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Best UFC betting handicappers?

Discussion in 'UFC Discussion' started by surreyjack29, Dec 30, 2014.

  1. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    The witch hunt after Luca was pretty crazy, but honestly, he could have handled it better himself. I didn't follow closely, but it was blatantly obvious the issue. His overall betting record didn't accurately reflect his results for premium picks (picks that his subscribers pay for). So when analyzing if his paid service was worth it, he didn't really have the numbers for it. Someone did the numbers and it wasn't worth it because a lot of his "free picks" or picks that weren't part of the paid service were the ones doing well. The theory being that those have no bearing on what you pay for. His premium picks were essentially underperforming to be worth the price.

    All of that made sense, and he could have easily accepted it. He could have said something such as 2014 was rough on most bettors (true from what I've seen), and that he was going to watch his picks more closely. Basically something along the lines of his premium record would mirror his overall record more in 2015, maybe by not giving out as many "free picks" or make his "free picks" more risky or where he sees less value. Maybe say something such as a lot of his free picks were often the ones with most value as he didn't want to give out wrong picks. He'd need to restructure, etc. It was the first year, still learning process, etc.

    Instead, he went full denial mode and often never really addressed the issue. He basically called everyone haters and danced around the topic. It was a really bad look.
     
  2. MMATyc00n Orange Belt

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    Hey, sorry to dig up an old topic but I was googling MMA handicappers and this topic is bang on in terms of relevance and I feel I can add something of interest to people who posted in this thread at an earlier date (if they are tracking the topic).

    Basically I set up an MMA handicapper tracking site at BetMMA.tips. I was on cappertek as the top MMA handicapper but I got deleted after I exposed some sham accounts run by cappertek admin. I wrote a blog about the cappertek thing if you are interested. Pretty depressing really cos I was more than happy just predicting on there but I'm not interested in promoting a site where the owner's a sham, so it motivated me to set up my own site that would be run with integrity :)

    Anyway, regarding what people were talking about earlier. I worked out recently you basically need to have bet over $50,000 whilst tailing MMA Oddsbreaker just to break even on their picks. A subscription price that high is going to be EXTREMELY hard to justify. I wrote a blog about that too.

    As for Luca. I was aware of all that nastiness that happened in the past and thought the guy sounded like a douche after reading the audit of his picks. He ended up signing up for my site to track his picks and he's actually been thoroughly nice to deal with. That has nothing to do with how profitable he is but at least he's willing to independently track his picks, which is not something you can say about a lot people. You can see that as of now though, he's at 9% ROI which is OK. (Luca Fury's Profile). He's also been on the wrong end of a couple of bad beats so we'll see how he gets on longer term.

    In general, if you wanna work out whether handicapper subscription fees are worth it, I made a handicapper fee tool, which tells you what you need to be betting per unit, to break even.

    But yeah, back to whether it's worth paying for anyone's picks. You can get plenty of free picks that are probably as successful as the paid ones. I will occasionally still make picks and when I do they are free; same applies to lots of other users on our site. You can view all the free MMA betting tips - here. I still need to make it a bit more user friendly so you can see who's worth following, but you can click the link to view people's profiles at the moment and see their current profitability. It's all very new so most people are pretty raw but there are some established guys on there too with their own websites etc. Of course, everyone reading's welcome to sign up and try their hand at being a handicapper if they like. That's the concept of the site really - that there are probably people out there who can do a much better job of this than a lot of the paid handicapper sites, so all you guys have to do is log picks and I'm a verification service to make it clear you aren't making it up.

    So yeah, apologies again for resurrecting an old thread but given this could be a help to the OP and some of the other members, I thought I might as well :)


    Edit - this is my personal handicapper profile if you wanna read about my own bets :)
     
  3. DezWalker MMA Stats geek

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    On my site, I post "best bets" for every UFC, Bellator, WSOF and Invicta event. Starting doing it in May of 2014 and since then, I've got a 5% ROI. You're not going to get rich but in the long haul you win more than you lose.

    Look in the "best bets" category for past picks and results are easily obtainable. Picks are free, no registration required or anything, I just do it more to help myself than anything. I do a betting column for a bigger site and kind of use these picks as the basis for it.

    http://www.mmadraws.blogspot.ca/search/label/Best bets
     
  4. MMATyc00n Orange Belt

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    5%'s perfectly decent for free picks - good work :)

    p.s. are you familiar with Des Walker the former footballer? I've got his old "you'll never beat des walker" chant in my head now :D
     

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