Best UFC betting handicappers?

Discussion in 'UFC Discussion' started by surreyjack29, Dec 30, 2014.

  1. surreyjack29

    surreyjack29 Blue Belt

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    I was looking to bet on UFC 182 and was just wondering who you guys think are the best handicappers. I know furys fight picks popular on sherdog.

    I used parlaywolf.com free holiday picks for machida vs dollaway and both parlays won. Does anyone use there expert picks? Is it worth it too get there service its 99.99 a month?

    What about mmaoddsbreaker?

    Any information on this would be greatly appreciated. Thanx guys
     
  2. Roads55

    Roads55 Brown Belt

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    a lot of handicappers manipulate their statistics to look a lot better than they are. I personally would never pay for someone else's gambling advice, that's a slippery slope imo.
     
  3. Rebel_LioN

    Rebel_LioN Red Belt

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    How this Fury guy is popular, I'll never figure out. Dude is goofy as hell and a terrible person in general.
     
  4. Gerald Ford

    Gerald Ford Purple Belt

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    AGREED

    you wanna know who will win, just ask .. its free
     
  5. Shawn91111

    Shawn91111 Brown Belt

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    I've followed Fury for a long time when him and Nick did their podcast, I still listen to his podcast but can see how he annoys people.
     
  6. RafailNadull

    RafailNadull Brown Belt

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    If they actually had a reliable way of estimating the probability of the outcome of a fight better than bookmakers, they could get extremely rich and would definitely not offer people to learn their picks.

    All such services are scams. Without exception. Everyone who knows basic economics and basic probability theory knows this.
     
  7. DR225

    DR225 Orange Belt

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    I've been in this scene for a long time and over the years there's only been two touts (people you pay for picks) that I'd trust. One of them does the nba and the other is in college basketball but I don't recommend messing with these guys unless your betting units are in the thousands.

    If you are just a recreational guy (ie not trying to make a living with this), then all you need to do is a lot of reading. make an account at the big betting forums (sbr, covers) and do all the reading you can in the mma forums and eventually you might pick up on the skills to do it yourself (don't bet based on sherdog threads!!!)

    Regarding the parlaywolf bs, don't even think about it. On their twitter they advertise a 93% winning rate on their "expert" picks, which is the funniest thing I've seen all day. If you can hit 60% betting the spread, that's pretty much a license to print money. Their expert picks are probably like those stupid parlays, you don't need to pay anyone for a machida/dias/cummings parlay...Any serious gamblers won't do parlays except for fun bets. I'd stay far away from these guys. Good luck man.
     
  8. gspfedkobe24

    gspfedkobe24 Black Belt

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    I am the best private message me for free exclusives
     
  9. surreyjack29

    surreyjack29 Blue Belt

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    Luca fury doesnt win too often I think Im gonna give parlaywolf a whirl its 40 bucks for one event and im planning on betting a large amount but Ill let you guys know how it goes
     
  10. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    Don't pay for picks, and it's also ridiculous to do unless you plan to commit to it long term.
     
  11. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    Just looked at parlaywolf and he's had solid results, but my god can his strategy bury you quick. If one of his "anchors" loses, it sets back his profits BIG time.
     
  12. surreyjack29

    surreyjack29 Blue Belt

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    I won a lot last event soo just gonna re invest that see what happens
     
  13. Pacemaker Joe

    Pacemaker Joe Silver Belt

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    Read the betting threads Oblivians puts up here for each event. Or any similar thread on another site. Free, decent advice, and lots of info. If you're paying for advice, sorry, you're a fool. Most of the handicappers for the betting sites do know what they're doing, so you're going to have a reasonably low return on investment over the long term, even with decent advice. Paying for it will just cut into that even more.

    If you're betting for fun, then just limit yourself to what you can afford and have fun. If you're betting to actually supplement your income, you better do your own research, not just rely on others.
     
  14. Tebowned

    Tebowned Boise Dime.

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  15. DoUEvenLiftBro

    DoUEvenLiftBro Brown Belt

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    MMA betting is generally much easier to win money on than for instance, the NFL. The results tend to make sense and aren't inconsistent like team sports.
     
  16. surreyjack29

    surreyjack29 Blue Belt

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  17. Timurd123

    Timurd123 Andy Hug Belt

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    Luca Fury has been getting lit up on here, the UG and Reddit, he basically got called out for lying to make his results look better, reacted like a child, and eventually it got real personal when someone posted court documents involving him and going mental
     
  18. Baianada

    Baianada Brown Belt

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    any handicapper who recommends parlays is either a shill or ignorant of sports betting in general, so avoiding them is already a big step in the right direction.

    just study tape by yourself.
     
  19. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    Parlay wolf's strategy makes zero sense. http://parlaywolf.com/2014/10/the-parlay-wolf-formula/

    There is no point in using these "anchors" and "add ons". He is using two heavy favs as anchors normally and then he has something like three "add ons" which are closer to even (or maybe underdogs) to make up his three bets. Essentially as follows

    Anchor 1 + Anchor 2 + Add on 1
    Anchor 1 + Anchor 2 + Add on 2
    Anchor 1 + Anchor 2 + Add on 3

    The risk of ruin is huge. His results are very limited and not long term for now. Also, favorites have been coming through quite a bit lately. Take for example May 2014 where Dillashaw upset Barao and Brooks upset Chandler. There were other big upsets if I remember right too. If you have anchors lose two events in a row, it's going to set you back.

    Why wouldn't you structure the above as 4 bets (one parlay and 3 singles):

    Anchor 1 + Anchor 2
    Add on 1
    Add on 2
    Add on 3

    His formula is exactly what long term bettors will tell you to stay away from.

    I will say as of now he does have a knack for picking winners though. Even though the results are short term only, I'm impressed at his pick rate and ability to string together the parlays. But man, that strategy can go sour quick.
     
  20. Jack V Savage

    Jack V Savage Secretary of Keepin' It Real/Nicest Guy on Sherdog Platinum Member

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    He used to post here, and he was basically an average Sherdog HW poster.
     

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