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Fedor beating Werdum would not be an upset. Werdum might be the betting favorite, but it wouldn't be a huge upset. Certainly not the biggest in UFC HW history.
I get what you're saying but...
Werdum losing as the betting fave is definitely an upset. Fedor coming back 3 years later after losing 3 fights in a row in the last major org he fought in puts him as a solid +250 to +300 bet.