Bellator 243: Chandler v Henderson II

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Am i missing something or this is great value for Mitrione?
A Millender + Jury parley sounds pretty good too. Im thinking of adding Chandler to the parley, too but im not sonsure about that one. Im thinking Chandler takes this via decision particularly because is a 3 round fight and Benson usually starts pretty slowly giving up the 1st round.
 
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Am i missing something or this is great value for Mitrione?
A Millender + Jury parley sounds pretty good too. Im thinking of adding Chandler to the parley, too but im not sonsure about that one. Im thinking Chandler takes this via decision particularly because is a 3 round fight and Benson usually starts pretty slowly giving up the 1st round.

Didn't realize that Mitrione is 42 years old, guess that could be why
 
3 rounds really favors chandler, i think he's such a bad match-up for bendo.
 
5 round fight I might lean Bendo, 7 round fight I’d definitely favor Bendo but think a 3 round fight favors Chandler.
 
How good is Georgi? I am pretty sure he is better then Gritz, and Jury looked like crap against him winning a 29-28.
Hate paying juice for low output fighters
 
How good is Georgi? I am pretty sure he is better then Gritz, and Jury looked like crap against him winning a 29-28.
Hate paying juice for low output fighters

Good fighter in his prime but he’s probably more past it than you believe Jury is.
 
Real question now is just how bad the Millender KO and Millender DEC lines are

Homasi is an Andy Wang-tier warrior and Millender is a more powerful, quicker mix of Muslim Salikhov + Jon Jones with none of the wrestling or BJJ defence
 
Im going to go out on a limb and say he thinks no lo. Both are juiced. I did Millander and Chandler but half a unit
LOL yeah, I guess he couldnt be bothered with a question. BTW, what do you mean juiced?
 
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LOL yeah, I guess he couldnt be bothered with a question. BTW, what do you mean juiced?

The thing is, if no value is seen in a line, parlaying 2 fighters won’t change that. The odds don’t magically get any better by combining them. If anything, you are compounding the -EV (negative expected value), meaning you are making it an even worse play, and a likely long-term loser. So anytime someone sees no value in an individual line, the answer to whether a parlay makes sense will always be “no”, unless they don’t understand the math involved.

“Juiced” just means that the line is more expensive than it should be, again, meaning negative expected value. A play on a -300 definitely might, and probably will win, but if you don’t think it wins more than 3 out of 4 times, it’s a losing bet in the long-run, meaning a juiced line / -EV.
 
The thing is, if no value is seen in a line, parlaying 2 fighters won’t change that. The odds don’t magically get any better by combining them. If anything, you are compounding the -EV (negative expected value), meaning you are making it an even worse play, and a likely long-term loser. So anytime someone sees no value in an individual line, the answer to whether a parlay makes sense will always be “no”, unless they don’t understand the math involved.

“Juiced” just means that the line is more expensive than it should be, again, meaning negative expected value. A play on a -300 definitely might, and probably will win, but if you don’t think it wins more than 3 out of 4 times, it’s a losing bet in the long-run, meaning a juiced line / -EV.
Awesome explanation, thanks for taking the time to explain to me.
 
No problem, it’s a constant learning process for everyone. Stay open-minded and objective and It’s possible to make some money in this game.
Yes, at first I just figured that if I really thought fighter 'A' was going to win then the odds didn't matter because you are going to make money regardless. Hence, the whole parlaying 2 fighters I thought were more likely to win. But I understand your explanation, if the odds are "juiced" it becomes an extra risky bet because the fight is closer than the odds suggest, so parlaying the fights is just compounding the risk. In other words, the reward is not worth the risk.
TBH, im not looking to make some money are anything of the sort, I like all MMA and I just think its extra fun to watch the fights while putting some money down. However, i don't want to be just throwing money down the drain either haha, so might as well understand the whole betting process before just putting money down.
 
Yes, at first I just figured that if I really thought fighter 'A' was going to win then the odds didn't matter because you are going to make money regardless. Hence, the whole parlaying 2 fighters I thought were more likely to win. But I understand your explanation, if the odds are "juiced" it becomes an extra risky bet because the fight is closer than the odds suggest, so parlaying the fights is just compounding the risk. In other words, the reward is not worth the risk.
TBH, im not looking to make some money are anything of the sort, I like all MMA and I just think its extra fun to watch the fights while putting some money down. However, i don't want to be just throwing money down the drain either haha, so might as well understand the whole betting process before just putting money down.

It can definitely be a fun little hobby even for someone who doesn’t plan on ever taking it too seriously, but even still, trying not to veer too far away from mma betting fundamentals will help your bankroll stay a lot healthier in the long run. Plus, winning is a hell of a lot more fun than losing!

Also, you raise a good point about beginners choosing a play on a “winner” regardless of the odds. I’ve seen lots of people over the years who were great at picking winners lose their shirt month after month because they couldn’t grasp the concept of value and had zero regard for bankroll management.

Having a knack for analyzing fights is obviously a key component to success, but it’s only half the puzzle. The other 50% lies in the numbers game and trying to put potential fight outcomes in perspective so that you can contrast them against the betting lines to try to find an edge.
 
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