IMO, this is a much more difficult fight to predict than people are acknowledging.
On one hand we have Mousasi, who is also coming off a lopsided decision to Machida and a long injury related layoff himself. Before that he won a very lackluster battle against....so guy who filled in for Gus.
Mousasi has very technical striking and an underrated ground game. But he appears to lack urgency in many of his fights. If he can't completely outclass Mark, can he outpoint him to a decision? Will the refs read it right.
On the other hand you have Munoz, who is 1-2 in his last three with 2 brutal KOs.
He looked great against Boetsch (meh), but that was a come back fight after Weidman knocked him into a full blown depression.
So we're down on Munoz right now, right?
Well, Mark has crazy power in his punches, if not great technique. And while his
5-star NCAA wrestling pedigree hasn't quite translated to MMA, its much better than Gegard's.
Wrestling and KO power can make for a very contentious fight, especially in a 5-rounder, and especially if it goes the distance.
I think picking Munoz @ +255 is a decent bet.