BETS: 2 interesting ones, and 1 "Lock"

Discussion in 'UFC Discussion' started by xMaxPower, Feb 9, 2016.

  1. xMaxPower

    xMaxPower Black Belt

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    I usually only look for underdogs when making bets. With that said, here it is:

    Vitor +285 over Jaracre
    IMO, Jaracre is most likely to win as he has more ways of winning as he can win by KO/Sub/Dec (Dec especially because its a 5 round fight). HOWEVER, Since this fight is in Brazil, I would keep track on what kind of shape Vitor is in, and as soon as I see that he's looking like a monster again, I am going to put some down on Vitor. If TRTor is back, he should be a +150 underdog, so the value is there.

    Shogun +200 over Rahsad
    2 fighters on the decline but I see this as a 50/50 fight. Shoguns takedown defense is pretty good and he has heavy leg kicks and Rashads striking has just looked... not that great. Value is with Shogun.

    Magny +120 over Lombard
    10 inch reach advantage, 10 year youth advantage, Lombard off roids and just on the decline in general. Magny will stay on the outside and pick Lombard apart. Not going to say its a lock, as I'm not the typical sherdogger, but I will say that I see Magny as a -400 underdog. Huge value here. I'm going to make the bet right now since I can't see it getting any better.

    [​IMG]

    None of these are being placed as my "Bold prediction" though. Magny isn't a big enough underdog for me to consider him a bold pick. The other two I'm not that confident in, but the value is there.

    Before some of you rich sherdoggers or sherdoggers who pretend to be rich say "ohhh you only bet $40, you're not confident in the bet" or something stupid, $40 is a lot to me (I'm a poor ass university student :D). $40 is the most I've ever bet on a single bet (tied with my Wonderboy and Nate bets). I plan to bet more on Magny if the odds get better.
     
    Last edited: Feb 9, 2016
  2. WalkenWouldOwn

    WalkenWouldOwn Steel Belt

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    Rashad has not looked good for years. As shot as Shogun looks at times, Rashad doesn't look any better.

    I have made money on Nog and Bader over Shad (though admittedly I also bet Phil Davis over him and Rashad looked better then ever in that fight) but IMO Rashad's striking has always been vastly overrated. The striking won't be close in this fight IMO, it just comes down to if Rashad will be able to get takedowns. It's possible but at those odds I'll take Shogun.
     
  3. xMaxPower

    xMaxPower Black Belt

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    Agreed. Takedowns for Rashad will be key for this fight, but I'm not sure if he'll even land any.
     
  4. muaytao

    muaytao Brown Belt

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    Bet on rounds if you can i think shogun vs evans ends in ud
     
  5. JohnyBrabo

    JohnyBrabo Mackin & Stackin Belt Platinum Member

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    Came in here to flambe TS for talking about a lock, but actually not bad lol. If you are to wager on Vitor I would sweeten it by going 1st round. Better odds and as the fight passes that mark his chance to win decreases dramatically.

    No faith in betting on Shad or Shogun, literal coin flip.

    Agree on Magny. Won't go that far but I fancy his chances against Roidbard.
     
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  6. BisexualMMA

    BisexualMMA Don't Put My Name in the Name of Steroids!

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    Those are pretty good underdog bets, especially Vitor.
     
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  7. xMaxPower

    xMaxPower Black Belt

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    haha, I don't blame you, I actually did that on purpose to get people in here :p I hate it when people call fights a lock.

    My thoughts exactly, Vitor 1st round KO would probably be an even better bet (depending on how much better the odds are).

    Agreed. Shad and Shogun is a coin flip, which is why betting on shogun at +200 is very good value.
     
    Last edited: Feb 9, 2016
  8. BisexualMMA

    BisexualMMA Don't Put My Name in the Name of Steroids!

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    Everyone saw the Sean Salmon head kick too many times in highlights.
     
  9. sidecheckkick

    sidecheckkick Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card

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    Good picks but not sure why people like Magny so much. He hasn't shown the ability to beat a fighter the caliber of Lombard yet imo not a good bet maybe if he was a huge underdog but I still just remember Neil Magny for getting KTFO by a featherweight on TUF.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Shogun should merk Rashad imo surprised he's the underdog here
     
    Last edited: Feb 9, 2016
  10. IloveTHIS

    IloveTHIS Silver Belt

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    Shogun is my favorite fighter of all time and having said that I think you guys are way underrating Rashad by saying its 50/50...

    Rashad is way past it and only fights once every four years or whatever, but Shogun has been shot for a good 5 years now.
     
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  11. xMaxPower

    xMaxPower Black Belt

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    Thats actually a good way to beat Magny. Clinch with him and make sure he cant use his reach advantage.

    But Magny has gotten way better and he has had 10 fights in 2 years (2014 & 2015). Thats insane! He's learned how to use his reach a little better also.
    He also beat Kelvin Gastelum who is just as stocky as Lombard and Gastelum is way more agressive that Lombard. If youthful Gastelum cant beat Magny then I give old steroidless lombard very little chance.
     
  12. sidecheckkick

    sidecheckkick Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card

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    Actually thought Gastelum won that fight but it was 5 rounds and this won't be. Still don't think Magny is a good bet maybe a lock against someone else but I've seen way too much Hector Lombard to ever pick against him. Don't be surprised if Magny gets KTFO again
     
    Last edited: Feb 9, 2016
  13. xMaxPower

    xMaxPower Black Belt

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    If Lombard wins, I agree that it'll by KO. He wont be "scoring points" for a decision with a 10 inch reach disadvantage.
     
  14. Talon81

    Talon81 Brown Belt

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    Yes, Vitor would most likely get it in the 1st round (if he gets it), but everyone knows that. Winning in sports betting is based on having more information or intuition than others. Since everyone already knows about Rd 1 Vitor, the odds for Vitor Rd 1 will be very close to the odds for Vitor winning at all. Same goes for betting Vitor by KO/TKO. If he pulls off a KO in Rd 2 like he did with Bisping you are gonna lose it all for that extra +20.

    Shad and Shogun being a literal coin flip is, in fact, exactly what makes it a good value. If someone is a 2 to 1 favorite on a coin flip matchup, bet on the underdog. You are telling me if someone flipped a coin you wouldnt put a shitload down on heads at +200? I would!!
     
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  15. JohnyBrabo

    JohnyBrabo Mackin & Stackin Belt Platinum Member

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    Yeah you're right on mostly. And btw I am pretty experienced as a sports bettor. I won on Diaz/MJ and also won a small bet on reem against JDS.

    I wasn't saying I wouldn't bet on it based on it being a coin flip. What I said was I have so little faith in both men, especially shogun, that I would more than likely steer clear altogether.

    Sports betting isn't just about the intuition and information you mentioned, it is also about value based on probability. Fights like RDA/Bendo, Werdum/Cain, and Holm/Rousey certainly come to mind.
     
  16. WalkenWouldOwn

    WalkenWouldOwn Steel Belt

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    Don't forget the Chuck KO lol

    But yes, this is true. In reality he tends to get out struck in most fights but either wins via wrestling or landing 1 big shot.
     
  17. Talon81

    Talon81 Brown Belt

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    I agree, but since the odds themselves are supposed to be based on probability, you are using information and/or intuition to determine that the probabilities are, in fact, different than what the bookies or other bettors think, which creates value. Kind of symantics (not sure of spelling). We are basically saying the same thing but using different words.

    I see what you are saying regarding Rashad/Shogun. If I felt like the odds were 50/50 I would bet on Shogun but it is hard to know what to expect from either of them at this point.

    Good bet on Reem btw. I would have bet on him at almost any other point in their careers and I probably would have lost, but the timing of this fight ended up being really good for Reem. I had lost faith in him so Im glad I didnt put money down.
     
    Last edited: Feb 9, 2016
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  18. RedLantern

    RedLantern Guest

    About Vitor, he looks kinda big in this video from 6 days ago, not TRTVitor but looks bigger than he was against Weidman

     
  19. Disquiet

    Disquiet Blue Belt

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    TRTor is never coming back
     
  20. xMaxPower

    xMaxPower Black Belt

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    Hard to tell when he has a shirt on. But I don't know, maybe you're right.
     

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