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Bernie and the Economy

Discussion in 'The War Room' started by Overtures, Feb 2, 2020.

  1. Overtures Guest

    Let's devote this thread to discussing the effects of Bernie's policies on the economy, whether good or bad. Which is to say, let's not limit this to his economic policies but how all of his polices would effect the economy.

    I have recently decided to back Bernie without knowing much at all about his platform. Here's what I do know -

    He supports student loan debt forgiveness.

    Great idea in my opinion. Student loans were given out far below sub-prime lending standards and it's drowning multiple generations in debt they will never pay off. If we relieve this burden from them, they will be can funnel their debt money into consumption or investment.

    He supports universal healthcare.

    Also good with me. I'd be more than happy to pay extra in taxes to help achieve this goal. The overall quality of life in the country would soar.


    Overall - I think Bernie's policies may slow the economy down, perhaps. But I see a net positive in the above. Secondly, the US Economy survived three years of market volatility due to Trump's trade war and erratic behavior. We're seeing something much more resilient than we anticipated.

    And lastly, what are the measurable differences between a good economy and a bad economy? And do I really want to let those measurable differences force my hand in making decisions that are against my moral impulses?
     
  2. VivaRevolution Banned Banned

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    Are you expecting more of a discussion then righties screaming socialism is bad mmmk?

    With maybe a libtard, and soyboy thrown in to mix it up?

    I mean I would love to have a discussion about Biden, or Warren's economic platform vs Bernie's, but I have no idea what their views are, outside of adopting a more conservative version of Bernie's platform.
     
  3. Overtures Guest

    If people really think Bernie is bad, now is their time to convince me not to vote for him.
     
  4. weed ベルセルク

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    oh shit you're not banned.

    praise be

    [​IMG]
     
  5. VivaRevolution Banned Banned

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    I didn't even get a warning.

    The mods aren't dumb. They could see all that monkey and ape talk for what it was, before I started flaming.
     
  6. Overtures Guest

    Who did you flame and about what?
     
  7. Overtures Guest

    Who did you flame and about what?
     
  8. VivaRevolution Banned Banned

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    My democratic pro-Israel thread.

    I'm pretty sure Shingami's army of alts decided to come back for round two, but this time he thought better of following me to the OT.

    He was trying to troll me into a ban, and I took it to the OT because I knew what was going on.
     
  9. Overtures Guest

    Who did you flame and about what?
     
  10. nostradumbass Steel Belt

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    Loan forgiveness is welfare for the rich, which bernie supporters screamed bloody murder about 5 minutes ago. Cool, every lawyer making way above average money get their loans paid off by middle class families and people whose families and themselves saved money to avoid debt get to pay twice for it. Yippee!

    Went to a trade school or started working instead? Fuck you, you just get to pay for college anyway without any benefit.

    It's a pander to the Veruca Salt millennial demo, who do get a short term benefit now and give no consideration to the fact that they'll be spending more themselves in taxes than their loan was even for and just know they appear to get something now, which is why they took out the loan in the first place.
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2020
  11. Trotsky Banned Banned

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    Wait, you think rich people take out loans at 6% annual interest? Instead of, you know, paying it without said interest?

    [​IMG]

    But, yes, student debt cancellation would also benefit the rich. And there's an importance to doing away with pedantic means testing: breaking down class divisions and establishing education as a public good.

    Also, in the past two decades, odious student loan debt has swelled in the ranks of low income earners due to the proliferation of predatory for-profit schools.

    https://talkpoverty.org/2016/05/02/why-student-loan-debt-harms-low-income-students-the-most/

    https://hechingerreport.org/the-new-low-income-big-borrower-of-student-loans/
     
  12. nostradumbass Steel Belt

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    Yet no suggestion of paying for it by taxing the fuck out of endowments of the schools that continue to raise tuition at obscene rates and created the problem? Nope, plumbers will pick up the tab.

    Elizabeth Warren was pushing this crap too, but her concerns didn't seem to be there when she was making $400,000 to teach 1 class.
     
  13. Trotsky Banned Banned

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    Plumbers will pick up that tab? What's being floated is a tax on the top 1% of income earners. Even under more graduated and expansive funding proposals, the vast majority of revenue would be generated by persons making well into six figures and very little, if any, would be derived from persons making under $50k. So either you're woefully misinformed or you're being dishonest about the funding of these programs and initiatives.

    And yet you were okay with the Republican tax cuts that shifted the revenue burden onto middle income earners and reduced the tax burden of the rich to the lowest in 80 years. And I'm sure you were fine with the gutting of public unions, the attempt of the AHCA to increase healthcare prices and throw millions off of coverage, and stuff like that. Just wtf.
     
  14. Pseudo Sane Black Belt

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    I'd like to focus on student loan forgiveness, since you have raised 2 massive (and separate) issues. Even student loan forgiveness is multi-faceted.

    It's obvious that the post-secondary education system, as currently constituted, is broken. Sanders' idea sounds good, but even apart from the issue of the upfront cost, and the moral hazard issues identified by @nostradumbass in having taxpayers retroactively subsidize educations through debt-forgiveness, I am not sure that it solves the issues with education in the long term.

    Sanders proposal, as I understand it, is this:

    1) forgive all federally-funded debt;
    2) buy up all private debt and forgive that too;
    3) start a tuition-free public college program; and
    4) cap student-loan interest for private schools and graduate schools at 1.88%.
    5) pay for this with a new tax on Wall Street transactions, which they say will raise $2.4 trillion over 10 years.

    Let's set aside that Wall Street will almost certainly not sit still and get taxed to the tune of $240 billion a year; tax avoidance is one of their main skills, after all. I think the finance sector as currently incarnated is largely parasitical on the real economy, so I wouldn't be too upset if they got crushed by this, but they will probably weasel out if Sanders wins. So this policy will not pay for itself.

    First, the existing student debt has been securitized and sold, which means that bondholders take a big hit in a large forced sale. The bonds only have value because they pay out interest over time. These bondholders are large institutions and pension funds. Since we are talking about roughly $1.6 trillion in loans, I am no expert on this stuff, and could be wrong, but I would be surprised if there were no economic repercussions from this (some good stuff will undoubtedly occur as well, since a bunch of ex-students will have a ton of disposable income which previously went to servicing debt, but the point is that even the forgiveness is not cost free, apart from the tax burden).

    Second, public colleges will have to be radically different from the current college experience in order to control for cost. I am not confident that this can be done. The real underlying crisis is that college costs way too much at this point, and offloading that cost onto the taxpayer, unless steps are taken to reduce overhead, will be cripplingly expensive. Reducing cost will probably require deep thinking about the purpose of education and the current structure of the university. Given that the cost of public primary and secondary education has also skyrocketed in terms of per student expenditures, along with post-secondary, I am not confident in the ability of government to reign in these costs. The public colleges, at this point, become yet another damn thing America cannot afford, although it hardly seems to matter at this point. Anyone who wants to exercise their brain can read this article on cost disease, which will help make you alive to the problem: https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/02/09/considerations-on-cost-disease/. I think I've posted it before. It's still worth reading.

    Third, I can't think of any good reason for continuing to over federally-funded or federally-guaranteed student loans on a broad scale, because the thing above that has enabled the bloat of college costs over time is federally-guaranteed student loans. Regardless of what is the underlying issue driving cost up is (some people blame administrative bloat, regulation, what have you), the only reason this bloat can exist is because the government has decided to backstop the loans. Absent the backstop, college prices drop; they have to, because otherwise people can't afford college, and the institutions all die. Now, doing this is radical, and would hurt a lot of people who would actually benefit from college, but I honestly don't think there are solutions that don't hurt people at this point.

    Fourth, another key issue is that we are over-credentialing people, and in a lot of cases it isn't accomplishing more from an economic perspective than a massive wealth transfer from young people to universities and their various hangers-on, and forcing young people to forgo 4 years of earnings. You simply don't need a degree to do most jobs. We need to get away from this credentialing problem. I cannot emphasize this enough. The problem, of course, is that from most employer's perspective, a college degree, in our world, is a filter for the unmotivated and the stupid. All things being equal, in a white-collarish office job, you will get a smarter and more pliable office drone if you select for literally any college degree over someone without a degree. It's a shitty filter, and super costly on a societal level, but that doesn't mean that it doesn't make sense for employers to use it as a filter. Which is how you get constant credential creep.
     
  15. Stoic1 Weapons are my religion

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    ^
    Bravo
     
  16. ElKarlo Titanium Belt

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    I don't have much time. But basically capitalism is good. But is an animal and must be controlled. Controlled via responsibility. People like ceos need to be responsible for what they do. They don't need to overhaul the whole system. Just make it so those at the top don't get to cash in no matter what the outcome. Do that and you solve most issues with capitalism
     
  17. ElKarlo Titanium Belt

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    Endowments and fake charity organizations like the LAST, Walmart family need to get taxed at corporate rates, annually.
     
  18. superpunch Banned Banned

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    Bernie plans to pay for forgiving student loans with a .5% financial transaction tax. That's a .5% tax on each stock, commodity, or derivative trade.

    Here's my analysis on that:

    It would lower your retirement portfolio by 55% of its value (buy = .5%, sell = .5%, 200% turnover/ year; .98^40 = just 45% your retirement portfolio remaining after 40 years). That doesn't even take into account transaction costs (brokerage commissions, bid/ ask spread) going up ~2000% under that tax, which will wipe out a bit more on top of that.

    Trading is electronic. So, trading would simply move to Singapore or Hong Kong and other not-transaction taxed markets overnight. Not actually banned in the US; but effectively banned in the US. Companies would simply get off of the New York Stock Exchange and list their companies onto foreign stock exchanges. People would simply stop trading oil and other commodities on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and start trading them on foreign commodities exchanges.

    Investment funds would also move accordingly.

    It's not an actual ban. It's just a make-the-US the worst place in the world to do it, make American investment funds the worst place in the world to have your money, and it's all electronic so it can all be moved overseas overnight for 0 cost de facto ban.

    Ultimate Irony: The goal is to collect tax revenue on a financial transaction tax. On top of offshoring huge American industries, it will actually lower tax revenue. The loss in capital gains taxes will be larger than any financial transaction tax revenue collected.

    So, the plan simultaneously manages to lowers tax revenue and destroy an entire American industry. Therefor, that still leaves student loan forgiveness unpaid for.
     
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2020
  19. superpunch Banned Banned

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    He supports mandatory (forced) medicare whether you want it or not instead of a public option. I don't want be on medicare for the rest of my life if I can afford not to be. I'm living overseas in a country with a public healthcare option right now and it's amazing. They have no need to force it on you because almost everyone wants to sign up voluntarily. The only people who don't sign up are the upper classes who can afford to spend more on the creme of the crop private healthcare plans. If it's such a good idea, I should want to sign up voluntarily; you shouldn't have to force it on me.

    What if medicare for all ends up sucking and now you're forced to be on it forever? That could happen and that's why it should be an option.
     
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2020
  20. superpunch Banned Banned

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    Another thing that bothers me is Bernie's energy policy. We're energy independent and can actually pull out of the ME for good now. We're energy independent and the world's largest oil producer because of fracking. We have discovered enough fracking reserves to power our country for more than the next 100 years. However, Bernie wants to ban fracking.

    That destroys one of America's fastest growing industries and takes us back to about 2003 in terms of being dependent on the ME:

    [​IMG]

    All that growth after ~2010 is fracking.

    I think a lot of Bernie's goals are great. Healthcare for everyone, making our universities accessible to everyone without bankrupting them. The rest of the free world has these things. We're the richest country in the history of the world; there's no reason we shouldn't have these things. It's shameful and embarrassing that we don't have these things.

    His ideas on how to get these things are crazy though.
     
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2020

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