Bookmakers tip Khabib to lose to either Tony or Conor

[Lovelyboy]

You use casual as an insult. I think it's much worse for a fan to not be a casual and STILL know nothing about fighting. If I'm a casual, how come I know so much more than you? How come I'm quoting multiple sources for both odda dn fight stats, and speaking to each fighter's fighting skills? How come you've contributed nothing to the thread, despite your assumed expertise?

What the fuck are you talking about

Im referring to the odds makers

 

[johncola]

I realise this is a troll thread, but it made me think about how stats can paint a very flawed picture.

Khabib vs Conor is a very classic grappler vs striker matchup imo. Conor wants to keep it standing, preferably at range, while Khabib wants to close the distance, preferably securing the takedown.

Where does a successful takedown attempt from Khabib leave the fight? Typically where we saw the fight take place in round two - Conor in his back, Khabib with a relelntless ground and pound.

Where does a failed takedown attempt from Khabib leave the fight? Most typically, in some sort of clinch, scramble, or neutral grappling position. Now that might not be as advantageous as him getting into full mount for example, but it still puts Khabib in a very, very strong position given the skill gap in all things grappling or ground related.

So in effect, a failed takedown from Khabib still results in Khabib moving the fights towards where he wants it to go. A very good example of this is in round 1 when a (still fresh) Conor stuffs a takedown and then a minute later has Khabib on top of him with his back against the cage.

I appreciate the genuine response. I admit I worded the OP in a way to make the stats tell a story that's unfavorable to Khabib. Because I spoke 100% factually, while still riling up the fake, Conor-hating contingent. In all honesty, I do favor Conor in a rematch, but it's a tough fight either way.

 

[j18lee]

What are you people arguing with the TS about?

Do you believe an unlikely statement from someone when there are not even screenshots or links at the very least?

Without looking up the odds, anyone with a brain would know that after Conor’s first loss to Khabib as an underdog means he will be underdog again.

And undefeated Khabib who has looked invincible facing Tony who has losses will of course at least be a small underdog.

Jeez and the link that TS provided himself shows Khabib as a favorite at -225

Edit: and also Khabib as an even larger favorite at -345 against Conor in a hypothetical rematch.

Edit 2: I’d have to calculate but if you parlay -225 with -345, I think that still makes Khabib a favorite to win both.

 

[BooBoyMan]

Firstly, as you've pointed out, Conor did better than average, while winning most rounds.

i mean sure, he did better than average by 5% lol, but again, we can't forget the cheating now can we?

Secondly, Khabib's stats are swayed by his lack of success against Gleison Tibau (0 of 13). Against other opponents he did much better.

why would i disregard khabib's lack of success against tibau? to fit your narrative?

and no, against other opponents, he did not do 'much better'. khabib is not the same type of wrestler as GSP is, he doesn't care if he doesn't get the TD, he will push his opponent up against the cage and chain into something else, and this is reflected by his TD accuracy stat. so like i said... it doesn't really mean much that conor defended 4 TDs.

most people know he has decent TDD, it is his cardio, mediocre ground game, and heart that people doubt.

 

[johncola]

What the fuck are you talking about

Im referring to the odds makers

Fair enough, thought you were calling me a casual. But for what it's worth, the initial bookmaker lines, before the casual betting fans had their say, would STILL agree that Khabib is gonna lose to either Tony or Conor.

 

[johncola]

View attachment 716199 What are you people arguing with the TS about?

Do you believe an unlikely statement from someone when there are not even screenshots or links at the very least?

Without looking up the odds, anyone with a brain would know that after Conor’s first loss to Khabib as an underdog means he will be underdog again.

And undefeated Khabib who has looked invincible against Tony who has losses will of course at least be a small underdog.

Jeez and the link that TS provided himself shows Khabib as a favorite at -225

You've misunderstood the OP, as I expected someone to. I'm talking about the odds indicating that Khabib beating BOTH Tony and Conor is unlikely.

 

[GBJohn]

It ain't meaningless for a couple of reasons. Firstly, as you've pointed out, Conor did better than average, while winning most rounds. Secondly, Khabib's stats are swayed by his lack of success against Gleison Tibau (0 of 13). Against other opponents he did much better.

In what universe did McGregor “win most rounds” against Nurmagomedov? He won one, out of the three that were scored, and was beaten and then finished in the other?

 

[johncola]

i mean sure, he did better than average by 5% lol, but again, we can't forget the cheating now can we?



why would i disregard khabib's lack of success against tibau? to fit your narrative?

and no, against other opponents, he did not do 'much better'. khabib is not the same type of wrestler as GSP is, he doesn't care if he doesn't get the TD, he will push his opponent up against the cage and chain into something else, and this is reflected by his TD accuracy stat. so like i said... it doesn't really mean much that conor defended 4 TDs.

most people know he has decent TDD, it is his cardio, mediocre ground game, and heart that people doubt.

I agree with you on your assessment of Khabib's game. But my point about Tibau is that he was uncharacteristically unsuccessul in his takedown attempts, and thus they sway the stats in indicating his usual ability. Take them out, and you'll see that Conor did much better than average (Tibau-aside). Ultimately, he stopped most takedowns and won most rounds, in a fight he'll do much better in than next time.

 

[Khaiser]

I appreciate the genuine response. I admit I worded the OP in a way to make the stats tell a story that's unfavorable to Khabib. Because I spoke 100% factually, while still riling up the fake, Conor-hating contingent. In all honesty, I do favor Conor in a rematch, but it's a tough fight either way.

I favoured Conor in the original.

Coming from a boxing background, I couldn’t help but look at Khabib and ask “how the fuck is nobody landing on this guys chin”. He looks clumsy and awkward on his feet to me.

But for whatever reason, it works for him. Probably because of the near constant threat of a takedown.

I couldn’t rule out Conor if they fought again soon, but I would consider him a heavy underdog. He’s a front runner in my eyes who does well against guys who allow him to gain an ascendancy and wilts against guys who can tough it out and give it back to him. A bully type fighter if you like.

 

[j18lee]

You've misunderstood the OP, as I expected someone to. I'm talking about the odds indicating that Khabib beating BOTH Tony and Conor is unlikely.

Oh, my bad. You mean on the same night? I guess you’d be right.

you should probably have said, if he fought both

 

[johncola]

In what universe did McGregor “win most rounds” against Nurmagomedov? He won one, out of the three that were scored, and was beaten and then finished in the other?

If you score the first round properly, Conor won it. He clearly landed more offense. Khabib's control didn't get him in a position to land better offense. What it did do is tire Conor out, which won Khabib round 2. People shouldn't credit round 1 for Khabib's success in round 2.

 

[johncola]

Oh, my bad. You mean on the same night? I guess you’d be right.

you should probably have said, if he fought both

No, not the same night. There are odds for both potential individual matchups; Khabib v Tony and Khabib v Conor. Odds say Khabib loses one of 'em.

 

[GBJohn]

If you score the first round properly, Conor won it. He clearly landed more offense. Khabib's control didn't get him in a position to land better offense. What it did do is tire Conor out, which won Khabib round 2. People shouldn't credit round 1 for Khabib's success in round 2.

If you truly believe that, I guess we’re done here. Have a good one.

 

[johncola]

If you truly believe that, I guess we’re done here. Have a good one.

Par for the course

 

[in the liver]

despite Conor's injury and motivation problems.

 

[johncola]

oo an Asian girl. I stand corrected. How do I delete the post?

 

[j18lee]

No, not the same night. There are odds for both potential individual matchups; Khabib v Tony and Khabib v Conor. Odds say Khabib loses one of 'em.

I should stop but one last time to say you're wrong.
I did a parlay calculator and with -225 (vs Tony) and -345 (vs Conor), that still comes out to Khabib as a slight favorite (-115) to win against BOTH.

So you should at least show a link or screenshot that shows he loses to one of them if he fought both according to oddsmakers.

 

[ftpngo]

I am I the only person that thinks American odds are fucking stupid. -235 is $1.43 in decimal odds which makes so much more sense.

 

[Reydereyes]

Man these delusional nuthuggers grasping for straws... What in the world would make you think that the undefeated 28-0 grappler could lose to a 1-1 lightweight with average takedown defense and bad cardio who already got destroyed in their first fight. Shit makes no sense.

 

[j18lee]

I am I the only person that thinks American odds are fucking stupid. -235 is $1.43 in decimal odds which makes so much more sense.

I am an American and I completely agree with you but sadly, now I prefer American odds just as I prefer Imperial system over Metric purely because that’s what I have used for years and that’s what’s posted all around me.

When I first started betting, I was like, what the fuck, -570? -235??? I just want to bet $50, not $570, now I gotta get out a calculator. The decimal system is so much easier to calculate but now I just do the American odds math in my head automatically so it’s easier to me now.

Also, what the fuck is 7 and 5/16 inches but I visually know that length faster than I would know the metric equivalent.