leaves and the uncertainty is gone.

3-6 months after a WTO Brexit, no one will ever understand why the UK remained in the EU and surrendered control of it's borders and laws.

 

[Teen Wolf]

No-deal Brexit must include Irish reunification vote, Boris Johnson told

https://metro.co.uk/2019/07/31/no-d...unification-vote-boris-johnson-told-10496438/

 

[Renard]

If the will of the people was a no-deal Brexit a second referendum would still vote Brexit.

The fact is that roughly 25% voted for Brexit and out of that 25% most believed there would be no hard Brexit.

You guys know that a second referendum wont pass because Brexit is not in fact, "the will of the people".

Let's say a group of hikers see a huge mountain during a trek. They discuss whether they want to try climbing it, a couple of members are nonplussed about it but most are excited. The climb is very difficult but eventually they reach the top, see the view and it was all worth it.
What you essentially want to do is have a second referendum 2/3 on your way up the mountain - in the steepest, most arduous slope in the climb. The climbers are tired, their feet hurt, and they haven't seen the view yet.
Of course the less enthusiastic climbers are going to be like "Fuck it, this climb is too hard, I want to go down!" It's hardly a neutral situation anymore.

 

[Teen Wolf]

If 'nothing changes 'then why bother doing it at all ?

Ignore keepitracist he hasn’t got a fucking clue. He didn’t even understand the Irish border problem.

https://forums.sherdog.com/posts/150855907/

 

[whougonnacall]

I'm taking about the Project Fear literature that talked about 800,000 jobs would be lost on a vote for Brexit, the opposite happened. UK economy has gotten better since Brexit vote, would be better and will be better when the UK leaves and the uncertainty is gone.

3-6 months after a WTO Brexit, no one will ever understand why the UK remained in the EU and surrendered control of it's borders and laws.

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...t-80bn-since-vote-bank-of-england-rate-setter

Those kind of losses are 'gotten better' ? Yeah cause there will 0 uncertainty hammering out hew deals etc cause thatl be straightforward and quick just like brexit was


And yeah surrendering control to the wto is soo much better , those guys have everyones best interests at heart and are a 100% democracticaly accountable loveable bunch no doubt

 

[Happy Man]

Pretty much every poll worth a shit has remain with a clear majority now , the dum-dums who where tricked by the rich into voting brexit with promises of a magic utopia have clearly got buyers remorse

The rich wanted to remain. The rich are the globalists.

Nationalists and the working class voted to save Britain over the objections from the House of Lords

 

[whougonnacall]

Let's say a group of hikers see a huge mountain during a trek. They discuss whether they want to try climbing it, a couple of members are nonplussed about it but most are excited. The climb is very difficult but eventually they reach the top, see the view and it was all worth it.
What you essentially want to do is have a second referendum 2/3 on your way up the mountain - in the steepest, most arduous slope in the climb. The climbers are tired, their feet hurt, and they haven't seen the view yet.
Of course the less enthusiastic climbers are going to be like "Fuck it, this climb is too hard, I want to go down!" It's hardly a neutral situation anymore.

That only sorta works if we say half the climbers didnt want to go and half did
The half that do were told itd be easy and at the top of the mountain there are no rapists
Now halfway up they all see through binoculars feral bands of hillbillies raping other climbers to the soundtrack of deliverance ....squeal piggy squeal
Half the ones who voted yes now change their minds , the smart ones who read the yelp reviews about rape mountain and paid attention to its name etc exclaim 'we fucking told your dumb asses' ....but a small remaining % still want to go on! ( few dumbasses in every horror flick)
They wont admit their mistake or insist 'wel fight em off ' or are just so old and/or dumb they dont understand whats happening and never really did so wanna plod on

 

[whougonnacall]

The rich wanted to remain. The rich are the globalists.

Nationalists and the working class voted to save Britain over the objections from the House of Lords

The rich wanted brexit so they could carve the uk up worse than thatcher ever dreamed of and to duck incomming eu tax transparancy laws
The likes of mogg and crispen odey all helped promote it and are all set to make money off hedging against the uk after brexit


Old daily mail reading retired people and the non working chavs voted for it lets get real

 

[Deleted member 539235]

That only sorta works if we say half the climbers didnt want to go and half did
The half that do were told itd be easy and at the top of the mountain there are no rapists
Now halfway up they all see through binoculars feral bands of hillbillies raping other climbers to the soundtrack of deliverance ....squeal piggy squeal
Half the ones who voted yes now change their minds , the smart ones who read the yelp reviews about rape mountain and paid attention to its name etc exclaim 'we fucking told your dumb asses' ....but a small remaining % still want to go on! ( few dumbasses in every horror flick)
They wont admit their mistake or insist 'wel fight em off ' or are just so old and/or dumb they dont understand whats happening and never really did so wanna plod on