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View attachment 788189
Am i missing something or this is great value for Mitrione?
A Millender + Jury parley sounds pretty good too. Im thinking of adding Chandler to the parley, too but im not sonsure about that one. Im thinking Chandler takes this via decision particularly because is a 3 round fight and Benson usually starts pretty slowly giving up the 1st round.
How good is Georgi? I am pretty sure he is better then Gritz, and Jury looked like crap against him winning a 29-28.
Hate paying juice for low output fighters
You are probably right. Georgi has always been solid, lots of his loses are to top guys in Bellator which i think would rinse Jury too. (mcKee, Sanchez, Weichel)Good fighter in his prime but he’s probably more past it than you believe Jury is.
@Sadistics any leans ol mate?
Do you think a Myles + Millender parley is worth?I'm not seeing much value, like all the favs but wouldn't play their lines
Im going to go out on a limb and say he thinks no lo. Both are juiced. I did Millander and Chandler but half a unitDo you think a Myles + Millender parley is worth?
LOL yeah, I guess he couldnt be bothered with a question. BTW, what do you mean juiced?Im going to go out on a limb and say he thinks no lo. Both are juiced. I did Millander and Chandler but half a unit
LOL yeah, I guess he couldnt be bothered with a question. BTW, what do you mean juiced?
Awesome explanation, thanks for taking the time to explain to me.The thing is, if no value is seen in a line, parlaying 2 fighters won’t change that. The odds don’t magically get any better by combining them. If anything, you are compounding the -EV (negative expected value), meaning you are making it an even worse play, and a likely long-term loser. So anytime someone sees no value in an individual line, the answer to whether a parlay makes sense will always be “no”, unless they don’t understand the math involved.
“Juiced” just means that the line is more expensive than it should be, again, meaning negative expected value. A play on a -300 definitely might, and probably will win, but if you don’t think it wins more than 3 out of 4 times, it’s a losing bet in the long-run, meaning a juiced line / -EV.
Awesome explanation, thanks for taking the time to explain to me.
Yes, at first I just figured that if I really thought fighter 'A' was going to win then the odds didn't matter because you are going to make money regardless. Hence, the whole parlaying 2 fighters I thought were more likely to win. But I understand your explanation, if the odds are "juiced" it becomes an extra risky bet because the fight is closer than the odds suggest, so parlaying the fights is just compounding the risk. In other words, the reward is not worth the risk.No problem, it’s a constant learning process for everyone. Stay open-minded and objective and It’s possible to make some money in this game.
Yes, at first I just figured that if I really thought fighter 'A' was going to win then the odds didn't matter because you are going to make money regardless. Hence, the whole parlaying 2 fighters I thought were more likely to win. But I understand your explanation, if the odds are "juiced" it becomes an extra risky bet because the fight is closer than the odds suggest, so parlaying the fights is just compounding the risk. In other words, the reward is not worth the risk.
TBH, im not looking to make some money are anything of the sort, I like all MMA and I just think its extra fun to watch the fights while putting some money down. However, i don't want to be just throwing money down the drain either haha, so might as well understand the whole betting process before just putting money down.