All Time Rankings - with numbers and formulas

[DizzyYeahYeah]

Are females excluded from the list?

MM, Weidman > Cain.

Cain 13-1 vs. Weidman 12-0 with 2 wins over the #1 and a win over #14.

 

[Pacemaker Joe]

Can you explain why GSP has a higher score than Fedor in HistQtrSum? It seems from the chart that Fedor was ranked higher for longer than GSP.

only in p4p. in his division, and when he had a high CurScore, he's lower.

 

[Air Lats]

Are females excluded from the list?

MM, Weidman > Cain.

Cain 13-1 vs. Weidman 12-0 with 2 wins over the #1 and a win over #14.

This is an excellent point. Are you seriously not going to reply to my request for Sonnen's position? Was I too jokey? Okay...

Wow .. It's amazing how much work and thought you've put into this! Awesome list ... I want to see the whole thing! C'mon, give us the top 1000!

 

[zec1234]

Here is how some fighters increased their ATT points in the previous quarter (2014Q4).

Fighters that didn't previously have a lot of success, can add more points in one quarter than fighters at the top.

Robbie Lawler added the most points in 2014 Q4.
additional AllTimeTotal = iOpponentWin + iOpponentAll + iHistQtrSum + iHistQtrBest + iHistQtrDominance + BasicCarScr + ChampPts + FightPctMark
120 = 47 + 28 + 21 + 4 + 8 + 5 + 6 + 1

Anthony Pettis added 88 points and Aldo 80.
T.J. Dillashaw didn't have a fight in 2014 Q4, but still added 20 points.
Johny Hendricks with a loss added 13 points.

Tito Ortiz had a win over Stephan Bonnar, but that gave him just 3 additional points. His average Opponent points even decreased slightly.
Mauricio Rua and Miguel Torres both decreased their ATT by 2 points.


In the whole year 2014 (4 quarters) we have following fighters with the biggest increase:
T.J. Dillashaw (430)
Robbie Lawler (230)
Jose Aldo (180)
Chris Weidman (170)
Khabib Nurmagomedov (165)
Donald Cerrone (150)

Jon Jones had just one fight in 2014 and added 125 new points.

 

[Minnja]

Pretty weird to see Mighty Mouse at 37. Generalyl speaking the guys under 145 seem to be hurting from the system. I think the system is very interesting and appreciate the effort put into it. Fun to look at these type of things.

 

[roventu]

Interesting stuff! Although Rickson's record is actually 400-0...and climbing!

 

[Rudeboyben84]

Sorry to be a pain in the arse but can anyone post the top 20, I love these sort of things but the image on the main thread wont display in work.

Wanted to ask about openweight figths as well. Say Royce Gracie being a Ww or a Mw and having multiple wins over heavyweights? Does this carry any weight?

Cheers.

 

[RafailNadull]

Where is Conor, shouldn't the Greatest of All Time top such a list?

 

[zec1234]

Pretty weird to see Mighty Mouse at 37. Generalyl speaking the guys under 145 seem to be hurting from the system. I think the system is very interesting and appreciate the effort put into it. Fun to look at these type of things.

You are correct about lower weight category fighters. And that is easy to explain - it's all about opponent level.
Level of competition in Flyweight is still very low and even though Mighty Mouse is dominating that division, his iOpponentAll index is not that high.

This graph shows how division (weight Category) strength was changing historically:

Demetrious is also relatively young inMMA (less than 8 years fighting) and he will be going up rapidly.
He will probably get additional 60 - 90 points in 2015 (depending on the fight results) and will pass Hayato Sakurai, Rich Franklin, Ken Shamrock and Renato Sobral.

 

[zec1234]

Sorry to be a pain in the arse but can anyone post the top 20, I love these sort of things but the image on the main thread wont display in work.

Wanted to ask about openweight figths as well. Say Royce Gracie being a Ww or a Mw and having multiple wins over heavyweights? Does this carry any weight?

Cheers.

Here is top 20 for you in the text form:

1. Anderson Silva
2. Georges St. Pierre
3. Fedor Emelianenko
4. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
5. Matt Hughes
6. Dan Henderson
7. Wanderlei Silva
8. Jose Aldo
9. Jon Jones
10. B.J. Penn
11. Randy Couture
12. Chuck Liddell
13. Quinton Jackson
14. Lyoto Machida
15. Mauricio Rua
16. Urijah Faber
17. Bas Rutten
18. Takanori Gomi
19. Tito Ortiz
20. Cain Velasquez


Regarding weight difference. We have a special Fight Mark for this. Depending on how big this weight difference is we are giving +/- points on the fight level.
So it is already part of the everyday calculation.

As part of ATT this weight difference has a separate index in FightPctMark:

FightPctMark = WinPct + (pctWinFinish + pctAllFtFinish)/4 + FtTopOppBigEvt + sizeDiff + mWrongClose + mDominExcit/5

sizeDiff

 

[ib313]

George Box

 

[zec1234]

Are females excluded from the list?

MM, Weidman > Cain.
Cain 13-1 vs. Weidman 12-0 with 2 wins over the #1 and a win over #14.

Females are in a separate database, so they have their own ATT list.

Cain is ranked higher because he was on the top of the division much longer.
Cain has 14 quarter-ends as #1 in the division (rk1ctg=14), Weidman has 7 and MM has 11.
Similar for top 10 P4P (top10p4p), Cain=17, Weidman=7 , MM =9.

 

[zec1234]

iHistQtrSum = isHFRkP4p + isHFRkCtg + isHFCurScr

iHistQtrSum is a summary index calculated from Historical Fighter (Quarterly) Rankings and Historical Current Scores.
It is based on the quarter counts (number of quarters from historical rankings). Here are example for those quarterly counts:

 

[Rudeboyben84]

Here is top 20 for you in the text form:

1. Anderson Silva
2. Georges St. Pierre
3. Fedor Emelianenko
4. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
5. Matt Hughes
6. Dan Henderson
7. Wanderlei Silva
8. Jose Aldo
9. Jon Jones
10. B.J. Penn
11. Randy Couture
12. Chuck Liddell
13. Quinton Jackson
14. Lyoto Machida
15. Mauricio Rua
16. Urijah Faber
17. Bas Rutten
18. Takanori Gomi
19. Tito Ortiz
20. Cain Velasquez


Regarding weight difference. We have a special Fight Mark for this. Depending on how big this weight difference is we are giving +/- points on the fight level.
So it is already part of the everyday calculation.

As part of ATT this weight difference has a separate index in FightPctMark:

FightPctMark = WinPct + (pctWinFinish + pctAllFtFinish)/4 + FtTopOppBigEvt + sizeDiff + mWrongClose + mDominExcit/5

sizeDiff – plus/minus points for the size (weight) difference

This is not very important factor today, but in the openweight era, guys like Royce Gracie and Kazushi Sakuraba had a substantial benefit from this factor.
On the opposite side, we have guys like Semmy Schilt that has negative points from the weight difference mark.

Thanks for posting that, great work.

Thats a very fair way to treat the old guard. List looks absolutly perfect, after seeing your list as a "fedor nuthugger" im starting to accept that Silva and GSP may have surpassed him :icon_cry2

Out of interest how are Hw fights treated when there is no weight limit? would this apply in the same way as openweight fights? Would seem weird to get extra points for armbaring Hong Man Choi...

 

[MusterX]

GSP's strength of schedule is greater than any fighter in history with almost more top 5 wins than Anderson Silva and Fedor combined. I feel he should be #1 but I'm alright with the list, #2 is sufficient.

 

[zec1234]

Thanks for posting that, great work.

Thats a very fair way to treat the old guard. List looks absolutly perfect, after seeing your list as a "fedor nuthugger" im starting to accept that Silva and GSP may have surpassed him :icon_cry2

Out of interest how are Hw fights treated when there is no weight limit? would this apply in the same way as openweight fights? Would seem weird to get extra points for armbaring Hong Man Choi...

Size Difference mark is applied only when the smaller fighter has close or lower rating than the bigger fighter.
That excludes Fedor (rating 35) - Choi (rating 8) as a candidate for fight with size difference.

This size factor increases if there are multiple divisions between fighters.
Examples of drastic size differences:
Semmy Schilt (HW) - Takafumi Ito (LW/WW)
Dan Severn (HW) - Pat Miletich (WW) - [ they fought in 1998 and result was Draw ]

 

[SeattleFightFan]

shouldn't you weigh heavier opponents more (see what i did there?)

Minowaman should be top 100!

interesting updates TS. ELO is tough, and it appears you have made some very solid adjustments!

like how college football went with both a coaches poll and computerized, i think ELO in conjunction with traditional polls / rankings is better than either one alone.

 

[Renzo Gracie NH]

Look pretty good to me. Interesting to see Igor get his due.

 

[zec1234]

GSP's strength of schedule is greater than any fighter in history with almost more top 5 wins than Anderson Silva and Fedor combined. I feel he should be #1 but I'm alright with the list, #2 is sufficient.

I would agree with that. And that is what my numbers show. GSP is the only fighter with overall Opponent index over 900:

Hendo had more high level opponents and that is why he has highest iOpponentAll (399).
But he has less Wins over those high level opponents.
Since Wining is more important than just fighting strong opponents, iOpponentWin carries more points.

 

[jjjjjjjjjjohnny]

After getting inputs from multiple places (including Sherdog forum), we made some changes in our All Time Ranking algorithm.
Here I will present the final numbers and the theory behind new formulas.
It will take me some time to put everything into this thread, so be patient.
You are welcomed to scrutinized any number or formula and let me know what would you like to see.

Before I go into theory, I will give some numbers as an example.

Here is what probably most people are interested in. Top 20 All Time Ranking:

A few comments about top 20:

Most of the top fighters are close to have final ATT number.
AS and GSP will still add a few points, but I don't believe it will be more than 20 additional points.
Fedor, Hughes, B.J, Randy, Chuck - they are all done and ATT should be final.
Big Nog and Dan might add few more points.

Aldo and Jones will continue going up rapidly. Next quarter (April 2015) they should pass Wanderlei.
In 1 year from now they should both add additional 120 to 150 points. That should put them at #4 and #5.
Jones has shorter career than Aldo, but he is accumulating points faster. If that trend continues, Jones should pass Aldo in 3 or 4 Quarters.
Of course, that all depends on how they do in the future fights.

Fedor is only top 20 fighter without UFC fight.
Only Urijah and Gomi were never in top 3 P4P (Gomi was #4 once).

Nice work!