Argentinian here... let me clarify some things. You can ask me anything you want.
- First of all you guys need to understand that here is a different world when you talk about economics. Most of "rules" don't apply here.
- In the 2015 election both Macri (winner) and Scioli (peronist, from the Kirchners party) were the same. The only difference between them it was the speech but the economic teams of both were virtually identical: Really conservative.
- The Kirchners, while having left-oriented speeches was always fine with most of the international capital. The only times they weren't it was because the pie was not big enough and they could not feed everybody. But it is a full capitalist government.
People talk about socialism and is laughable. They bring the YPF nationalization but that was a rescue over Repsol more than anything else.. idiots clapped their hands in what was one of the biggest scams in our history disguised as a nationalistic decision.
- Macri and his whole team have zero idea on what they are doing or they just really don't care (I go with the second). They won over a platform of reducing the state deficit but not only they didn't do that but they made it worse.
They lowered taxes for agriculture exporters (friends of them) and a bunch of other concentrated sectors and they tried to compensate by raising taxes to the worker class.
They promised to cut state expenses and they failed at it.
- The deficit was so big that they had to got to the IMF to ask for money that we are in no condition to pay back. The next president party (Alberto Fernandez) issued an statement basically saying to Macri and the IMF "you fucked it up, you fix it". There were talks of bringing forward the final elections but Fernandez wanted nothing to do with that because it is better for them if Macri has to deal with the current situation by himself.
Sort of what happened in 2001 with De La Rua -> Duhalde -> Kirchner. you take a country in flames which has already done the heavy work (devaluation, cuts on social plans, etc) and look like a hero afterwards.
- The international investment here is basically a bunch of vultures that come here, force a devaluation, get incredible interest rates and leave a couple of months later.
The national industry is non existent.
- The other economic sector that gets the benefit of constant devaluations is the agricultre which is very concentrated and produce a lot for few. They are some of the worst crooks in this country. They overthrown governments, they put an insane amount of pressure on the exchange rate, they violate every single labor law we have here (they are the kings on unregistered labor and misery salaries), etc.
- On the other hand the working class is getting poorer by the day. The internal market has been destroyed.
I expect Fernandez winning the election in october easily. They will make a few adjustments and the internal economy will grow a little bit. People will have a few more bucks to spend and everything is going to be fine until it isn't again.. and we start all of this all over again.
