I am a big Fedor fan and have the up most respect for him and his decisions. When he signed with Affliction and Strikefoce I understood his decisions and interpretations of why he made those moves. Both were influenced by M-1 Global and his affiliation with them. Affliction was a upstart promotion and singed some good talent from the UFC and Strikeforce in 2009 had IMO a better HW division with Werdum, Overeem, Silva, Sergei, Arlovski, Barnett, Cormier and Rogers. It was in his best interest both times to sign with those promotions business wise and competition wise.
Fast forward to 2015 and we are in this scenario again. But what has changed is that Fedor no longer has any relationship with M1, in addition there is not one promotion out there that can even come close to competing with the UFC HW division. The best 3 guys in Belletor in Kongo, Volkov, and champ Minakov are not even top 10 in the UFC. Fedor has also made it clear that he wants to fight the best competition! So both those reasons of him not signing with the UFC are not present.
Therefore, I cant see any possible reason why Fedor would sign with anyone else but the UFC here if he is true to his word and wants to fight the best, as he said. Now if he wants to promote the sport in Russia and not take the come back that seriously? I would have no problem with him signing with a new promotion in Japan where he could fight in Russia and special events. But he did say he wants the best, Belletor is not that. For me its UFC or nothing and Belletor I would be upset with