Betting on Lawler is INSANE VALUE

Lol at anyone betting on Lawler. You guys are the same geniuses that bet on Woodley to beat the little Paul brother.

Lawler is shot, he showed you that plenty of times in his last fights.

Basically what OP is saying that we should not believe our lying eyes when it comes to Lawler.

Go ahead, bet on him. Lol

Errrmmm no I'm not the same person that bets on that circus attraction. What kind of made-up coping mechanism is this?

Yeah guys, Lawler cant beat title contenders anymore, so LOL at thinking he can win any fight anymore.
Lawler is "shot" compared to title contending fighters, yes. On the other hand, Diaz doesnt know what day of the week it is. Hope this helps.
 
This is basically a shitpost. Zero actual fight analysis, and it’s coming from a guy who started watching MMA at UFC 130+.

Bet on Lawler if you think he is somehow going to get his power back and land a big shot, or if he’s going to get lucky and get a cut on Diaz that stops the fight.

Outside of a KO(Extremely unlikely, considering Diaz’s track record) or a TKO(cut); I don’t see many paths to victory for Lawler. Lawler has a history of sometimes trying to grind out a decision with his wrestling, but that will be extremely dangerous considering Nick’s BJJ.

Diaz is a far superior boxer, I don’t think that is debatable. He sometimes has issues eating legkicks, but that isn’t something Lawler is known for(If anything, Lawler is more known for eating legkicks than dishing them).

Money is coming in on Lawler today based on the line movement, so the public is favoring him as of this moment. I believe this is based on the weight-class and interview situation. That said, Diaz has always has these quirky moments, and anyone betting solely on them is making a big mistake.

Diaz has far more ways to win the fight, and as he is turning into an underdog, a bet on Diaz is looking like the best value.
 
Lol at anyone betting on Lawler. You guys are the same geniuses that bet on Woodley to beat the little Paul brother.

Lawler is shot, he showed you that plenty of times in his last fights.

Basically what OP is saying that we should not believe our lying eyes when it comes to Lawler.

Go ahead, bet on him. Lol
Ya but Lawler isn't fighting a top contender this time, he's fighting a Nick Diaz coming out of retirement and coming back from an alcohol problem. I'd be very surprised if Robbie loses this fight. Nick's prime was 17 years ago, Robbie's was like 5 years ago.
 
You predicted Gustaffson to get finished for the 3rd time in a row in a weightclass he's never fought in after fighting once a year for the last 6 years?

You're an absolute badass
 
Wanted to avoid this because in my eyes it's basically two vegetables fighting each other, but after Nick's ESPN interview I'm getting a sense he really isn't arsed and this return was forced on him. In betting terms, Lawler is value. I expected him to be 1/2 favourite.
 
That was because Colby wore him out first with wrestling and Lawler was extremely hesitant to commit to punches because he knew Colby would take him down again. Neither will be the case vs Nick. I'm not saying Nick doesn't have a chance but the fight with Colby is not really relevant because the circumstances are so different.

I dunno Robbie looked like absolute shit standing afraid takedown or not lol he old now his main attribute was explosiveness
 
This is basically a shitpost. Zero actual fight analysis, and it’s coming from a guy who started watching MMA at UFC 130+.

Bet on Lawler if you think he is somehow going to get his power back and land a big shot, or if he’s going to get lucky and get a cut on Diaz that stops the fight.

Outside of a KO(Extremely unlikely, considering Diaz’s track record) or a TKO(cut); I don’t see many paths to victory for Lawler. Lawler has a history of sometimes trying to grind out a decision with his wrestling, but that will be extremely dangerous considering Nick’s BJJ.

Diaz is a far superior boxer, I don’t think that is debatable. He sometimes has issues eating legkicks, but that isn’t something Lawler is known for(If anything, Lawler is more known for eating legkicks than dishing them).

Money is coming in on Lawler today based on the line movement, so the public is favoring him as of this moment. I believe this is based on the weight-class and interview situation. That said, Diaz has always has these quirky moments, and anyone betting solely on them is making a big mistake.

Diaz has far more ways to win the fight, and as he is turning into an underdog, a bet on Diaz is looking like the best value.

Did you see the recent footage of Diaz? He looks out of shape and sluggish. That combined with the fact that he hasn’t looked good in a fight in a decade and hasn’t actually competed in 6 years gives me the impression that this isn’t going to end well for him.
 
It's not really the bookies, it's the gamblers who really set the line. The bookies set the initial line but it moves based on how people bet. Like with Floyd vs Conor it started out at a more reasonable odds of around 20 to 1 (though even that was a good bet on Floyd) but ended up at 4 to 1 which was absurd.

It's kinda both. Bookies set the line first, using their expert knowledge of how the fight should go AND adjusted with their expectation of how the public will favor unrealistically.

In the Werdum/Gustafsson fight, the line OPENED with Werdum +205, Gustafsson -240.
 
Lol at anyone betting on Lawler. You guys are the same geniuses that bet on Woodley to beat the little Paul brother.

Lawler is shot, he showed you that plenty of times in his last fights.

Basically what OP is saying that we should not believe our lying eyes when it comes to Lawler.

Go ahead, bet on him. Lol

I dont know whos going to win. Nick hasnt fought in years and lawler hasnt looked great. I hope nick is back though. Always a fan.
 
Anyone who would bet on this fight at this time is not someone's advice I would take. My advice: This fight is a pass.
 
This is basically a shitpost. Zero actual fight analysis, and it’s coming from a guy who started watching MMA at UFC 130+.

Bet on Lawler if you think he is somehow going to get his power back and land a big shot, or if he’s going to get lucky and get a cut on Diaz that stops the fight.

Outside of a KO(Extremely unlikely, considering Diaz’s track record) or a TKO(cut); I don’t see many paths to victory for Lawler. Lawler has a history of sometimes trying to grind out a decision with his wrestling, but that will be extremely dangerous considering Nick’s BJJ.

Diaz is a far superior boxer, I don’t think that is debatable. He sometimes has issues eating legkicks, but that isn’t something Lawler is known for(If anything, Lawler is more known for eating legkicks than dishing them).

Money is coming in on Lawler today based on the line movement, so the public is favoring him as of this moment. I believe this is based on the weight-class and interview situation. That said, Diaz has always has these quirky moments, and anyone betting solely on them is making a big mistake.

Diaz has far more ways to win the fight, and as he is turning into an underdog, a bet on Diaz is looking like the best value.

"Diaz has more ways to win the fight". Mate, it's not 2009. In any case, fights aren't fought on paper, so this type of analysis is often useless. With this kind of logic Khabib would lose every fight because he "only has 1 way to win".

MMA fans love to over-analyze fights like this to try and sound analytical. Dan Hardy does this all the time & gets every prediction wrong.

I've been following Diaz's career very closely for a decade & let me tell you this; the fight will very likely be a sloppy mess. And he'll lose.
 
As of Sep. 23rd I believe the safest bet is on the Over -150 as both fighters can take a bat to the head and still keep coming forward and Diaz being away from MMA for all these years and hasn’t finished anyone in over a decade Oct 2011
I can see a decision

Robbie -136 and Nick +116
Over 4.5 rounds -150
Under 4.5 rounds +130
 
The only thing that's gonna work for Nick in this fight is his ability to take punishment, because he will be taking a lot of it. If Robbie doesn't gas out smashing Nick, it's lock for Lawler.
 
Any Diaz bro vs top to half decent competition is easy money to bet against.
 
It's kinda both. Bookies set the line first, using their expert knowledge of how the fight should go AND adjusted with their expectation of how the public will favor unrealistically.

In the Werdum/Gustafsson fight, the line OPENED with Werdum +205, Gustafsson -240.
Werdum was on the last fight of his contract and free to get extra help for his performance. +205 is insane.
 
As of Sep. 23rd I believe the safest bet is on the Over -150 as both fighters can take a bat to the head and still keep coming forward and Diaz being away from MMA for all these years and hasn’t finished anyone in over a decade Oct 2011
I can see a decision

Robbie -136 and Nick +116
Over 4.5 rounds -150
Under 4.5 rounds +130

this is a 5 round fight???
 
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