Anybody else feel like HW division will not see a dominant champ for some time?

[gtm3]

Yes, Cain won in dominant fashion in this fight, but he is always susceptible to getting KO'd/TKO'd by somebody like a JDS or an Overeem. He doesn't have the chin that somebody like JDS or Carwin does. I think with JDS, Overeem, Werdum in the division (and possibly Cormier / Barnett) it will be tough for one single person to establish themself with a long win streak, a la GSP or Anderson. In the 16 years that the belt has existed, it has only been defended a max of 2 times in a row, which is pretty crazy. While Cain is a great fighter, I just don't see this pattern changing. Was curious what you guys think.

 

[emax]

I basically would concur. The proof just isn't there that any one given HW is gonna be able to have all the necessary skills and endurance and durability and/or defensive tactics needed to secure a truly dominant reign. It is conceivable that the Reem or Cormier could be the one to do it - we have almost never seen a wrestling based HW pick up the striking game as effectively and rapidly as Cormier has and as for the Reem, well needless to say he can catch anyone and everyone by total shock. But we haven't seen any one fighter truly rise head and shoulders above his rivals in that division in 9 years and there hasn't been much in terms of phenomenal new talent, at least, not relative to FW, LW or WW divisions.

 

[emax]

I also think the same is true for Flyweight, Bantamweight and Lightweight - those divisions are just simply too truly stacked with dangerous rising talent for anyone to truly have a dominant reign. And even at WW, with GSP having to contend with Hendricks, Ellenberger, Martin Kampmann and possibly Damien Maia among possible others I just haven't thought of yet, I don't understand why everyone thinks it is a given GSP will simply cruise past everyone in this new wave of WWs.

 

[Natman2939]

lol oh you....

cain has a weak chin and is susceptible to getting ko'd because kongo dropped him a couple of times a long time ago, and because JDS nailed him with the overhand right to end all overhand rights, right on the temple (and he still didn't even go out cold, he had to be gnp'd to finish)

i think cain definitely has the potential to be a long time champion. ANYONE would be finished by the punch JDS knocked him down with

and nobody else has the lack of weaknesses that cain has. As much as I love the Reem, his cardio is very questionable; and he becomes hittable when he fights someone that makes him fear the takedown.

So if Cain gets by Reem, he could very easily be champion for a long time. There's no one but Reem left (cause Cormier won't fight him. So I don't even know why people bring that up)

 

[gtm3]

lol oh you....

cain has a weak chin and is susceptible to getting ko'd because kongo dropped him a couple of times a long time ago, and because JDS nailed him with the overhand right to end all overhand rights, right on the temple (and he still didn't even go out cold, he had to be gnp'd to finish)

i think cain definitely has the potential to be a long time champion. ANYONE would be finished by the punch JDS knocked him down with

and nobody else has the lack of weaknesses that cain has. As much as I love the Reem, his cardio is very questionable; and he becomes hittable when he fights someone that makes him fear the takedown.

So if Cain gets by Reem, he could very easily be champion for a long time. There's no one but Reem left (cause Cormier won't fight him. So I don't even know why people bring that up)

Yes, he is susceptible to getting KO'd because he's been KO'd and dropped a few times in the past, and he is in the HW division with some real big time sluggers. Much more susceptible than some other guys like JDS, Carwin, Hunt, Barnett, etc.

Question - what % chance do you think he has when fighting JDS and Overeem to win? 60%? 80%? Because even if he is a 4:1 favorite in each of his fights, he would only be expected to defended his title 3 times before losing it. Not exactly super dominant.

 

[Irenaeus]

Compared to the other divisions with some history, we've never really seen a dominant HW champ in the UFC ever. Chins are seldom strong enough to take HW punches and most large men aren't quick enough to reliably avoid getting hit, good conditioning is difficult to attain at such a mass, injuries are easier to pick up, and if you end up on the bottom, you'll have a much more difficult time escaping the position than a smaller man would.

It's far too many ways to lose. Staying on top for even a small amount of time is an incredible accomplishment.

 

[emax]

lol oh you....

cain has a weak chin and is susceptible to getting ko'd because kongo dropped him a couple of times a long time ago, and because JDS nailed him with the overhand right to end all overhand rights, right on the temple (and he still didn't even go out cold, he had to be gnp'd to finish)

i think cain definitely has the potential to be a long time champion. ANYONE would be finished by the punch JDS knocked him down with

and nobody else has the lack of weaknesses that cain has. As much as I love the Reem, his cardio is very questionable; and he becomes hittable when he fights someone that makes him fear the takedown.

So if Cain gets by Reem, he could very easily be champion for a long time. There's no one but Reem left (cause Cormier won't fight him. So I don't even know why people bring that up)

You place the UFC title on the line and Cormier WILL fight Cain. Close friends pound the living shit out of each other all the time in the UFC. It is business before pleasure in this promotion and most likely on all other serious MMA promotions as well.

 

[TankAbbott4Eva]

Compared to the other divisions with some history, we've never really seen a dominant HW champ in the UFC ever. Chins are seldom strong enough to take HW punches and most large men aren't quick enough to reliably avoid getting hit, good conditioning is difficult to attain at such a mass, injuries are easier to pick up, and if you end up on the bottom, you'll have a much more difficult time escaping the position than a smaller man would.

It's far too many ways to lose. Staying on top for even a small amount of time is an incredible accomplishment.

I pretty much agree with all of this. I think that Cain, JDS and Overeem could exchange the belt amongst each other for a few years. Having said that, I'm not sure if the next level of HWs (Werdum, Mir, Cormier, Silva etc) are good enough to compete with the top 3, so there is a bit of a gap there.

And it indicates how well Lesnar did to defend his belt a few times as well, may have even equalled the record for defenses in the HW division (?)

 

[Natman2939]

Yes, he is susceptible to getting KO'd because he's been KO'd and dropped a few times in the past, and he is in the HW division with some real big time sluggers. Much more susceptible than some other guys like JDS, Carwin, Hunt, Barnett, etc.

Question - what % chance do you think he has when fighting JDS and Overeem to win? 60%? 80%? Because even if he is a 4:1 favorite in each of his fights, he would only be expected to defended his title 3 times before losing it. Not exactly super dominant.

that's not how odds work. GSP is usually only a 5:1 favorite and he's defended his title 10 times

 

[Lysander]

JDS can improve and give Cain a challenge in a third fight but Cain will wreck everyone else.

Cain and Cormier won't fight.

Overeem doesn't have the TDD or cardio.

Let's just hope Cain can stay healthy this time and have some title defenses.

 

[gtm3]

that's not how odds work. GSP is usually only a 5:1 favorite and he's defended his title 10 times

It is how odds work (I have a mathematical background). All that means is that people putting money on the fights are underestimating GSP's abilities.

If somebody has a 93% chance of winning, you would not expect them to have 10 title defenses in a row. You would need a 94% chance of winning, every single time, to be expected to string together 10 title defenses. That's how odds work.

 

[Natman2939]

JDS can improve and give Cain a challenge in a third fight but Cain will wreck everyone else.

Cain and Cormier won't fight.

Overeem doesn't have the TDD or cardio.

Let's just hope Cain can stay healthy this time and have some title defenses.

The Reem is a very real threat. The cardio is the problem, but don't think that he doesn't have the TDD because consider this: Only ONE of Brock Lesnar's opponents was not taken down by him.

Cain was taken down big.
Couture was taken down big
Carwin was taken down
Mir was taken down effortlessly

None of those 3 great wrestlers could stop Lesnar from taking them down, but guess who did? Alistair "The Reem" Overeem. Brock never even came close to taking him down, and he even managed to grab a good single, but Reem shook it off easily

 

[emax]

The Reem is a very real threat. The cardio is the problem, but don't think that he doesn't have the TDD because consider this: Only ONE of Brock Lesnar's opponents was not taken down by him.

Cain was taken down big.
Couture was taken down big
Carwin was taken down
Mir was taken down effortlessly

None of those 3 great wrestlers could stop Lesnar from taking them down, but guess who did? Alistair "The Reem" Overeem. Brock never even came close to taking him down, and he even managed to grab a good single, but Reem shook it off easily

But do you think that was partially because Lesnar hadn't finished recovering from that stomach illness of some sort and was in his worst fighting condition ever and that is why he couldn't take down the Reem ? I am not saying this is or is not why but I know many MMA fans are convinced of this and was wondering if you were too.

 

[gtm3]

But do you think that was partially because Lesnar hadn't finished recovering from that stomach illness of some sort and was in his worst fighting condition ever and that is why he couldn't take down the Reem ? I am not saying this is or is not why but I know many MMA fans are convinced of this and was wondering if you were too.

I guess we'll never know, but Overeem looked damn good in that fight, and I think Lesnar said Overeem was incredibly strong afterwards. The Bigfoot fight should answer some questions though.

 

[Seven30]

I really don't care. As long as we get good fights & sensible, relevant match-ups, I'm good. I don't need to see one fighter reign supreme for great lengths of time to satisfy my fight jones. It can be awesome when it happens, but I, personally, don't find that to be a necessity.

 

[Natman2939]

It is how odds work (I have a mathematical background). All that means is that people putting money on the fights are underestimating GSP's abilities.

If somebody has a 93% chance of winning, you would not expect them to have 10 title defenses in a row. You would need a 94% chance of winning, every single time, to be expected to string together 10 title defenses. That's how odds work.

LOL it doesn't matter if you have a mathematical background if you don't understand how MMA odds work...

and here's why you don't: Because odds have NOTHING to do with defenses. If Champion A vs Contender B is a 5 to 1 favorite, the oddsmakers are not saying they expect 5 defenses from the champion.... that's not how odds work. The odds are simply in regards to the INDIVIDUAL FIGHT

You said earlier that if Cain were just a 4 to 1 favorite than that means they only expect X number of defenses from him, but no, that's not how odds work. If he's a 4 to 1 favorite than it means they're giving him a Y % chance to beat Opponent.

If he were fighting someone else the odds would be different. They change for each fight.

So while GSP was only a 2.5 to 1 favorite over Condit, he was like... a 9 to 1 favorite over Serra.

This doesn't speak to how many times they thought he'd defend his title, but more how easily they thought he'd beat serra

 

[ProteinFarts]

That division has not seen a dominant champ since, well, ever. I can't recall any HW champ successfully defending more than once or twice in a title run.

 

[purpleheart]

I dont think so, untill a truely wellrounded dangerous hw like Fedor arises we will see the crown by passed on and on.

I think in 2013 Overeem will hold it and will lose it again. Guys like Cormier and Barnett will always have a big chance of taking it from someone. Junior could get his back. AA will come soon and than he will put standup cliniques on people too.

These are exciting times for the HW division, not shallow at all.

Dont see Cain holding it for long though. Overeem will grapple with him as use knee's and guilliotines in the clinch were dos santos yesterday didnt do anything.

Still shocked junior lost though.

 

[Russie]

Nobody else right now can touch Cain and JDS. Cormier likely will compete at LHW for a while. Overeem will make it interesting but I can't see him winning thw HW title.

 

[Natman2939]

But do you think that was partially because Lesnar hadn't finished recovering from that stomach illness of some sort and was in his worst fighting condition ever and that is why he couldn't take down the Reem ? I am not saying this is or is not why but I know many MMA fans are convinced of this and was wondering if you were too.

I'd have to file that under "it's impossible to know"

unlike most fans, I'm not really a bias person. I root for who I root for but that doesn't really effect my judgement like most people (so while being the Lesnar nuthugger that I'm known to be, one might expect to me say "fuck yeah! Brock would've killed him if he hadn't been sick!" truth is... I personally doubt it. MAYBE if his gameplan were a little different and he pushed the takedown harder... ironically the cain fight scared him into not wanting to rush cause he gassed against cain, but I think it would've been the smart play against Reem... but if I had to bet, my money would be on the Reem, even against a healthy Lesnar...though I'd be wishing I was wrong)

I guess we'll never know, but Overeem looked damn good in that fight, and I think Lesnar said Overeem was incredibly strong afterwards. The Bigfoot fight should answer some questions though.

This. Sick or not, Lesnar said that he trained really hard for that fight and was in pretty damn good shape, and that Overeem was just that good. I believe him.