Betting on Lawler is INSANE VALUE

When i first looked at the odds i thought it was a 3 rounder and was for sure gonna bet house on lawler but after realizing its 5 rounds im not so sure anymore
 
I am not sure which one got worst during Diaz long break. We will find out soon. Until then, I feel like those odds are not so easy to take advantage of.
 
Drewlius said:
This is basically a shitpost. Zero actual fight analysis, and it’s coming from a guy who started watching MMA at UFC 130+.

Bet on Lawler if you think he is somehow going to get his power back and land a big shot, or if he’s going to get lucky and get a cut on Diaz that stops the fight.

Outside of a KO(Extremely unlikely, considering Diaz’s track record) or a TKO(cut); I don’t see many paths to victory for Lawler. Lawler has a history of sometimes trying to grind out a decision with his wrestling, but that will be extremely dangerous considering Nick’s BJJ.

Diaz is a far superior boxer, I don’t think that is debatable. He sometimes has issues eating legkicks, but that isn’t something Lawler is known for(If anything, Lawler is more known for eating legkicks than dishing them).

Money is coming in on Lawler today based on the line movement, so the public is favoring him as of this moment. I believe this is based on the weight-class and interview situation. That said, Diaz has always has these quirky moments, and anyone betting solely on them is making a big mistake.

Diaz has far more ways to win the fight, and as he is turning into an underdog, a bet on Diaz is looking like the best value.
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Lol show the slips. If you think Lawler is shot wtf is Diaz then? He’s way past it than Lawler.
 
thehighking said:
Ya but Lawler isn't fighting a top contender this time, he's fighting a Nick Diaz coming out of retirement and coming back from an alcohol problem. I'd be very surprised if Robbie loses this fight. Nick's prime was 17 years ago, Robbie's was like 5 years ago.
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I personally think if it goes past 2 rounds Lawler will lose.
 
Shoguns Prodigy** said:
Lol show the slips. If you think Lawler is shot wtf is Diaz then? He’s way past it than Lawler.
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Where is the proof of that? Lawler got dusted in all of his last fights and showed to be happy to just go through the motions.

We haven't seen Nick, so to say they are just as shot is just a wild assumption.
 
Nothing is a good bet at -110 bro.

Anyone arguing about who wins is missing the entire point of what betting odds even are. I am 90% certain Lawler wins. And I wouldn't touch this bet with a ten foot pole.
 
Gensoking said:
Wait, why was Werdum such a dog against Gus? What were the bookies thinking?
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Because Werdum popped for PEDs in a fight where he got finished by Volkov, came back after a lengthy suspension and looked bad vs Oleinik.

The idea was that Gustafsson would win by keeping the fight standing.
 
spaceman3005 said:
Lol at anyone betting on Lawler. You guys are the same geniuses that bet on Woodley to beat the little Paul brother.

Lawler is shot, he showed you that plenty of times in his last fights.

Basically what OP is saying that we should not believe our lying eyes when it comes to Lawler.

Go ahead, bet on him. Lol
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A Nick Diaz is in his prime, right? Hasn't fought in what, 6 years? Hasn't won in 10...

That's a big yikes


Dude also couldn't make 170 lbs, so last minute change to middleweight lol
Huge red flag
 
I would parlay Lawler with Volkanovski. Good odds on both of them.
 
Lawler is a -154 favorite…. Not a lot of money to be made period

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Kenny Powerth said:
Lawler is a -154 favorite…. Not a lot of money to be made period
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Honestly 90% of sherdog does not appear to understand what odds are judging by this thread lol. -150 is a definite sign to pass on placing a bet for anyone.
 
I would not bet on this fight. Robbie, while one of my all time favorites, has had an abysmal output and killer instinct in his past 5 fights. When he came back vs Askren looking like a billion dollars, I think that was the last bit of war left in him. And still not enough. I don't expect anything more than a quasi bob and viewing point fight from him. Which is exactly the kind of style Diaz bros have a problem with, so Lawler might snatch the decision, but if both of their outputs are low it could be too close for comfort.

In any case, I don't expect a finish. They're welcome to prove me wrong and I'd be ecstatic to see either go beast mode, but come on, guys. We've been through this so many times with lackluster results, you can't blame me for not being hyped.
 
BBMN said:
Nothing is a good bet at -110 bro.

Anyone arguing about who wins is missing the entire point of what betting odds even are. I am 90% certain Lawler wins. And I wouldn't touch this bet with a ten foot pole.
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You wouldn't touch betting odds of 4/6 with a ten foot pole in a scenario where you believe the true odds are 1/9?

That makes perfect sense. If I gave you odds of +110 on a coin toss would u take that?
 
I say we ban TS if he is wrong and give him platinum if he is right and continue the platinum until he is wrong when it comes to these lock type predictions.
 
BBMN said:
Honestly 90% of sherdog does not appear to understand what odds are judging by this thread lol. -150 is a definite sign to pass on placing a bet for anyone.
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No its not LOL. It appears you're the one that doesn't understand odds. Somebody doesn't have to be an underdog to be a good bet.

If something is 90% (1/9) likely to happen & you give me odds of 60% (4/6) then I'll bet on it.
 
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Gensoking said:
Wait, why was Werdum such a dog against Gus? What were the bookies thinking?
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Werdum generally has dog shit takedowns and Gus generally reasonably good, sometimes great, TDD. People thought Gus, if he properly showed up to HW as the mobile strong TDD LHW he used to be, would be able to just outstrike him from a distance.

I however looked at it as Gus looks like dogshit and adding weight isn't going to make him anymore mobile, as well as just got submitted by Anthony Smith. His one advantage was gone and Werdum definitely can submit him, plus despite his record Werdum isn't actually that shot, especially not in the grappling. Werdum to me seemed like a much clearer path to victory, let alone if his striking went back to what it used to be.

Despite that I wasn't confident in my bet, but wasn't surprised either when he tapped him like that.
 
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