BETS: UFC 317

[PuertoRican]

 

[PuertoRican]

As of Saturday, June 21, I currently have:

• Josh Van +100 $300 for $300
• Jack Hermansson +155 $200 for $310
• Hyder Amil +135 $200 for $270
• Beneil Dariush +130 $300 for $390

I do like Felipe Lima, but I don't want to pay -180 for his money line, and I also think/hope late money comes in on Payton Talbott. Similarly, I think Ilia Topuria wins, but I don't want to bet his -380 money line when I think he wins ITD at a very high clip, if he wins at all.

Kai Kara-France is interesting. He's the rightful underdog, but I think he can cause problems for Pantoja if he can avoid giving up his back.

I like Tracy Cortez by decision.

McKinney/Borshchev U1.5 rounds or doesn't start R3.

 

[B.Goetz]

Diniz (-275) + Van (-105) + Topuria (-425)
$12.94 @ +228 to win $29.62

$25 (bonus bet) Dariush-Moicano FGTD +114 to win $28.50

$5 (bonus bet) on KKF @ +200

$25 on KKF by KO/Dec +300 (boosted) to win $75

$25 (bonus bet) on Topuria by TKO EV to win $25

$50 (bonus bet) Topuria + u1.5 (+127) to win $63.93

$40 on Topuria + Topuria most total strikes EV to win $40

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Diniz (-275) + Van (-105) + Topuria (-425)
$12.94 @ +228 to win $29.62

Whats the point of posting these bets for pennies?

If only you had listened to the countless people who told you for months that laying massive chalk would result in going broke.

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

Whats the point of posting these bets for pennies?

If only you had listened to the countless people who told you for months that laying massive chalk would result in going broke.

Do you know what happened to him?

He used to bet large flat amounts like $800, now he bets random amounts like $6.73 to make random amounts like $9.54.

I'm worried that he might have taken salvia

 

[B.Goetz]

Whats the point of posting these bets for pennies?

If only you had listened to the countless people who told you for months that laying massive chalk would result in going broke.

Posted for fun.

I no longer have a large bankroll due to matters unrelated to MMA betting. "Massive chalk" is irrelevant. What matters is the actual odds vs. the implied odds, while prudently managing one's bankroll. That's literally all that matters.

For example, when Glover Texeira debuted in the UFC his line opened at -300 against Kyle Kingsbury. Only a fool would have shied away from that line simply because Glover was a significant favourite. Implied odds of winning: 75%. Estimated actual odds of winning: 98%. That's an enormous 23% edge on the book. Any bet with an edge on the book is worthwhile, sized appropriately to one's bankroll.

Without being rude, I come here for capping insights, not technical advice from people who have never taken a statistics course or read a book on the subject. There are people here who do this professionally and who are good enough cappers to reliably turn a profit, who have repeatedly indicated that they believe in the gambler's fallacy. When people have expressed concern based on the beliefs that you shared, I politely thank them for their interest and continue with what I know to be correct.

 

[guesswhoseback]

Posted for fun.

I no longer have a large bankroll due to matters unrelated to MMA betting. "Massive chalk" is irrelevant. What matters is the actual odds vs. the implied odds, while prudently managing one's bankroll. That's literally all that matters.

For example, when Glover Texeira debuted in the UFC his line opened at -300 against Kyle Kingsbury. Only a fool would have shied away from that line simply because Glover was a significant favourite. Implied odds of winning: 75%. Estimated actual odds of winning: 98%. That's an enormous 23% edge on the book. Any bet with an edge on the book is worthwhile, sized appropriately to one's bankroll.

Without being rude, I come here for capping insights, not technical advice from people who have never taken a statistics course or read a book on the subject. There are people here who do this professionally and who are good enough cappers to reliably turn a profit, who have repeatedly indicated that they believe in the gambler's fallacy. When people have expressed concern based on the beliefs that you shared, I politely thank them for their interest and continue with what I know to be correct.

Don't listen to these idiots man just because of those stupid ass comments u should make ur bets 24 cents to 1.18$ I hate Internet shit talkers no need to respond the sherdoggers 40 yr old virgins

 

[PuertoRican]

 

[BigSteve]

Smith RD1 KO 250 to win 240

McKinney/Slava U1.5 600 to win 325

Top 1/2/3 320 to win 230

 

[BigSteve]

Smith RD1 KO 250 to win 240

McKinney/Slava U1.5 600 to win 325

Top 1/2/3 320 to win 230

Added:

Lima 600
Kai 198

Top 1/2/3 250 to win 150
Main U3.5 Rounds 500 to win 131

Added LIVE:

Van 300 to win 150

-62 = Two horrid ML bets. +800 weekend.

 

[B.Goetz]

Diniz (-275) + Van (-105) + Topuria (-425)
$12.94 @ +228 to win $29.62

$25 (bonus bet) Dariush-Moicano FGTD +114 to win $28.50

$5 (bonus bet) on KKF @ +200

$25 on KKF by KO/Dec +300 (boosted) to win $75

$25 (bonus bet) on Topuria by TKO EV to win $25

$50 (bonus bet) Topuria + u1.5 (+127) to win $63.93

$40 on Topuria + Topuria most total strikes EV to win $40

Livebets:
Lima $7.58
Cortez by points -165 $16.50 to win $10

= $164.47

Solid night for me, thanks to Topuria.

 

[guesswhoseback]

I lost about a 1000 not a good event I actually profited in draftkings crazy first time I've ever seen a winning lineup that had 2 fighters fighting each other in royval and van

 

[Guld]

Borshchev by Stoppage 0.5u (+175): -0.5u
McKinney by Sub 0.5u (+275): +1u
Cortez ML 1.5u (-225): +0.5u
Amil ML 2u (+110): -2u
Hermansson ML 2u (+150): -2u
Robocop by KO 0.5u (+130): +0.5u
Talbott ML 2u (+140): +3u
(live)Talbott ML 1u (-118): +1u
Dariush ML 3u (+120): +3.5u
(live)Dariush ML 1.5u (-154): +1u
Van ML 3u (-110): +3u
(live)Van ML 1u (-143): +0.5u
Royvall by Dec 1u (+200): -1u
Pantoja 2u (-250): +0.75u
(live)KKF 0.75u (+375): -0.75u
Oliveira ML 1u (+350): -1u

Parlay:
Ilia ML + Pantoja ML + Diniz ML 1u: +1u
Ilia by Stoppage + Pantoja ML + Diniz ML 1u: +1.5u


Total: +12u

 

[mkess101]

I lost about a 1000 not a good event I actually profited in draftkings crazy first time I've ever seen a winning lineup that had 2 fighters fighting each other in royval and van

There have been a couple where the 5 round main event fighters were both in the optimal lineup. This is the first 3 rounder I can remember.

 

[mkess101]

Good but not great night for me...yet. I have 2 parlays alive that both need Khamzat in August. One also needs Garcia against Kattar. If both win, really big night for me. If only Khamzat wins, really good night. If both lose, minimal profit.