All Time Rankings - with numbers and formulas

Discussion in 'UFC Discussion' started by zec1234, Jan 22, 2015.

  1. zec1234

    zec1234 Brown Belt

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    After getting inputs from multiple places (including Sherdog forum), we made some changes in our All Time Ranking algorithm.
    Here I will present the final numbers and the theory behind new formulas.
    It will take me some time to put everything into this thread, so be patient.
    You are welcomed to scrutinized any number or formula and let me know what would you like to see.

    Before I go into theory, I will give some numbers as an example.

    Here is what probably most people are interested in. Top 20 All Time Ranking:

    [​IMG]

    A few comments about top 20:

    Most of the top fighters are close to have final ATT number.
    AS and GSP will still add a few points, but I don't believe it will be more than 20 additional points.
    Fedor, Hughes, B.J, Randy, Chuck - they are all done and ATT should be final.
    Big Nog and Dan might add few more points.

    Aldo and Jones will continue going up rapidly. Next quarter (April 2015) they should pass Wanderlei.
    In 1 year from now they should both add additional 120 to 150 points. That should put them at #4 and #5.
    Jones has shorter career than Aldo, but he is accumulating points faster. If that trend continues, Jones should pass Aldo in 3 or 4 Quarters.
    Of course, that all depends on how they do in the future fights.

    Fedor is only top 20 fighter without UFC fight.
    Only Urijah and Gomi were never in top 3 P4P (Gomi was #4 once).
     
  2. Gungir

    Gungir White Belt

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    I take issue with iOpponent all. If I'm not derping it up, it is weighted towards the rating of the opponent at the time of the fight, but still accounts for later wins and losses.

    If you change the forumla to exclusively use the ranking at the time of the fight, I think it would be more accurate. For example, Jones is getting a raw deal because many of his opponents have gone on big loss streaks after fighting Jones.

    What happens to your numbers if you remove the factor from the formula?
     
  3. zec1234

    zec1234 Brown Belt

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    And here is another example with some random fighters.

    [​IMG]

    This will help you familiarize with some numbers.

    Royce was 11 times (quarter-ends) ranked in top 3 P4P, but Igor faced stronger opponents.
    Jeremy Horn fought 9 times against fighters that were ranked top 5 in division. But no wins against top 5. Same with Minova (8-0).
    Travis Fulton has over 250 fights and only 4 were with top 5.
     
  4. zec1234

    zec1234 Brown Belt

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    Thanks for looking into my formulas. They might look complicated for some people.


    Here is how each iOpponentAll index is calculated.

    iOpponentAll = isOppRkP4p + isOppRkCtg + isOppCSR + iaOppCSR + iOppBest

    isOppRkP4p – indexed sum that describes P4P rankings for all opponents at the time of the fight
    isOppRkCtg – indexed sum that describes Category (divisional) rankings of all opponents
    isOppCSR – indexed that is using sum of Current Scores and Current Ratings for all Opponent at the fight time.
    iaOppCSR – index based on average Opponent Score (1 to 1000) and Opponent Rating (1 to 35).
    iOppBest – index based on the best rankings and scores (maximum from all opponents)

    All of those are based on the rankings and scores at the time of the fight. Current is at the time when fight happened.
    As I said before, for current we use both the numbers immediately before and immediately after the fight.

    The only measure that is not current and we use it in some calculations is called Career Rating.
    It represents rough overall career achievement. Maximum possible value is 35, and 5 fighters have that maximum value.
    This is used in just a few formulas and have a very small impact on ATT score.
     
  5. GamePunisher85

    GamePunisher85 PRIDE FC 4 LIFE

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  6. Lappish Shaman

    Lappish Shaman Purple Belt

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    I'm surprised Werdum is not on top list
     
  7. Shaddows

    Shaddows Steel Belt

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    Shouldn't older fighters get some extra points?
    I mean, it must have been harder to fight guys with different styles back where no one trained on all facets of Martial arts like now.

    Just trying to be fair to all...
     
  8. zec1234

    zec1234 Brown Belt

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  9. zec1234

    zec1234 Brown Belt

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    When we are talking about All Time Rankings, two most important factors are:
    1. Who were fighter
     
  10. zec1234

    zec1234 Brown Belt

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    Werdum is not on the top 20 list, but he is on
    the Top 50 All Time list:

    [​IMG]

    Werdum is right now ranked at #25 and in couple of quarters he will probably pass Tito and Funaki.
     
  11. zec1234

    zec1234 Brown Belt

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    Final formula that includes all 8 major indexes is:

    AllTimeTotal = iOpponentWin + iOpponentAll +

    iHistQtrSum + iHistQtrBest + iHistQtrDominance +

    BasicCarScr + ChampPts + FightPctMark


    Here are major indexes values for 8 fighters:

    [​IMG]

    Dan Henderson had strongest opponents.
    GSP has most wins over top opponents.
    Anderson has best historical rankings.
     
  12. MIKE BOWLING

    MIKE BOWLING Purple Belt

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    ts boss "stop dicking around on sherdog and do what your paid to do."
     
  13. zec1234

    zec1234 Brown Belt

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    Here is how each major index is calculated.


    iOpponentAll = isOppRkP4p + isOppRkCtg + isOppCSR + iaOppCSR + iOppBest

    isOppRkP4p
     
  14. barehanded

    barehanded Purple Belt

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    Best rankings!
     
  15. BisexualMMA

    BisexualMMA Don't Put My Name in the Name of Steroids!

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    The top 20 seems to be pretty in line with what I would think is right subjectively.
     
  16. Pacemaker Joe

    Pacemaker Joe Silver Belt

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  17. zec1234

    zec1234 Brown Belt

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    iHistQtrSum = isHFRkP4p + isHFRkCtg + isHFCurScr

    iHistQtrSum is a summary index calculated from Historical Fighter (Quarterly) Rankings and Historical Current Scores.
    It is based on the quarter counts (number of quarters from historical rankings). Here are example for those quarterly counts:
     
  18. zec1234

    zec1234 Brown Belt

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    FightPctMark = WinPct + (pctWinFinish + pctAllFtFinish)/4 + FtTopOppBigEvt + sizeDiff + mWrongClose + mDominExcit/5

    WinPct - win percentage
    pctWinFinish - finish rate for Wins
    pctAllFtFinish- finish rate when all fights are included
    FtTopOppBigEvt - score for fights with Top Opponents and in Big Events
    sizeDiff
     
  19. cyrusthevyrus

    cyrusthevyrus Black Belt

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    Irrelevant.
     
  20. Jew Jif Shoes

    Jew Jif Shoes Brown Belt

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    Really cool to see the amount of thought put in to calculating the rankings, I always enjoy your threads.
     
  21. Air Lats

    Air Lats Gentlemen, this is democracy manifest! Platinum Member

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    Conner not in top 3. List is irrelevant.

    J/k. Pretty cool list - I'd love to see where Sonnen is because some dude in the 24 hour fitness sauna was trying to recall his name and in order to help me meet him halfway he was saying things like "you know, the champ ..." and "you know, the guy that is the best in the world ..." After I had named about ten fighters he finally gushed, "you know, Chael Sonnen". I just said, "of course, how silly of me".
     
  22. Lavos

    Lavos <img src="http://i.imgur.com/WS3eKt2.png">

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    Did you do Shinya Aoki? Where did he rank? He has a surprising number of top 10 wins.
     
  23. zec1234

    zec1234 Brown Belt

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    AllTimeTotal score is a number that describes fighters overall MMA achievements.

    Fighters build their legacy through fighting top opponents, winning, reaching the top and staying there as long as possible.

    ATT point increase is not linear and is not a set value.

    Some up-and-coming fighters can gain more points than established fighters.
    In our formulas we have parts that calculate maximums and averages.
    When you are fighting better and better opponents, those maximums and averages are going up.
    Once you reach the top, it is hard to increase those maximums. And averages might even go down.

    - Dan Henderson already has so many top10 wins that another top10 win will mean that much for his legacy.
    But for fighters like Brad Tavares, that top10 win would mean a lot.

    - Being #1 in the division is nothing new for Jon Jones. But when T.J. Dillashaw reached #1, that was a big deal for him.

    - Tito Ortiz already fought the best opponents and now in Bellator he cannot expect to collect much more ATT points.

    - When you have 100 or even 50 fights, one more fight doesn't really have a great effect on your overall legacy.


    Let's see how fighters are acquiring new ATT points.

    High level formula has following 3 groups:
    All Time Total = Opponents + Historical Quarterly Rankings + Other Fighter Stats

    Opponents group indexes gets new points only when fighter has a new fight. It is mostly plus points, but it can also be a small amount of negative points.
    Other Fighter Stats group also gets additional points with new fights. This can be + or - points.

    Historical Quarterly Rankings is a group of indexes where additional points are added on a quarterly basis.
    At the end of quarter, based on the fighter rankings, high ranked fighters get final points for that quarter.
    New quarter starts with fresh points and those points can change by the end of the quarter (if fighters ranking changes).


    Some scenarios.

    1. When somebody is #1 P4P and is not fighting for 1 year.
    This fighter will continue receiving his Quarterly ranking points, but will have no new fight/opponent related points.
    He earned that #1 spot and it is OK to have that recognized in next couple of quarters. After that he will start slipping in rankings and that Quarterly addition will be lower and lower.

    2. When somebody is fighting a lot.
    That fighter might improve his Opponent score, but that is not linear and not unlimited.
    Win portion of points depends on what were those wins.
    Quarterly points will be same as for those that are not fighting in that quarter - depends on ranking.

    3. What happens when somebody retires.
    We don't automatically stop his points intake. He still gets ranking related quarterly points. He earned that with previous fights.
    But, without fighting, he will drop down in rankings and eventually stop getting any new points.
     
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2015
  24. SuperLuigi

    SuperLuigi Black Belt

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    Can you explain why GSP has a higher score than Fedor in HistQtrSum? It seems from the chart that Fedor was ranked higher for longer than GSP.
     
  25. zec1234

    zec1234 Brown Belt

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    Now we will take a look at some actual numbers to describe ATT dynamics.

    Full formula that includes all 8 major indexes is:

    AllTimeTotal = iOpponentWin + iOpponentAll +

    iHistQtrSum + iHistQtrBest + iHistQtrDominance +

    BasicCarScr + ChampPts + FightPctMark



    Let's start with first quarter of 2015. This quarter just started and it will not be finalized until Apr 1st.

    On January 1 new quarter was opened and some fighters received additional points based on their current ranking.
    Those points are all in Historical Quarterly Rankings group.

    Jon Jones is #1 P4P and he received 21 points = 15 [iHistQtrSum] + 0 [iHistQtrBest] + 6 [ iHistQtrDominance].
    15 [iHistQtrSum] = 7 [isHFRkP4p] + 4 [isHFRkCtg] +4 [isHFCurScr]

    Jose Aldo gets 18 points and Chris Weidman 16.
    Anderson Silva is now ranked much lower, but still gets little less than 2 new points.


    Then Jon Jones defended his title on Jan 3. This fight gives him following additional points:
    53 = 25 [iOpponentWin] + 16 [iOpponentAll] + 6 [BasicCarScr] + 6 [ChampPts]

    Daniel Cormier doesn't get any new points in iOpponentWin, but it gets a lot of new points in iOpponentAll (50).
    Cormier gets a lot of new points in iOppBest (best opponents) and iaOppCSR (average). But, Jones is not improving his best or average opponent part.
    BasicCarScr for Cormier goes down slightly (because he is no longer undefeated).
     
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2015

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