Beyond "it's MMA so everything can happen", how could Ilia beat Islam?

[Rubios]

Topuria has the most effective boxing in MMA.
And he sticks to the plan: cut the cage, hunt you, unleash a sharp and fast combo.

Point is: he is not a one punch KO artist. He's the best at setting up the perfect shot, ending a sequence, that the opponent can't see coming.
Most likely Ilia has outstanding power, but in fact the punches he's KOed people with were so unexpected and crisp (accuracy, kinetic chain torque...) that any pro 145er would've KOed Volk, Max and Herbert with them.

TL;DR He doesn't have the touch of death of Poatan or prime Conor i.e.

And his kicks are very bread&butter. Fast and strong enough, do their job, but that's it.

So. How does Ilia cut the cage vs a -mostly- Muay striker, that is a southpaw and has a reach advantage?

And then comes the wrestling/grappling, to which Islam could resort at will (or when in trouble).
Let's assume Ilia is, indeed, elite of the elite. Ok.
He is not the lifelong training partner of Khabib and the most gifted grappler @ Team Eagle.

And I've addressed that Ilia seems to possess freakish power. But what about his strength?
We know nothing about how his strength holds up at the very top of the elite.
Islam is strong as a bull.


I just don't see the path.

 

[Luthien]

Just another 145er that will be sent back down in tears

 

[RockyLockridge]

Via violent life changing KO

 

[Skarsgard]

Islam is very catch-able leaving the pocket. How many times have we seen him dropped or lit up in the exact same situations?

 

[Harlekin]

Topuria overthrows some of his hooks when he feels confident.
Those have a lot of power on them, but miss the most of course.
His late knockdowns/knockouts were punches his opponents didn't see coming combined with the usual speed and power though.

He is the better boxer and heavier kicker, but the smaller man with less reach.
Wrestling we will know when the fight starts.

 

[Only Here for Attachments]

Islam has been dropped by jabs. There's a good reason he, Ali, and Team Eagle are saying everything they can to avoid Ilia.

 

[moosaev]

Islam is very catch-able leaving the pocket. How many times have we seen him dropped or lit up in the exact same situations?

Not many time at all loool. “Very catchable” is quite a thing to say for one of the most defensively sound LWs in mma history. Topuria needs 3-4 punch combos in the pocket to set up his KO’s, I personally don’t see Islam giving him the time and space for that. Whenever Islam gets hit it’s usually by single shots then he gets out of dodge. I think Topuria would have to outpoint him. But you never know.

 

[moosaev]

Islam has been dropped by jabs. There's a good reason he, Ali, and Team Eagle are saying everything they can to avoid Ilia.

This is a low IQ comment from someone who clearly doesn’t know much about fighting. Jabs can not only drop people they can KO people in the right circumstances. An unexpected stiff jab when you’re walking into it is devastating.

 

[World eater]

When pressured, Islam can be caught. The question is, can Ilia pressure him enough to get the opening he needs? I’d say if anyone has a good chance, it is Ilia. But the size difference would be huge. If I were a betting man, Islam would be my choice.

 

[FriskyRandy]

Islam has already been caught by a significantly worse striker.

 

[nostradumbass]

I mean it's a puncher's chance. He's not going to outland Islam, not going to win the grappling, but he could land a big punch like he has against others. Islam isn't a relentless about his TDs the way Khabib was, so if he goes for one and someone stops it, he'll just abandon it and strike with them. Islam gives guys more chances and a lot more space than someone like Khabib did.

Islam is very catch-able leaving the pocket. How many times have we seen him dropped or lit up in the exact same situations?

0 times. Islam hasn't been dropped exiting the pocket a single time. The 2 knockdowns scored against him were both him moving forward. The one 10 years ago was him throwing his body into a punch from 6 feet away, and the other was Volk where Volk threw a punch exactly as he was dropping for a TD and hit his collar bone and stopped his momentum and made him have to reach for Volk's ankles instead of grabbing his waist like he planned to.

 

[Hymen Crusher]

He is going to cut the cage off and trap him then piece him up. I don't even think it's going to look that difficult

 

[Dimbis]

I think it would have to be when Islam kicks. Whether it be a body kick or head kick, if Islam expects Ilia to back up, like he expected Volk, Ilia’s hook and volume after may get the job done.

 

[Rubios]

He is the better boxer and heavier kicker, but the smaller man with less reach.

Uhm, I seriously doubt this bit.

 

[Kal-El]

Punchers chance. Islam wins then the narrative changes back to "he only beats smaller guys".

 

[burningspear]

khabib knows ilia starches him, hence the reticence

 

[jeff7b9]

I know... I know!!!


He could.... punch him in the face!!

Nailed it..



--------------------------------

Specifically, he could catch Islam in the temple with a left hook on the entrance, Islam tends to reach forward for the clinch/TD. He tucks his chin reasonably well behind his lead shoulder, but the temple, behind the ear or the top of the head could be clipped and that location tends to wobble the balance.

Ilia could time a right knee, right uppercut or straight right and catch Islam when he dips his head on entry.

He could catch a shot in the break out of the clinch. This is underutilized in MMA in general and anyone really could be caught here. Ilia being shorter in this particular matchup needs to be opportunistic and take advantage of times where they are in close.


I have noticed Islam drops his left hand when he kicks.
(A lot of fighters do this)
If Ilia slips left and throws an overhand right timed nearly ON the kick, that shot could be open and effective.

 

[Rapa]

Topuria has the most effective boxing in MMA.
And he sticks to the plan: cut the cage, hunt you, unleash a sharp and fast combo.

Point is: he is not a one punch KO artist. He's the best at setting up the perfect shot, ending a sequence, that the opponent can't see coming.
Most likely Ilia has outstanding power, but in fact the punches he's KOed people with were so unexpected and crisp (accuracy, kinetic chain torque...) that any pro 145er would've KOed Volk, Max and Herbert with them.

TL;DR He doesn't have the touch of death of Poatan or prime Conor i.e.

And his kicks are very bread&butter. Fast and strong enough, do their job, but that's it.

So. How does Ilia cut the cage vs a -mostly- Muay striker, that is a southpaw and has a reach advantage?

And then comes the wrestling/grappling, to which Islam could resort at will (or when in trouble).
Let's assume Ilia is, indeed, elite of the elite. Ok.
He is not the lifelong training partner of Khabib and the most gifted grappler @ Team Eagle.

And I've addressed that Ilia seems to possess freakish power. But what about his strength?
We know nothing about how his strength holds up at the very top of the elite.
Islam is strong as a bull.


I just don't see the path.

How ilia can beat islam? By being best wrestler islam has ever faced he will make fight standup and his grappling is so good he can hold his own against islam and if fight will be on feet islam gets knocked fuuuck out

 

[Rubios]

I know... I know!!!


He could.... punch him in the face!!

Nailed it..



--------------------------------

Specifically, he could catch Islam in the temple with a left hook on the entrance, Islam tends to reach forward for the clinch/TD. He tucks his chin reasonably well behind his lead shoulder, but the temple, behind the ear or the top of the head could be clipped and that location tends to wobble the balance.

Ilia could time a right knee, right uppercut or straight right and catch Islam when he dips his head on entry.

He could catch a shot in the break out of the clinch. This is underutilized in MMA in general and anyone really could be caught here. Ilia being shorter in this particular matchup needs to be opportunistic and take advantage of times where they are in close.


I have noticed Islam drops his left hand when he kicks.
(A lot of fighters do this)
If Ilia slips left and throws an overhand right timed nearly ON the kick, that shot could be open and effective.

Great breakdown.

 

[Young Calf Kick]

khabib knows ilia starches him, hence the reticence

cool fan faction