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Bellator 253 - Caldwell vs McKee

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by careto, Nov 16, 2020.

  1. careto Black Belt

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    b253.png
    There are some fights that have interesting odds, like AJ at -185 and J. Jackson at -185. I have not seen much from Jaleel Willis but i know he is a former LFA champ and Lemmiger left a lot to be desired in his last Bellator appearances, so Willis at -185 could be good too. Lance Gibson Jr. has failed to impress and is facing a real test against a 12-5 opponent; Shane Krutchen at +255 could be a good gamble.

    Davis, Kennedy, Wilson, and Stots are good parley pieces, too.
     
  2. PuertoRican Gold Belt

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    This card looks crappy on paper, aside from the main event.

    I like AJ McKee to win, but I thought Caldwell would get more respect at the books.

    I like Benson Henderson at +165, but I assume his line will improve since he is moving back up to welterweight for this fight, and will be the smaller guy.
     
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  3. StewDogg11 Black Belt

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    Screw it give me Bendo and Caldwell as dogs.

    I actually thought Bendo was looking quite good against Chandler until he got cracked.
     
  4. careto Black Belt

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    I like Bendo but he will be under a significant size disadvantage against J. Jackson. I dont know if Bendo can overcome such problem at this stage of his career.
     
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  5. DabanggData The Big Ticket

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    Edited on Nov 18

    Parlay
    +320


    Cauley, Sullivan -286, 2 inch reach advantage
    Ferguson, Kevin ("Baby Slice"), son of Kimbo Slice -333
    Wilson, Jay Jay -417

    Stots, Raufeon -303
    Kennedy, Jeremy -435
    Davis, Joey -556

    Prediction article I saw:
     
    Last edited: Nov 18, 2020
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  6. careto Black Belt

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    I agree to those, except the Baby Slice fight. Kimbo's son isnt really all that. He will probably win but I wouldnt trust him with a parlay, though.
     
  7. Roads55 Brown Belt

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    I think bendo looking good was largely due to how lacking chandler looked until the KO. Seemed like a noticeable decline than previous fights.
     
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  8. StewDogg11 Black Belt

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    But besides the obvious size advantage I still think even a declining Chandler is a much better fighter than The Ass Whoopin’ Machine. Bendo has proven he can hang with bigger guys and we can’t rule out a screwy Bendo decision so I’ll take him at + odds.
     
  9. StewDogg11 Black Belt

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    Caldwell at +265 now? Sheesh I should’ve waited.
     
  10. I'm on Keith Lee and Bendo.

    If this was a 3 rd fight, I'd be all over Caldwell.
     
  11. piglord Black Belt

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    like keith lee for a small play, think the fight will be competitive and i highly doubt stots looks -300 in there.
     
  12. BigSteve Purple Belt

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    Anyone did proper tape on this card actually have plays? Im doing it tonight hopefully find something. So far Benson/Jackson is a pass, think it might be lined accurately. Benson is not a trustworthy dog in my opinion too low output now and does stupid shit.
     
  13. HuskySamoan Black Belt

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    I think the Kiichi Kunimoto fight tells us a lot about Jackson vs Bendo. Kunimoto had no trouble closing distance and getting the clinch, against the cage he got about 2 short lived takedowns and in round 1 scored a takedown, took Jacksons back and almost finished with a Kimura. Still, Jackson mostly dominated the fight by Kiishi is 39, not half the fighter Ben is and similar in size to Henderson. The fact that he could close distance when he wanted, clinch and found fleeting success on takedowns is nice, Jackson visibly tired in round 2 and 3.

    Ben needs to mix it up, kick at range, punch his way inside, clinch, cage fight, find grappling exchanges. He will be noticeably quicker and have a cardio advantage. Jackson really has no relevant wins, a shot Mein? Controversial decision vs 8-3 Ruth? Ben can strike unlike Kiishi or Ruth, he can pressure and transition through the phases of the game well. He also has a knack for winning decisions (Masvidal, Thompson, Edgar, Piccolotti, Cerrone etc) which this fight most likely goes to. I get staying away from it though, Jackson has 6inches of reach, is the bigger man and Ben's coming off a knockout loss at 37. Still, Ben has shown me vs Thatch (who I consider faster, bigger, more athletic, harder hitting and better at striking than Jackson) he can win this kinda fight...just 5 years detached.

    We will see, tomorrow will be a good night for me if Ben wins, +155 felt like good value.
     
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  14. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    I can see an argument for all dogs on the main card honestly.
     
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  15. svmr_db Brown Belt

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    Anyone feel there could be some narrative similarities between Caldwell vs McKee and the recent Archuleta vs Mix? Think McKee may come on strong, not find the finish and then Caldwell comes on stronger in the later rounds with veteran savvy.
     
  16. 2bet Green Belt

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    2u on Cauley for 1,36
    He is friends with Bader, that's enough for me lol

    Probably will also lay some money on Caldwell, that line is too ridiculous to pass up
     
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2020
  17. A lot of money came in on Keith Lee.

    Makes sense, it should be a close fight.

    Kind of second guessing my Bendo bet, he's not the same fighter he was when he moved up to fight Thatch damn near 10 years ago.

    Jackson has more paths to victory than he does.
     
  18. SolarSeiko Brown Belt

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    Darion's recent win over Borics makes me think he should edge a split over AJ McKee. I think Darion's camp is also slightly better if that plays any part in it.
     
  19. InTheCut Purple Belt

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    @Sadistics where you at?
     
  20. 2bet Green Belt

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    That could not have been any easier wow
     
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