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What's up Sherbros.
This one is a long one, you have been warned.
Yan vs Sterling is one of the most intriguing matchups in the next year, and while the UFC is on a bit of a break I thought what better time to rewatch a bunch of fights and write up how I think Yan vs Sterling is going to go.
I have rewatched 11 fights in total, Sterling's last 7 and Yan's last 4. I will be breaking it down into 4 compartments, striking, grappling, clinch, and predictions.
Striking:
Starting off with the striking, as this is where I expect most of the fight to take place. Sterling's striking is mainly based around his movement. He is long for the division, with a reach of 180cm, compared to Yan's 170cm. They are both the same height, although Aljamain has longer legs.
Sterlings standup game revolves around fighting on the outside, at a very long range, with sudden bursts of inwards activity, either for the clinch or shooting for a takedown. He is fast compared to Yan, and will have a noticeable speed advantage with his movement and kicks. Yan, being a pressure fighter who relies on trapping opponents up against the fence, will encounter difficulty doing so with Sterling, as his stabbing front kicks, teeps, headkicks, jabs and looping hooks will keep distance far better than any of Yan's previous opponents. The bursts of inwards activity are what keep opponents from getting comfortable and pressuring at will, however this will also be when Yan has his best opportunities to inflict damage.
Yan, coming from an amateur boxing background, utilizes a classic russian boxing system. Some of his techniques I would personally like to point out is the way he will throw a combo wrongly for a couple of rounds, and then in rounds 3,4,5 will start throwing it the right way, which can catch fighters off guard. He is a master at conditioning responses, and especially against a fighter like Sterling who relies heavily on his head movement, this might catch him at some point later in the fight.
Another of his techniques is his way of changing the speed at which he throws his punches. This again is his way of conditioning a response out of his opponent, where he will get a fighter used to the speed at which he throws his punches/combinations, and then he will speed up or slow down dramatically, using this to throw off their timing.
He loves trapping his opponents against the fence, and then stinging them with hard right hands. If Aljo gets too comfortable up against the fence, I could see a knockdown happening.
Sterling has made a style out of doing unorthodox striking, however I think for this fight he should stick to the relative basics. Yan has power, fast hands, and he isn't afraid to eat one to throw one. He is especially dangerous in close, so it will be a test of who can keep their range better. I see Sterling's movement and long range attacks causing a lot of problems for Yan, and if Sterling simply keeps at it, and has the gas tank for 5 rounds, I can see him winning a painless decision. However, in his fight with Munhoz, we saw Sterling not only gas, but willingly stand in the pocket. To his credit, he beat the crap out of Munhoz up close, but against Yan he can't do this. If he does, he is getting hurt.
Yan's pressure is heavy, but I don't think he is fast enough to catch Aljo. His cage cutting is very good, but Aljo has historically done well against pressure heavy fighters, and his movement is superb even in the face of good cage cutting. Whether Aljo's cardio is good enough to keep up for 5 rounds, we will see. I also would point out that while both fighters have solid chins, Yan's seems on another level, so if anyone is getting KO'd in this fight, it is Sterling.
TLDR: I favor Aljo in the striking, I think he has a stylistic advantage over the flat footed striking of Yan, and I think he will pick him apart from range.
Grappling:
I don't expect to see much grappling in this fight, and here is why. Firstly, Yan is an excellent defensive grappler. His trips and throw are great, his hips are sharp, and he has quick reaction times. Aljamain's primary way of taking people down is to dive for a single or double, and I just don't see him having a ton of success doing this.
The other way of Aljo initiating a takedown is if he gets Yan up against the fence, and takes his back like he did to Sandhagen, however Yan is far more defensively sound than Cory is, and he is very strong in the clinch, plus with his forward pressure I doubt there will be many opportunities for a back-take to happen.
Yan, although he will use his offensive grappling is his opponent is gassed, like in the Aldo fight, basically uses it defensively, and even when he trips his opponents he often lets them back up to their feet. I doubt he will be the one initiating the ground game.
If it does get to the ground, Alajamain has a nasty submission game off his back, and on top, however Yan's top pressure is very solid. Aljamain should have the advantage when it goes to the ground, especially if he ends up on top off a takedown or a scramble, however don't be suprised if Yan does serious damage if he ends up on top. Yan's hard to hold down as well, as we saw in the Rivera fight.
TLDR: All in all, I doubt it goes to the ground, but if it does, then Aljamain should have an advantage.
Clinch:
This is where it gets interesting. Both fighters love to use the clinch, and are both very comfortable at close range. However, a few key things go in Yan's favour.
1: Aljo often exits the clinch with his hands low. Against Yan, who swings for the fucking fences every time he exits the clinch, this will go badly.
2: The way Aljo exits the clinch leaves him susceptible to overhands and uppercuts, both of which are in Yan's clinch striking arsenal.
3: I suspect Yan is stronger than Aljo. I could be wrong, but if he is, then Aljo will have trouble striking at his own terms in the clinch, as Yan can enter and exit when he wants to.
This isn't to say Aljo doesn't have some tricks of his own. His spinning elbows and backfists could cause trouble for Yan, and his upwards elbow I see being very effective against Yan's style of guard, because he keeps his hand glued to the sides of his head, and the elbow can come right through the middle.
I think where Aljo is in the most danger is if he tries to enter the clinch with his hands reaching, as he did against Munhoz, where he was going for knees down the middle.
All in all, I expect Yan to have a noticeable advantage in the clinch, and if Sterling is smart, he will avoid it in most occasions.
Predictions:
60 / 40 in favor of Aljamain Sterling.
I believe he has a noticeable stylistic advantage against Yan, and the most likely way this fight plays out is at range, on the feet, where Aljo should win a comfortable decision. (60)
However, Yan is always dangerous, and I give him an advantage in the clinch, and I could see Aljo getting KO'd off a clinch break, or if Yan's heavy pressure wears on Aljo's cardio enough to get a KO in the later rounds. (40)
I love this matchup, and it is going to be an awesome fight.
How do you guys think this one plays out?
This one is a long one, you have been warned.
Yan vs Sterling is one of the most intriguing matchups in the next year, and while the UFC is on a bit of a break I thought what better time to rewatch a bunch of fights and write up how I think Yan vs Sterling is going to go.
I have rewatched 11 fights in total, Sterling's last 7 and Yan's last 4. I will be breaking it down into 4 compartments, striking, grappling, clinch, and predictions.
Striking:
Starting off with the striking, as this is where I expect most of the fight to take place. Sterling's striking is mainly based around his movement. He is long for the division, with a reach of 180cm, compared to Yan's 170cm. They are both the same height, although Aljamain has longer legs.
Sterlings standup game revolves around fighting on the outside, at a very long range, with sudden bursts of inwards activity, either for the clinch or shooting for a takedown. He is fast compared to Yan, and will have a noticeable speed advantage with his movement and kicks. Yan, being a pressure fighter who relies on trapping opponents up against the fence, will encounter difficulty doing so with Sterling, as his stabbing front kicks, teeps, headkicks, jabs and looping hooks will keep distance far better than any of Yan's previous opponents. The bursts of inwards activity are what keep opponents from getting comfortable and pressuring at will, however this will also be when Yan has his best opportunities to inflict damage.
Yan, coming from an amateur boxing background, utilizes a classic russian boxing system. Some of his techniques I would personally like to point out is the way he will throw a combo wrongly for a couple of rounds, and then in rounds 3,4,5 will start throwing it the right way, which can catch fighters off guard. He is a master at conditioning responses, and especially against a fighter like Sterling who relies heavily on his head movement, this might catch him at some point later in the fight.
Another of his techniques is his way of changing the speed at which he throws his punches. This again is his way of conditioning a response out of his opponent, where he will get a fighter used to the speed at which he throws his punches/combinations, and then he will speed up or slow down dramatically, using this to throw off their timing.
He loves trapping his opponents against the fence, and then stinging them with hard right hands. If Aljo gets too comfortable up against the fence, I could see a knockdown happening.
Sterling has made a style out of doing unorthodox striking, however I think for this fight he should stick to the relative basics. Yan has power, fast hands, and he isn't afraid to eat one to throw one. He is especially dangerous in close, so it will be a test of who can keep their range better. I see Sterling's movement and long range attacks causing a lot of problems for Yan, and if Sterling simply keeps at it, and has the gas tank for 5 rounds, I can see him winning a painless decision. However, in his fight with Munhoz, we saw Sterling not only gas, but willingly stand in the pocket. To his credit, he beat the crap out of Munhoz up close, but against Yan he can't do this. If he does, he is getting hurt.
Yan's pressure is heavy, but I don't think he is fast enough to catch Aljo. His cage cutting is very good, but Aljo has historically done well against pressure heavy fighters, and his movement is superb even in the face of good cage cutting. Whether Aljo's cardio is good enough to keep up for 5 rounds, we will see. I also would point out that while both fighters have solid chins, Yan's seems on another level, so if anyone is getting KO'd in this fight, it is Sterling.
TLDR: I favor Aljo in the striking, I think he has a stylistic advantage over the flat footed striking of Yan, and I think he will pick him apart from range.
Grappling:
I don't expect to see much grappling in this fight, and here is why. Firstly, Yan is an excellent defensive grappler. His trips and throw are great, his hips are sharp, and he has quick reaction times. Aljamain's primary way of taking people down is to dive for a single or double, and I just don't see him having a ton of success doing this.
The other way of Aljo initiating a takedown is if he gets Yan up against the fence, and takes his back like he did to Sandhagen, however Yan is far more defensively sound than Cory is, and he is very strong in the clinch, plus with his forward pressure I doubt there will be many opportunities for a back-take to happen.
Yan, although he will use his offensive grappling is his opponent is gassed, like in the Aldo fight, basically uses it defensively, and even when he trips his opponents he often lets them back up to their feet. I doubt he will be the one initiating the ground game.
If it does get to the ground, Alajamain has a nasty submission game off his back, and on top, however Yan's top pressure is very solid. Aljamain should have the advantage when it goes to the ground, especially if he ends up on top off a takedown or a scramble, however don't be suprised if Yan does serious damage if he ends up on top. Yan's hard to hold down as well, as we saw in the Rivera fight.
TLDR: All in all, I doubt it goes to the ground, but if it does, then Aljamain should have an advantage.
Clinch:
This is where it gets interesting. Both fighters love to use the clinch, and are both very comfortable at close range. However, a few key things go in Yan's favour.
1: Aljo often exits the clinch with his hands low. Against Yan, who swings for the fucking fences every time he exits the clinch, this will go badly.
2: The way Aljo exits the clinch leaves him susceptible to overhands and uppercuts, both of which are in Yan's clinch striking arsenal.
3: I suspect Yan is stronger than Aljo. I could be wrong, but if he is, then Aljo will have trouble striking at his own terms in the clinch, as Yan can enter and exit when he wants to.
This isn't to say Aljo doesn't have some tricks of his own. His spinning elbows and backfists could cause trouble for Yan, and his upwards elbow I see being very effective against Yan's style of guard, because he keeps his hand glued to the sides of his head, and the elbow can come right through the middle.
I think where Aljo is in the most danger is if he tries to enter the clinch with his hands reaching, as he did against Munhoz, where he was going for knees down the middle.
All in all, I expect Yan to have a noticeable advantage in the clinch, and if Sterling is smart, he will avoid it in most occasions.
Predictions:
60 / 40 in favor of Aljamain Sterling.
I believe he has a noticeable stylistic advantage against Yan, and the most likely way this fight plays out is at range, on the feet, where Aljo should win a comfortable decision. (60)
However, Yan is always dangerous, and I give him an advantage in the clinch, and I could see Aljo getting KO'd off a clinch break, or if Yan's heavy pressure wears on Aljo's cardio enough to get a KO in the later rounds. (40)
I love this matchup, and it is going to be an awesome fight.
How do you guys think this one plays out?
